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  • Even With A Near 5% Dividend Yield I Don't Believe Chevron Is A Buy [View article]
    Fred, the point is that now is the range to buy in to. You are someone who believes that they can call the bottom of the oil decline. That's called "market-timing" and does not work for the vast majority (although you may be the exception). We are now in a zone where buying a beaten-down stock whose price has become unhinged from fundamentals is a good idea. Will it go lower? Maybe. Will it go higher from here? Definitely.
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:45 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even With A Near 5% Dividend Yield I Don't Believe Chevron Is A Buy [View article]
    It's times like this when one should be buying. All of the fear and loathing about oil prices, and "the end of big oil", and solar this and ethanol that... We have seen this play out several times in the past. When oil is cheap, and there is fear in the air, the price of CVX, XOM, etc will be lower. This is when one should BUY. One should not wait for the price of oil to "stabilize" before buying. What kind of nonsense is that? Buy now, and continue to buy if the stock fades even more. Collect a 4-5% divvy while you wait for crude to rebound, and "stabilize"....
    Jul 27, 2015. 08:24 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Building Its Own Payment Ecosystem [View article]

    I agree lol! Whenever the bull to bear ratio of a stock exceeds 99% then we are on shaky ground! Even the bears on SBUX have recently capitulated and are now ardent bulls!
    Jul 26, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Building Its Own Payment Ecosystem [View article]

    I'd agree with you if we were talking about 3M, or PG. However, there is a huge amount of growth that will be occurring in Asia in the next few years. The P/E today seems reasonable given the growth potential. If you wait until SBUX trades at a P/E of 18, you will have lost out on some tremendous gains.
    Jul 26, 2015. 01:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Con Edison: Sometimes Going Farther Back Really Helps. [View instapost]
    P/E is not far off from historical average. Earnings are up over the last few years? I wouldn't own this company though unless I bought it at lower valuation because the dividend growth is only 1-2% per year, which lags the inflation rate.
    Jul 26, 2015. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Still Not At New Highs [View article]
    I am bullish on BAC for 2 reasons: improving earnings/tapering legal expenses/prospect of rising interest rates, and the capital return plan.

    Share buybacks will hopefully be executed aggressively while the stock trades below book value, and when the dividend starts to get hiked I think that BAC price will start climbing in earnest. I can see the divvy getting hiked at a rapid clip for the next few years as free cash flow improves, and legal expenses decline. BAC is emerging from the Countrywide mess, and now I think we will see the stock outperform.
    Jul 18, 2015. 03:05 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Scary Charts: July 16, 2015 Update [View article]

    You refer to "the cycle" as if one can simply contain our current/recent economic events in the confines of the notion of a "cycle". In the short term history (ie less than 20 years), there are no predictable cycles. Consider that in the great recession, there was a catastrophic destruction of wealth to the point that 6 years of major annual gains in the stock market have put us roughly where we were 8 or 9 years ago. Think about that. In spite of the gains that we have had, we are still only where we were 8 years ago! And the market is less valued than it was at that time on a P/E basis, Schiller or otherwise.
    Jul 17, 2015. 04:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Bank Of America Ahead Of Earnings To Avoid Further Losses [View article]

    You wrote this article with the title of "Sell Bank Of America Ahead Of Earnings To Avoid Further Losses".

    You were totally wrong. In fact, selling before earnings would have caused an investor to lose out on significant gains.

    Everyone is wrong once in a while. It's okay to be wrong since no one is perfect, and sometimes one just get surprised. All readers know this, and have ourselves made mistakes.

    But your credibility is seriously, and irreparably hurt, since you refuse to own your mistake and admit that you were wrong about selling before earnings.
    Jul 15, 2015. 10:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Bank Of America Ahead Of Earnings To Avoid Further Losses [View article]

    Don't forget that BAC is the government's ATM machine!
    Jul 12, 2015. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Bank Of America Ahead Of Earnings To Avoid Further Losses [View article]
    Don, Don, Don. Enough already.
    Jul 10, 2015. 03:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP: Lop About 10 Cents Off Your Earnings Guess [View article]
    Hey Specialist, are you now a BP bull? Lol.
    Jul 4, 2015. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece: The Slow Motion, Multi-Year Train Wreck [View article]
    While this is a superficial summary of the Grexit question, I agree with the premise of "ignore the noise". It is highly unlikely that Germany and the rest of the EU will stand by and watch Greece fall on its face. There is too much at stake. The EU will continue to help Greece limp down the path of extremely attenuated "austerity" if only to keep Greece in the EU. Believe it or not, a Greek exit would be disastrous for the EU.

    I have been accumulating cash for big swings in the market secondary to the Great Greek Drama. It is just noise, and I would bet the family farm that the EU will accommodate Greece in however many ways it needs to in order to keep Greece in the fold. There will of course be some volatility, hopefully great gobs of it, and this will serve the nimble cash-hoarder well. I fully expect to own a lot more equities by the end of the summer.

    What would be an excellent opportunity for us is if Greece does vote no to the austerity referendum. It will be volatility central, knowing though that in the end, the EU will buckle and Greece will remain in the fold.
    Jul 3, 2015. 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Way To Judge Past Performance: Part 2 [View article]
    Chuck, I love your articles. But as a stock-picker you haven't done that well. All of these picks were made in 2010, a time at which simply buying SPY would have beaten most of your recommendations. Stock picking, as I am sure you know, is much harder in a market like we are in now when everything is pumped up than when everything is oversold such as 2010.

    This is the inherent fallacy that lies in any stock picking analysis with picks made during the great financial crisis: any pick looks good compared to historical market returns, but almost every pick looks worse compared to SPY during the same time!
    Jul 1, 2015. 06:58 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great American Net Lease Company Begins To Claw Back Its Brand [View article]
    New name:

    Super Hellacious Investment Trust
    Jun 24, 2015. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taylor Swift > Apple [View article]
    Davidoff, I think you need some sleep.
    Jun 22, 2015. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment