peter02l

Apples to Apples: Will History Repeat Itself as Android Gains on the iPhone?

I don't see how any of your arguments and analogies hold.

Your account of the rise of MSDOS is a bit off. Apple did not have anything like a virtual monopoly. They never had a 90% market share, not even 50%.

Why should we substitute MSDOS with Andriod? Why not with Windows Mobile, or even better, with Symbian? Both are available on smartphones from multiple manufacturers, and both are losing market share. Furthermore, Symbian is now open source and free just like Android. So availability on phones from many manufacturers is not necessarily a recipe for success. Not to mention that both of these existed way before the iPhone. In fact, the only smartphone manufacturer that has been able to hold it's market share even after the release of the iPhone is Research in Motion, which like Apple makes the hardware and the software. So this business model in smartphones seems to be superior.

As for the rubbish camera! You probably have not used the iPhone. It's camera produces superior quality pictures to many smartphone cameras with higher megapixel specs.

If there were a company that is a marketing company first and a technology company second, I don't know how Microsoft slipped your mind. The amount of press they buy, the pre-announcements of upcoming technologies, and the money they spend is notorious. Apple's marketing budget for a company it's size is not anything to brag about. If you mean they know how to successfully spend that money, I agree you are right. But Apple is a technology company first. Their software, hardware, and industrial design are arguably ahead of competitors in using technology to provide solutions that work better and are enjoyable to use.

The iPhone, just as with Andriod based phones is available from multiple carriers in many countries. And those who have not signed any distribution contracts are very eager to do so. So there is no barrier there.

It is amusing that you finally say:

"In terms of range of products they have left every other platform behind. However the business model employed here is easily copied."

This business model is one that ties the software, ecosystem and the hardware to the same company. The only way Google can copy this is to make their own smartphone. I am sure you have heard the rumors, but I don't think there is a chance of that happening.

As for developing for several devices simultaneously, it is not as easy as you think. It's very expensive and code maintenance is a challenge. If it were easy, developers would not have abandoned the Macintosh in the 90s. Most developers find it more cost effective to limit their efforts to the dominant platform. That is the relevant lesson from the MSDOS days.

PALM: Ready to Break Out?

You seem to forget when iPhone initially came out there were no products quite like it. Pre on the other hand was one-upped in a week.


On Jul 02 03:43 PM Techno-Iconoclast wrote:

> Wow there's a lot of revisionist history going on here with the iFanatics.
> Do none of you remember when the iPhone launched? Did it have 3G?
> No. Did it have MMS or tethering? No. Did it have an App Store
> at all or 3rd party applications? No. Did it have initial QC and
> supply problems? Yes. Does the latest model still have QC problems?
> Yes, just google for "overheating 3gs".
>
> Does Palm still have a long way to go? Sure they do. Will they
> be plagued by the same problems as in the past? Probably not, because
> two of the guys that did the real work to turn Apple around are now
> at the helm at Palm. These guys know how to deliver products and
> how to run an organization that designs and builds groundbreaking
> products.
>
> Is Palm going to 'break out'? They have a decent chance if they
> can capitalize on this momentum over the next two years just like
> Apple did over the last 3 years. The smartphone market is only growing.
> To say that Palm and RIMM aren't going to be stealing overall share
> from Motorola, Nokia and Sony/Ericsson is just naive. The big three
> in smartphones will most likely be Apple, Palm and RIMM in two years
> unless someone drops the ball.