J.D

"Wu Li Re Xin" - Irrational Exuberance in Chinese

Coming up on four years in China for me and the whole economy feels like a bubble. In a society where information is actively manipulated, stats are questionable, transparency is low, duplicity is high, and analysis is built upon partial facts and big assumptions it's only a matter of time before reality sets in. Smart money arrived a long time ago, the upside is currently limited and downside underestimated. No wonder Buffet's selling. And that savings? Better take a closer look if you think it's money in the bank. Think infrastructure and real estate development by state-controlled companies (aren't they amazing at generating profits - new paradigm?). Those companies getting a good return on their hefty stock market investments for now, but are turning the bubble market into a pyramid. Hey, the stock market - bastion of capitalism that it is - is 80% government controlled companies. Time to cash in and re-assess when the dust has settled.