kotika98

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75 Comments

    • Sat Jun 28th 09:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Current Market: Investors Lack Fear
      No kidding, lack of fear! Somehow that does not ring true... when people are driving stocks down 4-5-6% in day on top of a 20-30-40% decline if it isnt fear i'm not sure what it is.

      BTW, The fact that people are dumping individual stocks, even those without any obvious problem, rather than buying protection on the index via options and driving up the VIX is perfectly consistent with extreme level of fear. In other words, when people are just getting pessimistic they may buy index put options, but when they are panicking they will be dumping the stocks in their portfolio (in mass). I think we are seeing just that.
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    • Thu Jun 26th 11:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Death of Market Fundamentalism
      and yes, what we need is the congress to set the price of oil... but ooops congress does not have jurisdiction over OPEC does it?
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    • Thu Jun 26th 11:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Death of Market Fundamentalism
      blah blah blah... somehow i doubt the economically illiterate senators will suddenly know how to put up effective regulation in any of the arcane areas under consideration, such as mortgages, financial markets, etc. The public knows as well as ever that strong-arm regulations prevent well-meaning people from getting what they need, whereas the crooks will always find a way to insert loopholes into any legislation.
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    • Thu Jun 26th 10:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Tribute to the Mysterious, Maligned Convenience Yield
      Krugman's analysis is nice, except that he goes from the assumption that the speculators driving up the price must be hoarding physical oil, and shows that that can't be true. However, allegation is that the speculators are using pure long positions in the futures. Such behavior is encouraged rather than discouraged by a futures market in backwardation. In other words, the key to the current situation is "roll yield", not convenience yield.
      For those that were not around, 3 years ago the front months were in strong contango, and that was hurting long speculators badly. My own estimation was that this negative roll yield would drive out the long speculators - but somehow the market went into backwardation again, and that was precisely the point when the new rally in oil developed...
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    • Wed Jun 25th 10:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Sun's Rising Over Japanese Stocks
      i think Japanese have amply proved they are not to be written off in the past five years, but your timing is a bit off. Nikkei is about 10% higher from its lows at the same time as every other market seems to want to hit new lows. The only reason Nikkei is not following is the yen, as you rightly point out, but i wander if the dip in the yen might be temporary. Consider that the prospect of a reversal in oil, combined with a recession in Europe will force the hand of Trichet - they may have to lower rates to the 1.5-2%. That is anyway where the euro interest rates should hang in in the long run, european economies being incapable of operating at a growth rate above 2% consistently.
      What do you think the long-run rate of GDP growth is for Japan?
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    • Wed Jun 25th 09:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Kodak Emerges from the Dark Room
      Having said all this, they are all over China, and their competitor Fuji is not. Chinese never had wide access to photography until recently, now they take pictures like mad, and because they for the most part dont have their own webpages to post them, they tend to print their digital pictures. Maybe there is something to Kodak after all.
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    • Wed Jun 25th 09:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Kodak Emerges from the Dark Room
      It looked just as cheap to me in 2000, at $40. They are not to blame for the emergence of digital, but the problem is that they were late to recognize what the eventual size of the company was likely to be, and late to downsize. If they said, you know what, our revenues are going to continue to shrink, but we will deliver good returns to the shareholders anyway - then i would believe them. Instead this talk of innovation, and wonderful new products such as a cell-phone camera is all bogus. Now come-on - a cell-phone camera in 2008? who are you trying to fool?
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    • Tue Jun 24th 11:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Trading for a Living Wise?
      funny you'd ask advice about trading from someone who clearly does not trade, but rather makes a living writing books about "investing".
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    • Tue Jun 24th 11:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Trading for a Living Wise?
      If I had a business of my own, no matter how small, I would not give it up for trading. But if you want to give up a dead-end dayjob for trading, by all means try.
      Younger people should join a daytrading arcade, if only just for the experience. If they like it and learn how to make money they can then go on their own. But for the rest, retired old geezers that is, remember the saying "there is a sucker born every minute"... Trading is for the young people with fast video-game earned instincts and for guys with math and computer science PhDs.
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    • Mon Jun 23rd 12:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will the Market Keep Falling? I Hope So
      When a solid stock goes down 50-60% you must assume that the sellers know something you do not. Just to inject a bit of common sense into this unrealistic discussion...
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    • Sun Jun 15th 11:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What's Keeping the Dollar Down?
      euro did not go from zero to 35%, people had deutchmarks and frenchfranks before then, and DM was always a "strong"curr... and USD was "always" falling ever since exchange rates became floating in 1971. governments "always" preferred to issue paper money to gold ever since paper money was invented. that doesnt stop USA from being the most powerful empire that ever was on earth. tell us something new!
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    • Fri Jun 13th 21:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Portfolio Planning and the Lost Decade
      First, you fail to specify what the defualt setting for the average return and volatility on the S&P500 is. The second thing is, I could calculate what that probability might have been with a calculator, no need for fancy-shmancy Monte-Carlo. You only need MC if you are doing a "dynamical" analysis where your decisions in subsequent periods depend on what happened in the meantime. The other way that MC is useful for financial plannning is if you want to consider the effect of regular contributions due to the dollar-averaging. Once again, for the purposes of this calculation of 10 year returns, you dont need MC (that is if you know what a log-normal distribution is)
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    • Wed Jun 11th 09:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Even in a Down Market, Growth Outperforms Value
      there is a simple explanation for al this, it is the financials that looked like they were good value a year ago, the financials were the sector with lowest price-to-book, and financials were the stocks to take the largest beatings. You need to look no further than Bill Millers troubles for a proof.
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    • Mon Jun 9th 04:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Aberration in Clear Thinking by JP Morgan
      JP Morgan analyst makes a valid point that the surge is due to the schooyear ending in May, with all those high-school graduates technically becoming "unemployed"... What do you say? The second point he makes is that the rises in unemployment come at the end of the cycle, which is absolutely true... last time sky came crashing down in 1990, the unemployment peaked long after economy was already growing. Well, this time we dont know if it has peaked, really, maybe it will continue rising to 8% in the next year or so, but personally i dont believe it possibly could.
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    • Mon Jun 9th 04:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Aberration in Clear Thinking by JP Morgan
      JP Morgan analyst makes a valid point that the surge is due to the schooyear ending in May, with all those high-school graduates technically becoming "unemployed"... What do you say? The second point he makes is that the rises in unemployment come at the end of the cycle, which is absolutely true... last time sky came crashing down in 1990, the unemployment peaked long after economy was already growing. Well, this time we dont know if it has peaked, really, maybe it will continue rising to 8% in the next year or so, but personally i dont believe it possibly could.
      View article »
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