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Charlie Stanton

Charlie Stanton
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  • Bernanke Put To Expire Worthless In March [View article]
    Thank you John. I agree with your reply.
    Mar 7 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke Put To Expire Worthless In March [View article]
    John Early: Would you agree that the federal reserve has artificially propped up equity prices indirectly, by keeping rates low? Essentially, shifting investors into equities and away from bonds. Then it is feasible that a "Bernanke Put" exists, not as monetary device, but as a psychological device?

    Since there is no correlation with equity prices and the fed's balance sheet, based on your analysis, I would say that the "Bernanke Put" is a psychological put, because it is forcing most investors to go into equities who would normally not be in equities. And that put will expire once rates begin to climb.
    Feb 26 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Could Take The Stock To $20 [View article]
    This is a hard market to quantify since their is no established market for weight loss pills other than non FDA approved products. As we all know, that is a very large market. Essentially this is a product without a market that will be highly desired. As such, I would place a much larger growth rate than 3.3% until 2014. (Note: In the short-term, GDP growth and industry specific growth rates do not need to match. It only matters when determining a terminal growth rate. Therefore, 3.3% is pretty low.)
    Jun 27 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • They Don't Ring A Bell At The Bottom [View article]
    All the market did was bounce off the most recent low of 1278 which is also the same point of where the market opened at the beginning of the year at 1277. This is a temporary bounce higher before a much larger decline.
    Jun 7 06:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-mart Stores Inc: Cash Flow Valuation Update [View instapost]
    Thanks for the detailed explanation. Professionally I am a private business appraiser, so I understand that you must make assumptions (i.e. discount rate, FCF) when preparing a valuation. Your assumptions seem pretty sound. Recently I spoke with Zeke Ashton of Centaur Capital Partners and he said that for his analysis he simply uses your same calculation of FCF. I enjoy your analysis and look forward to many more posts.
    May 27 01:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-mart Stores Inc: Cash Flow Valuation Update [View instapost]
    Why do you not use a Free Cash Flow to Equity since that is what you will ultimately pay for? Can you please provide further analysis on your CAPM analysis? What risk free rate did you use and for what date?

    Also, how about just analyzing the dividend paid. Using a simple dividend discount model, the dividend paid for the full year is $1.59. Multiply that by a sustainable growth rate of approximately 3% and you get: $1.64. If you capitalize the $1.64 by a capitalization rate of 3% (Your 6.09% WACC less the 3% sustainable growth rate) you get a stock value of approximately $54. It would be safe to assume this is an acceptable base value for Walmart.
    May 25 03:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Depot Inc: cash flow valuation [View instapost]
    Question: I noticed on a recent MCD valuation you did as well as this HD valuation (scenario 1) you have a 0% growth in the Terminal Value. Why is that? Clearly there will be growth into perpetuity. Also, what is your Free Cash Flow calculation? Are you doing FCF to equity or invested capital?
    Jan 21 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Find Bottoms for the SP500, Dow, Nasdaq and Russell 2K [View instapost]
    Honestly, I love your market commentary. Have you read a book titled "Aiki Trading". It is one of the best. Do you recommend any books?
    Jan 21 12:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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