How the iPhone and Poor Management Contribute to Apple's Downfall [View article]
professionals follow the stuff very keenly, so the accounting differences can only trip up the amateur investors of which Apple has aplenty...
i am not sure why you are so upset, though. This accouting treatment will make earning look *better* than they really are in the coming quarters (if sales contract). I would like to see instead a discussion of whether that is a real possibility.
Eight Reasons Bank of America Is Going to $20 [View article]
frankly, the most amazing thing for me is the strength of the conviction of everyone about whether this or that bank is a good investment. The truth is that it is hard to tell how much a leveraged entity is worth when the shit hits the fan. The ASSETS are a trillion the LIABILITIES are a trillion, and the worth of the company is ASSETS - LIABILITIES. When you substract approximately a trillion from roughly a trillion you might get 20 billion, or 50 billion, or zero, or a negative number. It DOES NOT MATTER what the market cap is - whichever way, it is a crapshoot! And unlike the roulette at the casino, there is really no way to assign probability of the different outcomes. At least in the casino if you bet on the red, you know the probability to win is precisely 18/38 = 47%.
Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold [View article]
how is a war in Gaza news? Maybe to someone who doesnt follow the international news, or maybe too young to remember just how old is this war? And, last time i checked there were no oil wells in Gaza. To finish this line of argument, I also doubt there are wealthy Gazans who will rush to buy gold as a way to save their savings from wartime inflation/devaluation.
Is the Bond Market Screaming Inflation? [View article]
blah blah blah ... i wish someone writing an a article about the failed bond auction would not descend into a doomy rant about how the country is going down the drain.
What you need is a calculation, and let me try here real fast. If the public debt in the US keeps going up and hits 80% of GDP in two years, it will take only an acceleration of inflation to about 5% from the long-term expectation of 2-3% to bring down the real, inflation adjusted deficit back into the 50% to GDP ratio. Alternatively, once the economy starts to recover for real, and the midterm elections are over with later this year, look for the Congress to raise interest rates. It will not take a huge increase to balance the budget, just the 25% to 28%, and the 28% to 33% would be enough.
So stop worrying and relax your sphincter because you are going to be had, no matter rain or shine.
what a bunch of bull! In America land is still unlimited, and home prices are a function of building cost only. You dont need to go back 50 or 100 years to try to guess what those costs are. Look at the annual report of DRHorton or Toll and you can find out precisely how much it costs to build every kind of house (depends on location a bit). Bare land values are 30-50K per lot and than cannot go neiter much lower not much higher. Bottom line - and those figures you cite confirm it, house prices go at the rate of inflation in the long run. Only in locations where land is no longer available without limit can prices become detached from building cost, and truly there is only Manhattan in the entire USA where there is not going to be an inch more of land to build.
Social Security: Bankrupt System Will Impact Markets Sooner than Expected [View article]
since someone raised the issue of illegals, perhaps its worth reiterating - illegal workers pay into but dot not receive a penny from the SS trust fund.
Here is how it works, I arrive to the USA, buy a fake social security card and number and get a job in a slaughterhouse, as a cleaner, or in a number of other shit jobs that unionized workers would not touch unless paid 60$ an hour. Social security payments get deducted from my paycheck and sent to the IRS, marked with my bogus SS number. IRS happily accepts the payments, never turns anyone in to the DHS, and of course never pays back a penny to the "illegal" immigrant. Have a nice retirement (paid for by the sweat of the illegals)!
Open Letter to Quant Funds: Now's the Time to Help Maintain Orderly Markets [View article]
The general law of the markets is that the "crap" has high beta - it always outperforms on the way up and always underperforms on the way down. What is so special this time?
western leaders are just as blatant about self-serving grand words, just that Putin does not have Harvard or Oxbridge educated speachwriters, so it all ends up sounding very crude. But i like his courage - he is basically saying, put your savings into rubles. No different from an american president saying he is in favor of "strong dollar policy". what a joke...
i think i'll convert my cabbage into Mexican Pesos, and i'm serious.
Bernanke's Great Lie: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression [View article]
dude, when you say "I will write a paper" you make it sound like you are a professional economist - but you are not. Seems like you havent read Friedman's paper explaining that gold standard in the form you are promoting is simply not possible.
You are onto something here, though. Your paranoid rants are probably caused by realization that the government ultimately decides how much your savings will be worth, and you dont like it. Neither do i, but getting onto gold standard would not change that.
Finally, Bernanke etal like fiat monetary system for precisely the same reason you dont like it - that they can control the money supply.
I look at the demand chart and see a trend, whereby jewelry demand is continuously going down for nealry 4 straight years. The nation with biggest demand used to be India because of its high inflation and unstable politics, but the situation is probably changed forever now. China had a good year for gold demand in 2009 because of some astrological justification for it being a good year to get married, but dont look for this to repeat in 2010.
Seeking High-Alpha, Low-Beta Countries (Part I) [View article]
Not bad, Suna, and it seems that the real conclusion is that high-beta is good. This is not the conclusion they teach in class, and most "serious" and "professional" type of people instinctively would not agree. But the data is quite clear. If you dont believe in statistics, just look at one datapoint.
During the past two years, the so called "stable" and "low-beta" developed markets went about 60% down, while "crazy" developing markets went down 80%. But in good years you can make much, much more, probably three times as much in the emerging markets. Then add the fact that good years outnumber the bad years by 5 to 10 times, and you have a recipe for investing success.
Capitalism, Socialism and 10-Year Returns of Country ETFs [View article]
the tax rates you are using are all wrong!
The US rate is much more than 25%, and China's is much less than 27%. India wishes it collected 43% of income, but doesnt.
If you are going to do statistics, you better collect more accurate data, and on more qualtities. Otherwise, you should just make an in depth analysis just on a couple of similar otherwise countries but which have a significantly different level of taxation.
Android Is Dead - Part 8: The S4 Fights Back - BUT... [View article]
Once a company achieves a firm No 1 it stays there forever. The product may become irrelevant over time, and profits may not be what they once were. Proof? GM, IBM, Microsoft, ATT, GE, CocaCola, Walmart, and a thousand smaller giants each forever dominating their own product niche. What that means, I dont know if 20 years from now smartphones will still be the most important hi-tech product, in fact i doubt, but I have no doubt whatsoever that iOS and Android will be the dominant two even then. (just like if you want to buy a 20$ soapbar phone, you'd still buy a Nokia)
Intel: Wait For Pullback To The Low $20s [View article]
if the first quarter earnings come in tepid, you will see maybe $24 within couple of weeks, but if it is so bad it slides to 21-22 then you should rethink whether you want to buy it or not.
How the iPhone and Poor Management Contribute to Apple's Downfall [View article]
i am not sure why you are so upset, though. This accouting treatment will make earning look *better* than they really are in the coming quarters (if sales contract). I would like to see instead a discussion of whether that is a real possibility.
Eight Reasons Bank of America Is Going to $20 [View article]
Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold [View article]
Is the Bond Market Screaming Inflation? [View article]
What you need is a calculation, and let me try here real fast. If the public debt in the US keeps going up and hits 80% of GDP in two years, it will take only an acceleration of inflation to about 5% from the long-term expectation of 2-3% to bring down the real, inflation adjusted deficit back into the 50% to GDP ratio. Alternatively, once the economy starts to recover for real, and the midterm elections are over with later this year, look for the Congress to raise interest rates. It will not take a huge increase to balance the budget, just the 25% to 28%, and the 28% to 33% would be enough.
So stop worrying and relax your sphincter because you are going to be had, no matter rain or shine.
Housing's Big Picture Isn't Pretty [View article]
Social Security: Bankrupt System Will Impact Markets Sooner than Expected [View article]
Here is how it works, I arrive to the USA, buy a fake social security card and number and get a job in a slaughterhouse, as a cleaner, or in a number of other shit jobs that unionized workers would not touch unless paid 60$ an hour. Social security payments get deducted from my paycheck and sent to the IRS, marked with my bogus SS number. IRS happily accepts the payments, never turns anyone in to the DHS, and of course never pays back a penny to the "illegal" immigrant. Have a nice retirement (paid for by the sweat of the illegals)!
Open Letter to Quant Funds: Now's the Time to Help Maintain Orderly Markets [View article]
Putin, the Economics Professor [View article]
i think i'll convert my cabbage into Mexican Pesos, and i'm serious.
Bernanke's Great Lie: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression [View article]
You are onto something here, though. Your paranoid rants are probably caused by realization that the government ultimately decides how much your savings will be worth, and you dont like it. Neither do i, but getting onto gold standard would not change that.
Finally, Bernanke etal like fiat monetary system for precisely the same reason you dont like it - that they can control the money supply.
Gold Demand: Not What You Think [View article]
Seeking High-Alpha, Low-Beta Countries (Part I) [View article]
During the past two years, the so called "stable" and "low-beta" developed markets went about 60% down, while "crazy" developing markets went down 80%. But in good years you can make much, much more, probably three times as much in the emerging markets. Then add the fact that good years outnumber the bad years by 5 to 10 times, and you have a recipe for investing success.
Capitalism, Socialism and 10-Year Returns of Country ETFs [View article]
The US rate is much more than 25%, and China's is much less than 27%. India wishes it collected 43% of income, but doesnt.
If you are going to do statistics, you better collect more accurate data, and on more qualtities. Otherwise, you should just make an in depth analysis just on a couple of similar otherwise countries but which have a significantly different level of taxation.
Android Is Dead - Part 8: The S4 Fights Back - BUT... [View article]
What that means, I dont know if 20 years from now smartphones will still be the most important hi-tech product, in fact i doubt, but I have no doubt whatsoever that iOS and Android will be the dominant two even then.
(just like if you want to buy a 20$ soapbar phone, you'd still buy a Nokia)
Intel: Wait For Pullback To The Low $20s [View article]
It's Hard to Feel Sorry for AT&T [View article]