Gregory Orr's Comments

Why I Would Not Bet on iPhone over Android

Thu, 17 Dec 2009 13:24:29 -0500

God, anything but Windows Mobile. I had bought a new Dash phone which ran WM, and hated it so much that I traded it for a used Blackberry, with no regrets. What I like about Google is that if there's a problem, they fix it, not me. I like that Google is likely to be upgrading the OS and fixing problems without me ever knowing it.

Consumer-Driven Deflation? Not Even Close

Sat, 05 Dec 2009 13:22:28 -0500

Good point about the banks holding back lending as a factor... Think it's a crime thast these assholes get to rebuild their net interest margins, and therefore profits, at the expense of anyone, namely pension holders, who expect to live on the future purchasing power of the dollar. Have done very well with TBT in the past, but am a little wary of a flight-to-quality(silly, but real) move into treasuries in the event of another equity correction. Also wish I could find better info about the expansion of credit through FED action, vs the destruction of credit through bankruptcy, foreclosure, and forced liquidation of dollar assets. Any suggestions?

On Dec 03 10:49 AM RdaggettPA wrote:

> So the upshot of all of this is that the Fed is printing money like
> crazy but we do not have (or at least see the effects of) inflation.
> I believe that there is a grain of truth in the argument that credit
> acts like money and actually multiplies the increase in money.

>
> I believe that the dam in the inflation river is the banks. They
> are not lending and thus keeping the flood of Fed dollars from reaching
> the public. I further believe that this is probably sound policy
> for the banks to follow for the following reasons. 1. there is little
> cost to not lending since interest rates are so low. 2. The past
> lending excesses resulted saturating the market for credit worthy
> borrowers. 3. The current economic uncertainty makes lending to marginal
> borrowers risky at best. 4. Any long term loans made at current low
> rates will be problematic when rates rise.
>
> The question is how long the banks can continue what is a sound business
> practice for then in light of what will become very large political
> pressure to lend. Do not think that this lever will not be used.
> I believe it is part of the reason that the government is making
> it hard to pay pack TARP funds.
>
> Much more than the usual amount of the current home loans are coming
> from Govt sponsored enterprises and they continue to need more bailout
> monies. Legislators are already pressing the banks for more loans
> if the political pressure works and the dam breaks watch out!

Moody's Doomsday Default Scenario Doesn't Play Out

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:30:59 -0400

Where's the revenue growth? Can we really expect profit growth to be driven by cost-cutting, and layoffs, indefinitely? Seems like we're in a massive "extend and pretend" market, with oodles of juicy euphoria heaped on, but I don't see significant signs of revenue growth in the broad market. As global stimulus effects abate, we're basically left with inflation and default as exit strategies to the debt mountain...

Why Is Deflation Scary?

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 10:05:52 -0400

It's all about debt. Deflation means that assets are worth less than the debt against them, therefore wiping out wealth created through leverage. As DebtNation, much US wealth would be wiped out by deflation, and really inflation and strong economic growth are the only exit doors for a high-debt nation.

Fair Value for the S&P 500? Tell Me Lies, Sweet Little Lies

Wed, 29 Jul 2009 12:39:56 -0400

I just know it's up almost 45% off the march lows, and earnings look fair but revenue growth sucks. Add in future CMBS and assorted credit losses, and I'm happy, sleeping well, in TIPS and cash...

Why I Feel TBT Is About to Become a Goldmine

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 12:43:49 -0500

I wholeheartedly agree. Have been buying puts on TLT for awhile now, and finally feel like the long bond has bottomed out, yield-wise. Think I'm gonna move to TBT. you can print all the money you want, but at the end of the day, somebody has gotta show up and buy the bonds. Japan? China? OPEC? Been looking for an auction to fail. Never occurred to me that it would be a german auction first.

Dollar's Stunning Drop, Ten-Year Treasuries' Huge Rally - What's Going on?

Sun, 21 Dec 2008 14:56:42 -0500

God, I miss Crazy Eddie. Yeah, the long bond at this price is insane. A taxable investment, tied to nothing but the treasury's ability to raise tax dollars from its loyal subjects, in a recession at best, having flushed the last of its ammo shooting cardboard Citi and AIG cutouts off the fence, when, by my calculations, the only way out for the US economy is massive infrastructure spending. Can anyone say, "Two Trillion Dollar Deficit"? The treasury can print all the money it wants, but still somebody has to show up at the auction and buy the bonds. China? Japan? OPEC, with $33 bbl oil? What about federal debt service as a % of GDP? What will happen if the only takers at next year's 200 days of treasury auctions decide that, relative to the yen or the euro, they won't take anything less than a 10% yield?

On Dec 21 02:01 PM Simmons wrote:

> Jim Rogers says that the Treasuries will be the last bubble to deflate.
>
>
> Let`s see.
>
> jimrogers-investments....

Is the Inflation Scare Over Yet?

Sun, 29 Jun 2008 18:34:12 -0400

Thanks for a great article. TLT closed at almost 92 1/2 on friday, my target high, so I'm looking for a rebound in financials this week and TLT to drop back towards 88. Inflation will rule in the end, and the impetus will come from foreign investors continuing to lose confidence in the dollar. The future sentiment will be that they'll much rather hold equities than long bonds, which have almost no rational prospect of gaining value, other than "flight to Quality" bounces when stocks take more write-downs and miss earnings targets.

Housing Market Tracker - Commercial Real Estate Outlook

Sat, 23 Feb 2008 15:46:42 -0500

Interesting that the cap rate on the citicorp plaza deal was 5.8%, with 2007 inflation runnung at 4.1%. Think Apollo was lucky to get out of the property at that level. Also haven't heard alot about Harry Macklowe's renegotiated loan terms on the equity office/Blackstone purchases. Wonder if he's gonna be forced to sell off any manhattan properties any time soon, and what the cap rate will be on such a sale.

7 Natural Resource Stocks Bucking the Bearish Trend

Mon, 11 Feb 2008 11:37:21 -0500

Thanks for a great piece. I keep wondering if the chinese are going to start making direct investments into the south african mining operations, perhaps even building their own power plant to supply the mines. Have you heard anything about this? Would certainly be an excellent place for the chinese to invest their dollars.

6 Reasons to Short Housing Stocks

Fri, 01 Feb 2008 16:01:57 -0500

another caveat about drops in inventory is that they should specify "finished homes". Sometimes approved projects that have not yet broken ground, and are then cancelled, are includud in the "drop in inventory" numbers.

Why is Ryland’s Management Dumping Shares?

Wed, 23 Jan 2008 22:30:13 -0500

Thanks for the article, Reggie. Are you planning an update on Ryland with the earnings report today?

The Problem With Capital One Financial

Mon, 21 Jan 2008 23:25:41 -0500

thanks, Chad. Thought the article was well written, and confirms my own suspicions.

The Problem With Capital One Financial

Mon, 21 Jan 2008 23:22:30 -0500

I'm also looking to short COF, and I'm pissed that I didn't do it friday morning when it was up 66 cents, before turning around and ending down 1.40. I agree that the FHLB will scrutinize any collateralized capital requests, and it may come down to a board member having a personal contact inside. I predicted the collapse of Countrywide and MBIA, and I can't see any way for COF to emerge from this dark alley. Hell, they even offered ME a credit card last week! I wouldn't be surprised if COF's stock chart falls off a cliff in the next 60 days.