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  • The Secret Of Warren Buffett's Alpha [View article]
    I found a book a long time ago talking about why insurance stocks could outpace the general market given tax advantages and their float of insurance policy money. Yes that is some of Buffet's source of leverage and of course leverage is essential in times of inflation. Pretty much everyone who joins the Forbes 400 and 500 in real estate gets there because of the coupling of leverage and inflation . Warren Buffet could have done what Sam Zell did on steroids with insurance float and a number of insurance companies do put their investment float into real estate. Insurance companies that make mistakes with their float can pay dearly for those mistakes. Buffet seeks companies with monopolistic power whether he owns them as whole entities or in shares of publicly traded stocks. Making less mistakes with capital and avoiding companies with high present and future re-capitalization needs he gets more than a leg up on his competition. If you visit most Dairy Queen restaurants, unlike McDonalds where everything is new, the equipment and interiors tend to date back 20 years or more with very few new capital investments. Buffet also reduces the universe of stocks that are viable for holding to a hand full of stocks. When he says he missed the walmart opportunity in the beginning he means he definately considered ownership early in the major growth phase but all things being limited he chose to invest what always is limited capital in to something that seemed better. His investments in walmart came much later and a at time where the dynamics of the company were much more mature and much more predictable but only at that point a whole new international force in progress. Walmart is now still in that international push phase which promises a much larger company in the span of say 20 years. Imagine a trillion plus market cap company with over 12000 stores worldwide....hard to imagine. Then again it is hard to imagine the number of McDonalds outlets worldwise, subways worldwide and yum brand stores world wide. It is not impossible and more than propable. Buffet pretty much waited until one of the original heirs of Sam Walton died in a plane crash depressing the share value. Not sure that had everything to do with the new interest but there was a new potential large block of ownership that might materialize on markets at that point. Those are interesting percentile charts showing where Warren Buffet fits in. It is not an entirely new possition though. The Rothschilds occupied that zone in their market hayday so did JP Morgan. The interesting thing about the markets today is that companies have recently been exposed to some of the lowest interest rate cost leverage in memory. That leverage with possible inflation is going to drive this market to unseen levels almost regardless of stock quality or value. The ultra low interest rates may not be low considering possible deflation but there is strong evidence that deflation will not be allowed and inflation will be welcome. This time inflation will be different because computers can adjust for it second by second thoughout the entire economy and companies flush with really low cost debt for leverage will find their financial power increasing once inflation retires any cost to be paid for borrowing. A huge transfer of wealth from this pheneomenon has already started. Home prices are likely to surge because of 2-3 percent mortage rates. Evidence in some markets is already showing up. Oh by the way warren buffet has one more form of leverage which is tax planning leverage. It traditionally worked for real estate investors because government tended to exempt real estate loan interest from taxes ....game you too can win.
    Jan 7 05:55 AM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Buffett Premium? [View article]
    I discovered something interesting about Warren Buffet few people consider. I was looking at an old investment book on the shelf here called something like "How to Invest in Stocks to Make Money " dated 1988 . I looked in the index to see the stocks and names of investors mentioned in the book and realized there was no mention of Berkshire Hathaway , No mention of Warren Buffet , No mention of Bill Gates either for that matter. Remember Wang Computers? It was a hot stock back then and is in the book. So I started thinking about seeing when Warren Buffet started appearing in investment guides as an example of this that or the other thing. It sure was not in this book from 1988. I looked quickly to see if KO was mentioned in the book and it appears to be non existing too in the index. I save old investment guild publications for this purpose actually. I did find a listing for Microsoft at an early date in its history after going public when it was between a dollar going to 15 dollars a share before many splits probably. That was back when it was a growth stock with a PE listed at 32 I think I recall. That was found in an old issue of world investing magazine. So now I am curious just how much or little financial reporting was done on Berkshire Hathaway or Warren Buffet in it's / his earlier years. Buffet really exploded on the investment bookshelves after his success was certain and not before some point.
    Aug 9 01:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Is The Magic Waning? [View article]
    You can't go by the charts with intel. They are doubling the size of a huge new 3 billion dollar facility in Oregon. They are not making this investment just to lose money but because they know they have some pretty amazing prospects on the way. Expect in the future to a lot of interactive robots in your future including your self driving cars, taxis, cooks, house keepers, gardners all with intel inside. All computers over 5 years old are already obsolete and guess what? they tend to break at about 5 years so wait and see a huge new buying cycle especially after the recession totally subsides. Intel is building facilities all over the world some of which lower their cost and improve efficiency. They are not moving in the direction of having factories like these mothballed as obsolete facilities. The thing most interesting is the expansion of the market with another 4 billion people or more in Asia and there you are talking about x number of chips per person round the world. Oh and with all the Obama drone activity you can expect a lot more drones and other robotic soldures being manufactured for national defence in a variety of countries. There is going to be a prolfieration of micro electronics like few people have ever imagined. You see the drones even taking over for other weapons now wait till there are more drones than servicemen in the army, navy and airforce. Not they won't all fly but they will come packaged on racks the way they did in star wars ready to deploy instead of men and women on the front lines.
    Oct 29 10:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: Wait For A Pullback [View article]
    Right now it seems most of the world's markets have no discount prices at all. in the latest edition of the economist only three world markets seem to have any discount to the US dollar (including the US) those include Greece, Chile, and Thailand with the protests and threats of civil war in the streets. Other markets discounted are Saudi Arabia with a possible full blown conflict with Iran pending playing itself out in the streets from Russia to Lebanon and Iraq as the epicenter. Interest rates seem to be rising even if inflation is nil. The connection between interest rates and inflation is not always predictable. Sometimes they coincide and sometimes not. Coke may wake up some day with the Chinese government attempting to nationalize their Chinese plants. Lawyers are busy trying to link artificial sweeteners in diet sodas with every conceivable bad health outcome and Warren Buffet is entering the 'actuarial' period of his life span as life insurance companies view it. I could never imagine having a president like the one we have now who is propping up a compete utter disaster like Obama care and causing infinite chaos around the world supporting every gorilla movement there is especially in the middle east. Today I find an article in Barrons that says foreign investment in the US has come to a stand still. That maybe because the dollar is over valued. Foreign money props up the US stock markets . The Barrons commentator said something like it has become an almost "dangerous" trend or something like that because US stock prices are an international phenomenon. An investment in coke or intel or Ibm is an investment in multinational markets not just the US. Then there is that stock market chart or just the one of the broad market indexes. It is rare by some percentage probability that the market stays on the same trend line it is on those charts 2 years in a row going back 150 years or more. It does happen but dips and pull backs are more the norm than the unusual happenstance. Pull backs I would say looking at long term charts are more predictable than sprinting bull markets year after year after year even if the ongoing trend is sky high. I need to look at the actual probability of market advances 2,and 3 years in a row on a table to see what the real frequency is before deciding on that as a factor to worry about now. I rather predicted the dollar would go higher and remain the international currency back when that idea became unpopular. It should stay relatively high or business around the world suffers. I doubt all commodities have hit bottom though maybe a few have. a pull back looks inevitable maybe even ugly considering my screening for cheap stocks has almost nothing available. Expensive stocks with low dividends verses higher interest rates on the horizon maybe trouble and deeper trouble than expected and then again bull markets can over shoot reality. If the dollar is increasing in world wide value beware cash is not really necessarily trash...it says it may be a big deflationary trend when you see gold prices fall the way they have against the dollar Believe it or not Gold world wide may have a bigger market than the US dollar. So what about coke? maybe you will be able to buy it between $26 a share and
    $35 if banks give depositors 2-4 % interest yields on their money for a year. On the other hand companies like coke protetected them selves selling bond that yield very low interest rate while interest rates were low. buying back stock that way would make a lot of sense if interest rates rise fast and hard. I am waiting for Nestle to make an offer for coke eventually just because those kinds of things do happen . Just look at what happened to Heinz and to Wrigley etc............
    Jan 6 03:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Transport Or Export? [View article]
    This public policy attitude is completely stupid. You let the markets decide. The fact that someone, anyone is willing to invest significant private capital to an expensive long distance pipeline building program is a tiny little clue that the free market is trying to work out the problem without any need for government interference. Supposing the investors in this pipeline are completely wrong well then they lose their money and we call the whole thing a great folly. It may turn out to be just that a giant folly but right now with the money trying to get out of a lot of pockets and running to get this pipeline built it looks to be amazingly better bet than what the government did with subsidies and tax breaks for wind energy or solyndra and similar failing solar power companies. The whole idea that the government has any purpose at all being involved tells you that there maybe something disingenuous in their complaints and concerns. It is not their money. Yes I do have a problem with the use of eminent domain to get access for the pipeline . I believe that should be negotiated between all concerned. If we go back to the Alaska Pipeline we find that it made low cost gasoline and diesel to the west coast for a lot of years.
    Feb 24 03:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway's Headline Looks Great But Operating Earnings Down [View article]
    Imagine Berkshire Hathaway as a take over target . At present it might be worth as much as 260 billion dollars. Kind of expensive to make an offer for all the shares until you realize the parts of the company might be worth over 300 billion dollars sold off in individual pieces. I would even advise a company like Apple computer to make such an offer if its market cap grew to be a trillion plus dollar company. The logic is exactly the same as what happened when AOL enticed Time Warner to buy it out except that BRK.A /B would be worth more than the company buying it , I expect Apple computers will come out with the I-care to compete with the Android self driving car. Still all apples businesses are cyclical. Berkshire Hathaway is like buying the land and never selling it realizing it will produce rental income forever more. It would take more than a few giant banks to pull that off. It would actually be an excellent investment for a very large sovereign wealth fund compared to US Treasuries except that keeping good management there is worth more than a break up and sale of the bits and pieces. I rather suspect a break up of the company during my life time. There are few businesses that have survived either anti trust or old age as giant conglomerates.
    Nov 12 03:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clouds Over Omaha - Time To Sell Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    Sounds like bad advise and poor analysis. What concerns me is that crowd in the photo filling the sports arena in Omaha. Too many people depending on a sure thing. Go back 30-40 years when Buffet/ Berkshire Hathaway was a mostly unknown investment prospect or extremely "contrarian" When Buffet purchased coke shares in the first place it was not the most popular thing on the market.
    May 6 06:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Follow Buffett Into Exxon [View article]
    It Makes sense for Burlington Northern Santa Fe to make good friends with their potential customers/ existing customers as sort of a rebate for Berkshire Hathaway and a discount to Exxon possibly. Makes sense for a major shipping company to own part of the business that it will transport. Typical of the way Japanese trading companies take financial interests in their customers businesses.
    Nov 15 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aereo And The Death Of Broadcast TV [View article]
    I looked more carefully at the mater after reading the hype that a two trillion dollar broadcasting and cable industry was going to go down the drain because of new technology platforms like Aereo and their parent company and reached the conclusion that broadcast companies and cable companies have lots of options regardless of what the courts or congress does to enable Aereo and its present business model. If you broadcast original content and or sell it and want it exclusively on cable you can simply stop broadcasting or broadcast it in a way that Aereo has no right to ENCRYPTED with a payed pass key for users. Say you are CBS and don't want your content to be redistributed by Aereo or Netflix or even xfinity well then just stop broadcasting it and put it directly on the internet instead in HD! Then your intellectual property is protected. Those broadcasting towers cost money to keep up and running so shut em down if the pirates get a legal pass to rip you off, But that is not necessary by having a company make little anteneas for you that have a subscription fee encryption device attached to them and yes you can actually give them away and to protect them you copyright the encryption vocabulary used. I can link that to your smart phone or to your tv or smart tv and package it so lots of broadcasters are free to join a private consortium the pirates can't legally take the encryption from . Oh and you can eventually just shut down those pesky broadcasting towers too or reuse them to make sure that all aereo sites end up rebroadcasting is the Laurence welk show. Actually I don't see the game changer of Aereo because there are strong laws that protect intellectual property and Aereo has no monopoly on internet access television. CBS, ABC, NBC etc can just do this go to you tube or a similar site now and put their shows up there instead of on the air and earn adsense that might really pay from Google. Aereo is just killing the broadcasting towers that are a blight on the landscape anyway not the cable companies. You are not going to get broadband internet access from Aereo..Although that could be a reuse of the tall broadcasting towers maybe?
    May 30 07:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Thoughts On The Berkshire/3G - Heinz Deal [View article]
    It looks more like a finacial banking deal for Berkshire Hathaway considering it's mix of perfered and common shares with what are variable coupons essentially. I would not be sure which party, Berkshire or the Brazilian counterpart would end up the long term sole owner of Heinz. It looks like Berkshire is taking less risk and both firms are betting on converting debt to higher leverage once interest rates gear up and inflation does too. Heinz is big enough to split into a number of different companies. It is a great vechicle for financing debt because it actually is a growing company still.
    Feb 17 12:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Do With Intel's Stock [View article]
    Intel has the problem of being a capital intensive enterprise. When you see how many new multi-billion dollar plants they are building beware it is an expense considerably more than the company was worth being invested going back not too many years. Few companies on earth can afford to this. In Oregon that built one plant that will cost 4-8 billion dollars and then embarked on doubling the size. Those kinds of expenses and not just in oregon but world wide would weigh down any company even as large as Intel is and it does not make the company a great long term investment in the way something like an auto parts distributor is because they have no big necessary capital expenditures and they can buy their competitors to expand and they have no great future capital expenditures. So why hold intel? In the history of the world there has never been growth like Intel , Microsoft, Cisco, (AOL before it sold to time warner) You can compare the south seas bubble to these charts and the percentage gains now are closer to geometric ptrogressions in the main up phases than even the market build up before the 1930s crash. This compuoter driven economic reality we have is really unprecedented. When the ancient Romans conquored their competitors and took spoils there was no geometric progression and even the growth of Philip Moris before it became Altria and other spin offs does not look like intel's original upside charted geometric progression. Then they had tiny capital investment to begin with maybe with the share price under a dollar per share. Now if we end up with self driving automobiles and self controlled robotic machines of all sorts there are going to be more than just two computers in each car. Every car will become a cell phone tower to relate to each other car on the road with or with out a human driver and computers will monotor the road conditions ahead of all traffic and computer chips are going to be more compon place than today. Intel has way too much competition but that does not mean that we won't need their output. Computers don't last more than 5 years on average so an other buying cyucle will come. I don't know how long cell phones last before needing to be replaced. Demand is worldwide and it is going to grow. We are now in an era where it is like the last days when just a few people in rural areas did not have land line telephones. My assessment is that Intel's capital investment could pay off and it could even result in a new geometric progression of growth just more unlikely than the first one and the concern is that in 20 years a single chip with have super computer capacity and a longer life span than chips to day and that the cost will fall to pennies for the very best from the high margin prices intel gets today. Do you have a super computer in your smart phone now? No so chances are after they come out most people on earth will pay an excessively high profit margin to get one of the new phones with the chips in it. The last time my computer broke down it was just about five yeasr old like the one that died before it. So don't count on HP going out of buisiness either.
    Jan 17 05:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Secret Of Warren Buffett's Performance [View article]
    Yes if the efficent market hypothesis is correct the way to beat Warren Buffet by being Warren Buffet would be to create a Warren Buffet Index? You can often purchase shares Buffet owns at lower prices tha Buffet pays realizing that what he does pick is his investment screen and to suplement that you can buy Berkshire Shares when they are at low end of the price range and put them in the index as a key component. What you won't likely get is the upper level statistical outliers in your portfolio which are smaller cap stocks than Buffet is generally interested in in new unproven industries. You won't have apple in your portfolio from five to ten years ago and you won't have google in your portfolio or a company that does all new genetic drug testing/ genome screening which might or might not prove to be a crucial part of the medical health care system as time goes on. You could have added IBM long before Buffet added it. If you were to have a personal or private index fund or Buffet ETF my guess is that it would be best to have something like 30 percent berkshire shares purchased at the lower range of trading, 50 percent buffet shares either with a buffet premium paid because he picked them first or after they correct in price once the correction comes and then add smaller cap stocks that buffet won't buy that come close to having the buffet screening characteristics that he won't be competing with you to buy. You can find those stocks by those smaller companies with increasing revenues but investor disapointment because higher revenues don't translate to higher earnings per share. Occasionally you find the market selling Amgen type stocks when they are younger and having difficulty keeping up with demand because they have insufficent factory space and systems to churn out the demand the market wants. Or you can find stocks like philips petroleum just spun out of a company break up where no one seems to know how to price it at a 30 percent discount. That maybe where ABT is now having spun out of Abott Labs? If not that there are companies just waiting for larger companies to buy them up. It was hard to guess that BUD was a buy out target. Not so hard to imagine the Kraft spin outs being buy out bait. There are companies waiting for Philip Morris International to buy them out at higher prices and you can kind of guess that because Philip Morris might be dependent on buying from them. CRDN was an obvious sweet morcel for a buyout . MMM a great suiter and parent company now but it could have also been Honeywell. MMM is better because it keeps CRDN as a basic materials provider in a a sense. MMM may not be at a price Buffet would buy it at at the moment. for the 20 percent look for companies that the giants would like to add to their industrial ownership portfolios and look for companies that might look to have owners interested in selling out eventually.
    Jan 15 11:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'd Avoid Buying Berkshire Hathaway Now [View article]
    Berrkshire Hathaway is a mature company. Apparently Warren Buffet has his own private portfolios outside of Berkshire Hathaway as he does not tend to buy his own shares and he does not have much of a record of building castles or places with real moats like Larry Elison types do. When he gets his money back from investments outside of his Berkshire Hathaway holdings he is not usually buying shares on a personal basis. Clearly he as the right to some diversifaction too. Apparently he did buy back some shares in the last market dip but in that case it was I think Berkshire Hathaway buying back it's own shares or just a few of them . Maybe it was an over hang of sellers getting rid of the B shares since so many got issued with the purchase of Burlington Northern? One can see from this that maybe the company might be better off spit up into sections with smaller capital pools to invest from and some limited independence. Management after Buffet will certainly consider all options as time goes by. These is also evidence that Warren has creates some investment pools that are separate. Geico , Mid America, and the Reinsurnance units all have semi independent investment portfolios and more recently the people he has been considering for future management possitions maybe running his own separate portfolio or parts of the Berkshire Empire on what internally might look like a separate investment portfolio for each. If you want to hire someone who has a record of investing that is one thing but then to bring them on , you don't want to give them independence but try them out first. Berkshire Hathaway is not going to collapse and disaapear anytime in the near future. When you think about how big Standard Oil would have been had it not been broken up you can just put together all the separate pieces most of which have grown ever since the break up and you find the whole is larger than at the time of the break up. That appears to be true when you start putting Ma Bell back together too. You just add Verizon and ATT and thats much larger than large cap right there without adding the other parts . That maybe a cause ot analyze companies that broke up into smaller units because maybe the whole of Berkshire Hathaway is instantly worth a lot more than the whole that way although some components of the company broken off would have a much faster growth rate than say the Utilities parts including the railroad. That depends on whether the railroad business does become a growth area. When The former denver owner of BNSF sold out he figured that the company had totally matured and went into the entertainment business among others instead. That left it open to a Buffet aquisition and who would have expected that He wanted the whole thing. The reason is it may transform into a growth company with low cost co generation nantural gas powering it on the rails instead of diesel and trucking going from being interstate to local and rail with trucks also becoiming hybrid electric gas generated power vechicles. There is also an issue of Chinese exportation of coal and other resources that mean rails like those that hit pacific ports don't have to send as many empty train cars back to the coast after they deliver the chinese goods to the heartland and no wider panama canal is going to change those facts although there is the issue of the erie canal and if it is for sale cheap again.
    Mar 11 08:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Regulators are taking the fizz out of a report from a consumer group finding that Coca-Cola (KO -0.7%) and Pepsi (PEP -0.8%) contain a chemical that causes cancer in animals when given in large doses. The FDA disputes the conclusion that the sodas pose a health risk.  [View news story]
    Congress should take a hard look at the asbestos trust created to aid victims because it appears that there are far fewer victims than estimated and the funds left should be returned to the shareholders of the companies the attornies bankrupted. There is a chemical in Alcohol that will kill a mouse if put a mouse in a bottle of vodca or rum. Now a days sugar alone is being considered as a dangerous addictive drug by the same idiots who keep pumping this stuff out in the media. Now that the miso asbestos commericals are coming on the air every moment of every day saying that asbestos lung cancer is essentially the same thing as lung cancer we know that attorneys are just crooks trying to get their share of the miso funds. The air is dangerous , the water is dangerous and an asteroid with coke and pepsi advertised on it is heading toward earth. Yeah right just like peak oil which turned out to be a total crock.
    Mar 7 01:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett: Out Of Proportion To Reality? [View article]
    The reason why Buffet brings up gold in his analysis is because gold is competing with stocks for capital. He does not bring up the illequitity of gold in terms of the spread between ask and buy even on the spot market. There certainly is a cult of buffet and now a cult of Donald Trump and Oprah too if that makes any sense at all. Maybe we need a Warren Buffet Financial Channel on cable with Buffet 24/7 broadcasting from Omaha., the navel of the earth studios, Ever owned gold when the price crashes? It does not look so good then and gold mines stop mining at some point because they lose money doing it. There is a lot of gold out there more than anyone needs especially as the price is strastospheric. There are lots of substitutes like copper as a conductor. gold may be better and non corrosive but the trade off for copper is way worthwhile. Now if you wanted to pave the path to your home with gold bricks there are also great alternatives like concrete blocks or flag stone and those alternative cost so much less there is no demand for gold bricks not even in hollywood where when they need gold bricks they spray paint strofoam. There was a time when Platinum cost less than gold like 1/10 less than gold and then came the california requirment for catalytic converters in cars. One of those ruined my car at the time, That changed the whole market dynamic for platinum until soon when the corning ceramic catalytic converter comes out and then industrial uses for platinum may not be the greatest. The dream of gold bugs is for gold to be re-monitized because there can't be enough just for the US Federal Government to do business alone let alone the rest of the world. If governments had to buy gold to do that the price could skyrocket not to 5000 dollars an once but 40,000 dollars an once before governments just started confiscating the stuff FDR style. Gold could become so expensive that just looking at it would be worth $1. People could go to gold parlors and pay to look at gold....like the serentity gold chamber in Los Angeles , a solid gold think tank , that costs $400 an hour to mediate in side. Thankfully it is shaped like an egyptian pyramid so there is also free pyramid power included in the price. Right now a lot of gold nuts would pay as much as people pay to go up in space with the Russians to the space station just to get a look inside fort Knox. That would be a great way for the US government to make money honestly with $50,000 tours of Fort Knox. Buffet is telling people or at least hinting unlike george soros, that gold is in a super bubble at the moment. An indian temple was recently discovered to have billions of dollars worth of gold oranments burried in vaults there. If India put that gold on the market or monitized it would would affect mining companies and world gold prices. There is some trip line price where most of the nible holders of gold are prepared to sell in advance which means the bubble will pop instantly. You are not going to see anything like that with PG or IBM or Coke or Burlington Northern. Book value at Berkshire Hathaway is an indicator that only applies to berkshire hathway and is not quoted by valueline or s&p in the same way. It is not a subjective measurement but probably is an estimation like a lot of other things in life. There is always the chance that buffet could be an even bigger version of Bernie Madoff but not likely. The US congress certainly is savvy financially in a Bernie Madoff way and people still vote for them. The problem with gold is that it has to revert to the mean like everything else does and it does not reproduce or have growth like better companies do. It sits there and looks pretty. Maybe it even looks devine to a lot of people. What gold really does as it reverts to the mean over time is maintain a realtively constant value . This could really change if there were some new industrial use. It is possible in the future that a lot of gold might be needed for solar collectors that will make a moon base or mars base functional and then all that gold would be exported from the planet and people would be screaming that the aliens were getting away with our gold. Aliens may actually come to earth and steal all the gold and then whats left in the ground will be worht billions per once.
    .
    Feb 27 08:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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