David Forjan's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/112790/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/115666-will-apple-record-another-halt-trading-big-beat?source=feed#comment-362494 362494
you just about nailed it.]]> Wed, 21 Jan 2009 20:13:23 -0500
you just about nailed it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115748-apple-like-starbucks-and-whole-foods-a-trend-that-s-past-its-prime?source=feed#comment-362468 362468
or stock manipulator wannabe]]> Wed, 21 Jan 2009 19:34:00 -0500
or stock manipulator wannabe]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114343-trade-apple-like-a-fool?source=feed#comment-353683 353683
I beg to differ. A support level is still an historical line in the sand. If so-called support exists for Apple at $79, then that level should allow support. But as Apple may drift toward that level, today's economy can throw wrenches in that analysis, at any time. Approaching $79, we could easily get news of a huge $800B stimulus package, and the market soars. Does that mean that the $79 was support? No. Or we could get news that China's economy contracted by 10%. Would that magic $79 provide any support? No. My point is that the markets today are subject to a huge effect at any time. So, to rely on some historical line in the sand is like putting your head in the sand.

And I might remind you that you called a market bottom some months back. That wasn't correct, as evidenced by your projection now. Then you were recommending to buy Apple. Now you're in a cash position. Why? Because we all don't know what to expect in this economy in the near term, technical analysis, or not.

As they say, your guess is as good as mine.

david forjan

On Jan 12 01:30 PM Zach Bass wrote:

> You assertion that TA relies on past events is completely off mark.
> TA uses patterns and various other tools to determine mob behavior.
> The measurement of this behavior has nothing to do with the types
> of behavior, or what influenced it, or what specific events happened.
> TA is simply an objective read on the limits to which that behavior
> was exerted.
>
> What you are describing is like saying that I can no longer measure
> that line with a ruler, because the line has been made with something
> not previously seen. Well, I don't care what made the line, I can
> still use the ruler to measure it.]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 15:05:02 -0500
I beg to differ. A support level is still an historical line in the sand. If so-called support exists for Apple at $79, then that level should allow support. But as Apple may drift toward that level, today's economy can throw wrenches in that analysis, at any time. Approaching $79, we could easily get news of a huge $800B stimulus package, and the market soars. Does that mean that the $79 was support? No. Or we could get news that China's economy contracted by 10%. Would that magic $79 provide any support? No. My point is that the markets today are subject to a huge effect at any time. So, to rely on some historical line in the sand is like putting your head in the sand.

And I might remind you that you called a market bottom some months back. That wasn't correct, as evidenced by your projection now. Then you were recommending to buy Apple. Now you're in a cash position. Why? Because we all don't know what to expect in this economy in the near term, technical analysis, or not.

As they say, your guess is as good as mine.

david forjan

On Jan 12 01:30 PM Zach Bass wrote:

> You assertion that TA relies on past events is completely off mark.
> TA uses patterns and various other tools to determine mob behavior.
> The measurement of this behavior has nothing to do with the types
> of behavior, or what influenced it, or what specific events happened.
> TA is simply an objective read on the limits to which that behavior
> was exerted.
>
> What you are describing is like saying that I can no longer measure
> that line with a ruler, because the line has been made with something
> not previously seen. Well, I don't care what made the line, I can
> still use the ruler to measure it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114343-trade-apple-like-a-fool?source=feed#comment-353485 353485
You may be right with your opinion, but your rationale is flawed. It's been flawed for some time now. Time to rethink.

Our current economic situation is so different than anything seen in the last 40 years, that technical analysis is not a viable tool. Technical analysis relies on interpreting current market trends in light of how past trends occurred and how they were reacted to. In other words, technical analysis interprets today in relation to history.

Since today's economy is one of only 2 or 3 similar situations going back to the Great Depression, all the past trends and market reactions you refer to and rely on are irrelevant.

There's too many unknowns in our economy to rely on things like support level. I'll bet the accuracy of your predictions relating to support level since mid-2008 were equivalent to a coin toss.

Time to realize that we cannot predict anything with any level of accuracy in our current economic situation.


]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 12:43:42 -0500
You may be right with your opinion, but your rationale is flawed. It's been flawed for some time now. Time to rethink.

Our current economic situation is so different than anything seen in the last 40 years, that technical analysis is not a viable tool. Technical analysis relies on interpreting current market trends in light of how past trends occurred and how they were reacted to. In other words, technical analysis interprets today in relation to history.

Since today's economy is one of only 2 or 3 similar situations going back to the Great Depression, all the past trends and market reactions you refer to and rely on are irrelevant.

There's too many unknowns in our economy to rely on things like support level. I'll bet the accuracy of your predictions relating to support level since mid-2008 were equivalent to a coin toss.

Time to realize that we cannot predict anything with any level of accuracy in our current economic situation.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105963-cramer-s-stop-trading-at-t-a-market-stalwart-11-12-08?source=feed#comment-306089 306089 Fri, 14 Nov 2008 11:21:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87040-apple-investors-need-to-get-a-grip?source=feed#comment-214306 214306
Thanks for your insights.

You are one very smart dude.

Thanks again.

David Forjan]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 10:30:03 -0400
Thanks for your insights.

You are one very smart dude.

Thanks again.

David Forjan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74030-apples-dramatic-risks-and-ambitions?source=feed#comment-156464 156464 Fri, 25 Apr 2008 09:28:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/55112-why-i-m-all-about-apple?source=feed#comment-102800 102800
I worked with Macs as programmer, sales, consultant since 1987.

Enough about me, though.

You hit the nail on the head in your article, "An Apple Holiday. What I have known for years about the Mac and Steve Jobs, is just now becoming mainstream. The upside potential is quite huge. Apple has 5-6% market share, with 94% computer owners as potential new customers. And the tipping point I've been expecting may have started last quarter, FY4Q07. Especially judging from your experiences and observations.

In 2002 or -03, Steve Jobs told everyone he was going to create the digital hub lifestyle. And here it is. iPhone, iPod, Mac, Apple TV, iLife, all connected seamlessly, synching, updating automatically.

And even though he told the world that he was going to do it, no one else has. And he delivered it as a wonderful user experience. I could go on and on, but you already have. You hit all the nails on the head.

When I started out investing in Apple, it was as a retirement fund. It still is. But now it is also a source of income, in addition to my retirement fund.

Hopefully your readers will learn from you and secure their own retirement, and short term income, from sizable investment in Apple.

Good luck to you John and all your readers.

David Forjan]]> Thu, 22 Nov 2007 14:54:15 -0500
I worked with Macs as programmer, sales, consultant since 1987.

Enough about me, though.

You hit the nail on the head in your article, "An Apple Holiday. What I have known for years about the Mac and Steve Jobs, is just now becoming mainstream. The upside potential is quite huge. Apple has 5-6% market share, with 94% computer owners as potential new customers. And the tipping point I've been expecting may have started last quarter, FY4Q07. Especially judging from your experiences and observations.

In 2002 or -03, Steve Jobs told everyone he was going to create the digital hub lifestyle. And here it is. iPhone, iPod, Mac, Apple TV, iLife, all connected seamlessly, synching, updating automatically.

And even though he told the world that he was going to do it, no one else has. And he delivered it as a wonderful user experience. I could go on and on, but you already have. You hit all the nails on the head.

When I started out investing in Apple, it was as a retirement fund. It still is. But now it is also a source of income, in addition to my retirement fund.

Hopefully your readers will learn from you and secure their own retirement, and short term income, from sizable investment in Apple.

Good luck to you John and all your readers.

David Forjan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/49352-apple-market-is-missing-true-iphone-earnings-potential?source=feed#comment-98382 98382 The iPhone will continue to surprise analysts. That's because it's a smartphone in two ways, not just the one way that we're all calling it. It's a smartphone as in the category of phones called smartphones.
But it's also a smartphone because the software/interface that controls it is "smart". Meaning the software interface is an intelligent one. The software is smart because it gives you only the options/buttons that are in the context of what you are currently doing with the phone. The user isn't confused and overwhelmed with options/buttons that are not necessary. Only the options/buttons that are pertinent to the function you are currently doing.
So the iPhone is a smartphone in two ways. And as the user base grows, and more people see how smart a phone can really be, the potential for new buyers of the iPhone increases exponentially, at least for the foreseeable future.
Thanks Eric for the forum you create for exchange of ideas, information and opinions about Apple, Inc.
David Forjan
]]> Thu, 11 Oct 2007 12:12:59 -0400 The iPhone will continue to surprise analysts. That's because it's a smartphone in two ways, not just the one way that we're all calling it. It's a smartphone as in the category of phones called smartphones.
But it's also a smartphone because the software/interface that controls it is "smart". Meaning the software interface is an intelligent one. The software is smart because it gives you only the options/buttons that are in the context of what you are currently doing with the phone. The user isn't confused and overwhelmed with options/buttons that are not necessary. Only the options/buttons that are pertinent to the function you are currently doing.
So the iPhone is a smartphone in two ways. And as the user base grows, and more people see how smart a phone can really be, the potential for new buyers of the iPhone increases exponentially, at least for the foreseeable future.
Thanks Eric for the forum you create for exchange of ideas, information and opinions about Apple, Inc.
David Forjan
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