J.D

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    • Sun Nov 16th 23:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Would a Trade War Help Solve the Problem of Excess Capacity?
      A great article. Thanks for taking a global perspective. All signs seem to be pointing to the unthinkable: that the crisis is actually worse than anticipated.

      Protectionism is now a significant threat though it will take time to play out (possibly years). In response to a strong recession, trade barriers will provide a short term boost to domestic production which will (eventually) leave voters with a false sense that things are improving. Global overcapacity is equally worrying as countries will dump on international markets, which will also contribute to protectionism.

      What about the prospects for deflation given over-investment in productive capacity caused by the global credit bubble?
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 16th 23:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Would a Trade War Help Solve the Problem of Excess Capacity?
      A great article. Thanks for taking a global perspective. All signs seem to be pointing to the unthinkable: that the crisis is actually worse than anticipated.

      Protectionism is now a significant threat though it will take time to play out (possibly years). In response to a strong recession, trade barriers will provide a short term boost to domestic production which will (eventually) leave voters with a false sense that things are improving. Global overcapacity is equally worrying as countries will dump on international markets, which will also contribute to protectionism.

      What about the prospects for deflation given over-investment in productive capacity caused by the global credit bubble?
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 1st 17:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      New Rules for Chinese Stock Market Investors
      I agree with Egan on "The World is Flat" is a waste of time (unlike The Lexus and the Olive Tree). However, if you're the kind of person who finds the internet novel and exciting or have never left your hometown, then you may enjoy the book.

      On Chinese stocks, " fundamental value" is similarly not applicable. How do you value government agencies masquerading as companies trading between themselves? It's not a real market.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 1st 17:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      New Rules for Chinese Stock Market Investors
      I agree with Egan on "The World is Flat" is a waste of time (unlike The Lexus and the Olive Tree). However, if you're the kind of person who finds the internet novel and exciting or have never left your hometown, then you may enjoy the book.

      On Chinese stocks, " fundamental value" is similarly not applicable. How do you value government agencies masquerading as companies trading between themselves? It's not a real market.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 21:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China: Bears May Get Their Day, But Bulls are Still in Charge
      Contrarian investing based on China Daily articles? Very exciting, but more suitable for publication April 1.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 3rd 03:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China Still Needs Revaluation, but How Much?
      A float is the way to go. China's economy is too large and complex to be managed by bureaucrats. A float would positively reinforce development of a real financial system.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 3rd 03:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China Still Needs Revaluation, but How Much?
      A float is the way to go. China's economy is too large and complex to be managed by bureaucrats. A float would positively reinforce development of a real financial system.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 31st 11:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Chinese Companies Need Stable Capital
      Chinese SOEs generally aren't being privatized, though some non-controlling foreign capital may be welcome. Current Chinese government policies favor the expansion of SOEs.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 30th 10:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Chinese Companies Need Stable Capital
      China needs to stop regulating spreads for lending and deposit rates if it wishes to develop a real financial sector. In the absence of market discipline, a policy-induced capital shortage at SOEs is a prudent outcome. The normal incentive of the financial system is to lend all it can which promotes massive over-investment. If China's already there, the only solution is years of relative under-performance. That will be tough for China, as the country depends on investment for sustained high GDP growth.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 30th 10:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Chinese Companies Need Stable Capital
      China needs to stop regulating spreads for lending and deposit rates if it wishes to develop a real financial sector. In the absence of market discipline, a policy-induced capital shortage at SOEs is a prudent outcome. The normal incentive of the financial system is to lend all it can which promotes massive over-investment. If China's already there, the only solution is years of relative under-performance. That will be tough for China, as the country depends on investment for sustained high GDP growth.
      View article »
    • Fri Jul 18th 07:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A U.S./China Comparison
      US is to China as apple is to orange. China has a long, long way to go before it can realistically be compared to a society where market economics, democratic values, a liberal media, and the rule of law prevail.

      Unfortunately, China's governing authorities remain committed to authoritarian governance, state ownership, and broad information control. When these objectives clash with market-oriented reforms, it is the market-oriented reforms which are put aside.

      China still has too much in common with North Korea and not enough with the US.
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 30th 11:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Anecdotal Evidence of Risks in China's Banking System
      Very interesting. I presume this is what you mean, the "instantaneous forward" inversion is very obvious:
      www.ecb.eu/stats/money...

      Any downturn will surely reveal numerous skeletons in the Chinese banking system. Was it ever really fixed? davidinchina's scenario looks very likely, and likely to continue irrespective of whatever quotas/controls are put in place as long as its generating a positive current return.
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 30th 11:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Anecdotal Evidence of Risks in China's Banking System
      Very interesting. I presume this is what you mean, the "instantaneous forward" inversion is very obvious:
      www.ecb.eu/stats/money...

      Any downturn will surely reveal numerous skeletons in the Chinese banking system. Was it ever really fixed? davidinchina's scenario looks very likely, and likely to continue irrespective of whatever quotas/controls are put in place as long as its generating a positive current return.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 26th 08:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Emerging Market Investing: Really an Ex-Communist Play?
      According to your methodology you should be selling China. Increasing government ownership + re-institution of price controls + increasing financial sector controls =move AWAY from free market.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 19th 06:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Chinese Revaluation: Be Careful What You Wish For
      I'm not sure why the context for China's FX regime is always whether and when and by how much it should revalue its currency. It's the wrong question. China is a big trading economy and officials don't have the tools or insight to administer such a complex system effectively, as they are now quickly learning. China needs to look at how to float its currency and avoid all the headaches that comes with the existing outdated system.

      There's a choice, act now and be lauded for great vision or wait and find that hot money, inflation, and instability eventually force a more disruptive and painful decision.
      View article »
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