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    • Fri Aug 8th 13:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      General Discussion on GNVC
      I am very long on Genvec. Let me point out one drawback which has not been discussed here or brought to anyone's attention. The PACT study is for the indication of advanced, LOCALIZED pancreatic CA. This is limited patient population as pancreatic CA is a very aggressive and rapidly metastatic disease. My concern here is that the possible approval is for a limited cancer population, hence, effecting the market share this drug will draw versus alternative treatment.

      The good news is that more cases can be treated with and endoscopic administration which makes the delivery more focal. This should be a strong determinant to its efficacy.


      On Aug 02 04:28 PM skitahoe wrote:

      > GNVC is in about a four month period of anticipation of the next
      > peek at the PACT Trial where I believe the price will move up because
      > with each day, week, and month that passes the data should improve.
      > I say four month because by December, if they've not yet taken a
      > peek, I believe anyone knowledgeable will be almost certain the data
      > will at minimum sustain the nearly 80% improvement TNFerade has made
      > over the SOC alone.
      >
      > No one can say for certain what the FDA will do, but if 17 months
      > or more of life is demonstrated by the drug at 92 events, vs 11 months
      > for the SOC, I believe GNVC should attempt to gain approval. Trials
      > to date have shown 19 months on average, so 17's the sort of number
      > that might be seen if the peek were taken now or in September. I
      > choose 17 because it's better than a 50% improvement, certainly worthy
      > of a review, but perhaps not approval at 92 events. A 20 to 25% improvement
      > is probably all that's required for approval in time, but that might
      > require several hundred, or perhaps even over 1000 events.
      >
      > I believe without a peek, the stock should see new annual highs by
      > November, they will continue to advance until a peek is announced
      > then a big upward move can be expected if the data sustains prior
      > data, or betters it.
      >
      > Gary
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