Seeking Alpha

keithfeather

keithfeather
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View keithfeather's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • $90 a Barrel Oil Is the Floor for Cellulosic Ethanol, Says Study [View article]
    Factor out the $ in the discussion. Energy is the only thing consumed. Historically in the US liquid fuel is valued at 3.8 times coal ( the cheapest energy source ) on an equivalent btu basis. The premise in the article calls for 10 times relationship, at the current low coal prices. It takes energy, primarily electrical, to make and do everything, from building the tractors to harvest, plant, process, build the plant, etc. If the cost of coal or electrical production from coal rises, the break even price for cellulosic ethanol increases at the same ratio. If cap and trade increases the cost to produce electrical power from coal by 40%, the breakeven point for cellulosic ethanol increases by 40% to $126. Best of luck catching this elusive mirage.
    Aug 13, 2009. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Homeowners Underwater [View article]
    "housing" decline seems to actually be a "land speculation" decline, which, when the folks in CA and FL have been getting mortgages where the land is valued at several million an acre, can fall a lot. Maybe a 1/5 acre of residential land in San Jose is worth $1.5MM, but it could just as easily be worth $100K tomorrow. Fun on the way up, not so fun on the way down.
    Aug 6, 2009. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas, Coal Producer CDS Levels Diverge on Earnings [View article]
    natural gas locomotives.
    Jul 31, 2009. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric Cars Could Dominate Market by 2030 [View article]
    First hurdle for EV is eliminating engines in golf carts and ATV. If they can't do that economically, it seems a stretch to think that they can viably replace cars.
    Jul 30, 2009. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unwise to Tax the Rich to Pay for Health Care [View article]
    Health care is a right? Take the $ exchange out of that argument and we get, "I (the poor) have the right to make you (a doctor, who studied for 12 years to hone a unique skill, miss out on bars, parties, and youth) take care of me regardless of how I arrived at this condition." How kind of you to offer to give away that which you worked so hard to achieve.

    Health care is a rational expense of the state in so much as there is a valid return for the investment. Beyond that it is charity, which I wholeheartedly encourage to those who will feel better by offering it.
    Jul 28, 2009. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unwise to Tax the Rich to Pay for Health Care [View article]
    Health care is a right? Take the $ exchange out of that argument and we get, "I (the poor) have the right to make you (a doctor, who studied for 12 years to hone a unique skill, miss out on bars, parties, and youth) take care of me regardless of how I arrived at this condition." How kind of you to offer to give away that which you worked so hard to achieve.

    Health care is a rational expense of the state in so much as there is a valid return for the investment. Beyond that it is charity, which I wholeheartedly encourage to those who will feel better by offering it.
    Jul 28, 2009. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget the 1930s; We're Reliving 1975 (Part II) [View article]
    One point not touched upon as a difference... the number of "entitlements" which are now pegged to inflation, CPI, etc. In the 70's, those folks shouldered the burden of high inflation. This time, not so much. Better hope that the fed never acknowledges inflation.
    Jul 28, 2009. 05:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Cap and Trade: Why It Has Been the Option of Choice [View article]
    Currently people make things and sell them using energy. In the future under any energy tax or trade program thousands of additional people will be paid to manage some additional program. Everyones standard of living just fell. How hard is this to understand?
    Jul 19, 2009. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Obama's Economic Policies Are Failing [View article]
    If, before bashing drug companies for profiteering, writers would actually look at the return shareholders have received from owning drug company shares over the last 20 years, they might rethink looking for medical cost reductions from those companies.
    Jul 14, 2009. 09:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad News: House Prices Are Stabilizing [View article]
    The macro premise is mis-directed. Housing is not a consumable, where the 2.5 to 4.5 year inventory on the market can be worked off by lower prices. The inventory still exists regardless of the transfer price. Builders will recover when the existing inventory is deemed unusable (bad location, poor condition, or destroyed, likely regional), or demand increases to to absorb the inventory ( second home purchases, increase in population). The latter is an ulikely short term situation, making the former the probable outcome, indicating a continuing regional glut and regional recovery for builders.
    Jul 14, 2009. 08:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 2 [View article]
    Maybe I misunderstood you before. Wasn't the crux of your article that this situation was inevitable? How can individuals be blamed for 80 year cycles?


    On Jul 13 02:30 PM James Quinn wrote:

    > Read the book before you open your trap. Ignorance like yours is
    > why we are in this situation.
    Jul 13, 2009. 02:35 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 2 [View article]
    Business is war, and war is business. Identifying a profitable venture with a probability of success encourages one to pursue the venture, whether that be market share or land and assets. The question might be, by 2025, continuing on the US path, will the US be able to defend its assets against a collaboration of competitors? Will the US have sufficient "partners" willing to risk their own existance to defend its own? Will the US be willing, or indeed be able to recognize, its need to risk its very existance to remain independent?

    Thank you for an interesting read.
    Jul 13, 2009. 01:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carbon Trading Set to Triple by 2012 [View article]
    Maybe the Chinese will finally find an outlet for their unwanted USD, buying emission credits, and not using them!! An ingenious way to shutter US manufacturing.

    Truly one of the most self destructive concepts of our generation.
    Jul 7, 2009. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Believe This Rally in Oil [View article]
    At what price liquid transportation fuel (oil, jet A, diesel, gasoline) is the fuel cost the predominant cost for transportation? For my needs, that is somewhere around $90/bbl, given the current dollar value. Below that, depreciation, maintenance, and insurance of cars and planes makes the fuel cost a less significant item. Market wise, I imagine that would be the current target.
    Jun 16, 2009. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carbon Cap and Trade's Possible Winners [View article]
    Personally believe carbon cap and trade will be another Y2K, but in the interim, a REIT like RYN could benefit from speculation about possible reforestation tax credits.
    May 27, 2009. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
106 Comments
141 Likes