Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Cramer's 3 Misguided Comments About Berkshire Hathaway  [View article]
    BRK has been a disappointment since 1998. They have been consistently beaten by such mundate businesses as telecom and tobacco hands down. Maybe it's just not possible to get decent returns from a lumbering giant, but if that's the case, a dividend and or share buyback is timely. Maybe Buffet overstayed. Way to much hype for way too little return.
    Feb 29, 2012. 08:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Estate Market Just Hit Rock Bottom  [View article]
    lets see, carrying costs of residential real estate? 2% real estate taxes, 1.5% insurance, cost of money 4.5%, and real estate inflation running at 3% or less courtesy of the Fed? Near a bottom? hah. Zero inflation helps those who don't borrow money. Residential hell courtesy of the fed.
    Feb 12, 2012. 06:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As rumored earlier, Greek debt restructuring talks have collapsed, with private bondholders unwilling to accept the IMF's insistence of a greater than 50% haircut. "Under the circumstances, discussions with Greece and the official sector are paused for reflection on the benefits of a voluntary approach," says the IIF chief (negotiating on behalf of the bondholders).   [View news story]
    Which banks sold the CDS on greek debt?
    Jan 13, 2012. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Second Great Recession Is Possible In 2012  [View article]
    Thanks r.wayford, well said.
    Dec 19, 2011. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Student Debt Bubble  [View article]
    Spending huge amounts of money (going to expensive college) without doing an economic analysis (ROI if you will) on the product (college degree) is the problem. Anyone with a student loan problem just can't do math. The borrowing is just an extension of the real problem. Blame yourself if you have student loan debt. Parents need to blame themselves if they gave Johnny their retirement for school without a reasonable expection of a great return.
    Dec 16, 2011. 04:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographics Of The Lost Generation  [View article]
    Having children in that generation, I'm compelled to say that success requires putting down the video games you love, releasing the technology that consumes your productive time, and going out into the world with a hunger to win in real life. Those tech wonders you love so much are as much of a detriment to your success as any economic condition.
    Dec 16, 2011. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Who's The Sucker?  [View article]
    Absolutely correct, Paul. Those of us who played by the rules are the suckers at the table, even if not invited.
    Dec 16, 2011. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Bets On Long Recession And I Disagree  [View article]
    Recessions end when inflation starts. During uncertain time, only inflation can spur risking capital in industrial investments. The gold standard of the 1930's made that unlikely and that is a prime difference today. Controlled, predictable inflation will lead us out of recession. Not a moment before.
    Dec 16, 2011. 04:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Convergence Between Retail Gasoline And Natural Gas Prices  [View article]
    Aside from the unfortunate use of the word parity, a nice article. Natural gas generally suffers from inelastic pricing, resulting in hesitation to grow uses until the price is out of whack, and then the inevitable price spike. A stable supply, very long term contracts and expansion of industrial uses for natural gas should be a national priority. Shipping LNG overseas, not so much.
    Dec 16, 2011. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Elusive Credit Default Swap Payoff  [View article]
    Perhaps selling protection on .... credit is suddenly the easiest money out there.

    Suddenly? has the mortgage debacle faded already? Writing insurance without the need to pay off is always easy money. Ask AIG, or Buffet. It's who you know when you're in a jam.
    Oct 31, 2011. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Prices Threatening Double-Dip but Dynamics Are Complex  [View article]
    The overall discussion on real estate price declines leaves out the fundamental discussion that in the areas where the crash has been so devastating are generally where residential home buyers have been primarily land speculators. These are areas where the structure on top of the land is a minuscule percentage of the value of the combined asset. In areas where that is not the case, this housing crisis never occurred. Overwhelming, the structure on the property has not fallen in value more than its age less improvements would indicate; the fall is in the speculative value of the land. Is a residential lot really worth $5MM an acre?
    Apr 27, 2011. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fuel Price Breaking Point  [View article]
    Great macro article.
    Mar 7, 2011. 06:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Capacity Set to Grow by 50% Within 5 Years - Price to Remain Depressed?  [View article]
    Situation is interesting. What if this ridiculous price continues long enough that boardrooms believe it's the new pardigm, and a new infrastructure is developed to consume NG much as what happened when all the NG peaking stations were built and industrial coal power converted, and THEN the price normalized? If the repeat occurs, HRSG, micro turbines, etc. rally, for a while. NG supply is inelastic enough to cause ulcers.
    Feb 17, 2011. 07:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Evergreen Solar Retrenches  [View article]
    You have to smile when an 11 year old company is still talking about "burn rate".
    Jan 12, 2011. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Still a Trade in Aluminum?  [View article]
    Aluminum production cost is overwhelmingly driven by electric and gas costs. The industry historically relocates to minimize those costs. With the US push to eliminate grandfathered emission exemptions, leading to a more levelized electrical cost, a major shift in aluminum producer's profitability is likely. The winners will be those who have the capital to reinvent their process plants to seriously minimize their energy consumption per lb. The company that invests their cash first and best will win. Short term profitability suffers, long term survival ensures greater long term profits.
    Jan 12, 2011. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment