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Rob O

Rob O
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  • Tesla's Non-GAAP Fairy Tale [View article]
    Which is fine. That is what makes this study a bit more relevant than looking at the aggregate roadster fleet. There are a lot of garage warmers.

    So as you said before, "[the roadster] is a poor model for the performance to be anticipated by consumers who plan to make a Model S their daily driver" as a population this is true.

    The study is conducted on participants who actually drive their vehicles and puts more miles on them annually than the average American does. You will notice this group drives twice as much as the average roadster owner.
    Aug 9, 2013. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Non-GAAP Fairy Tale [View article]
    They are arguing about this, because of the last point in your article where you stated you believe that the model S and gen3 can't exist together.

    I completely agree with the majority of your article, just not the easily countered jabs thrown in at the end and in the comments. They sadly took away from the rest of the article.
    Aug 9, 2013. 05:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Non-GAAP Fairy Tale [View article]
    My numbers come from a study published less than a month ago. It was a simple google search and I only breezed over it, but you can scrutinize it as you will.

    The participants drive their Roadsters more than the average owner or the average American for that matter.

    I am sure it is biased, based on the writer and participants, but no more than anything on SA. At least they used a somewhat scientific method and are open about the bias that exists.

    Regardless, the numbers are much different than your, "...a used 2013 Model S will have a significantly lower range due to battery degradation." And they have data supporting their claim.
    Aug 9, 2013. 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Non-GAAP Fairy Tale [View article]
    Maybe, I don't know if I can buy into the gen3 being a real threat that.

    Why would a consumer buy a new gen3 with options when they can get a used model S for around the same price? We all know hardly anyone is paying $35,000 for a gen3 and most will go for well over $40,000. Used auto sales eclipsed new by 280% in 2012 this trend isn't going to magically revert.

    Obviously there will be people who buy new gen3s over a used model S, but the major crowd that would buy a vehicle for $40,000 new wouldn't be buying for $100,000 new in the first place. See the various 3 series vs 7 series comments.

    And the comments below regarding the decline of battery life are sensational. 3 years will hardly be noticed, see roadsters. On average, after 100k miles and 6.25 years, roadsters retain 80-85% of original capacity. On old technology.

    A fun fact is that in 06 Musk gave guidance that a roaster should only have 70% battery life at 5years with 50k miles. So it completely over performed. Take this info as you will.

    John's apple comparison doesn't work. No one buys used computers. The majority of car purchases are used.

    I am not even a TSLA bull, I think it is way overpriced, but this is just logic.
    Aug 9, 2013. 03:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Left My Cheerleader Pom-Pons At The Door And Sold Activision Blizzard [View article]
    All very true. ATVI's track record is just better then their competitors. With that said, if ATVI is the best, it still isn't great for investors.
    May 12, 2012. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Left My Cheerleader Pom-Pons At The Door And Sold Activision Blizzard [View article]
    While I don't think ATVI is a buy, you can definitely trade around major releases which usually occur twice a year. It is worth noting that, on a 3 year chart, ATVI has at best been on par, and mostly outperformed by the NASDAQ. So it doesn't seem like a growth stock by any means.

    One topic that I feel is not being discussed is new Intellectual Property (IP). The ability to come up with the next big thing. This is what the gaming industry lives and dies on. Both Activision and Blizzard have been great performers with this (remember they only became one in 08). Activision was the Tony Hawk series, Guitar Hero and of course the blockbuster Call of Duty. Blizzard is Starcraft, Diablo and Warcraft. These are all iconic titles in gaming.

    All IPs have a life cycle, World of Warcraft is not immune to this. It has just proved to be more resilient. As most Blizzard games have. They have announced they are developing a new MMO IP. This will obviously be to pick up where World of Warcraft leaves off. I personally believe Call of Duty will be peaking shortly. Regardless ATVI has a 10 year contract with Bungie who produced Halo. They are also working on a new IP.

    What does this all mean? Well you state that ATVI has troubles ahead due to the decline in World of Warcraft subscribers. I disagree. The company is just approaching the uncertain part of its business cycle. Can the next IPs produce? Both Blizzard and Activision have proven time and time again that they can. Now Bungie is on their side. You could argue that Bungie is what made Xbox competitive so this is a good player to have. You also state that it is hard to have a competitive advantage. I also disagree. Blizzard and Activision are and have been Behemoths of the industry for a long time. EA is probably the only company that competes and it still gets dwarfed by what ATVI produces.

    I feel like Charles Margolis approach is probably the best if you want to be Long on this company. It certainly is an industry leader and should prove to be sometime. What that will do for your portfolio though is questionable.
    May 11, 2012. 06:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Activision Blizzard Have What It Takes To Keep Growing? [View article]
    I've been covering this company quite extensively in school, and we came to a $14 price target on ATVI. Diablo 3 releases on May. 15 and as always another Call of Duty title in the fall.There will most likely be a World of Warcraft title for Christmas and the next Star Craft title will probably come out after that.

    For this year, ATVI looks very strong. Its the future I am concerned with.

    Blizzard is going at all cylinders even though World of Warcraft has peaked and will slowly decline over the next decade. They do have another MMO in the works.

    The Activision side is uncertain. ATVI's main revenue stream is the Call of Duty series, and while it may have a blockbuster release this fall, it is questionable if this series can keep delivering the way it has been. The general feeling is this game is dying. Most of these titles have shelf lives, see: Halo, Guitar Hero and Tony Hawk. All of which were blockbusters but are now practically non-existent.

    ATVI's best chance is with the 10 year publishing deal they just struck with Bungie. Bungie produced the Halo series and are currently working on an unannounced IP. If they can come out with another franchise like Halo, ATVI should see constant growth, and a nice bridge between the Call of Duty line and Bungie's new IP.
    May 3, 2012. 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Already Liquidating? [View article]
    This only works if the cash they get for the sold assets is enough to cover liabilities. There is a good chance SHLD will not be able to cover its debts and still have something left for shareholders if it sells off all its assets.
    Mar 30, 2012. 03:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment