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Swood@hvc.rr.com

Swood@hvc.rr.com
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  • Annaly Capital: A Funny Thing Happened After Tapering [View article]
    usr, your's is the only reasoned comment so far. Best to think of NLY as the "little engine that will"....pay at least 9-10% payout with the possibility of considerable price appreciation. In a growing likelihood of deflation we might be entering territory not seen for some time. Always keep one solid rule in mind: market behavior tends to reward the few and punish the many.
    Jan 21 09:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Has Bottomed: Multiple Reasons To Run For The Hills [View article]
    I hear Peterad, and it's possible Brad's piece does have a large dose of self-promo, but so what....more power to him. However, his take on mReits leaves out possibly the most important driver of share appreciation. I have owned NLY for years and have noticed stock action as it has gone in and out of fashion as a trade vehicle. My conclusion: as a trade, or speculation as Brad names it, one can find a lot better opportunities running a Metastock screen based on whatever trade edge you feel comfortable with. NLY at its present price is a an opportunity to accumulate a steady stream of income and a stock that will appreciate over the next 18 months to near $20. Shocked by my optimism? Shouldn't be. In point of fact almost all macro-economic data have begun to point to a decade of extremely slow growth in the U.S. (Think Japan in the '90's) and beneath the stretched PEs of most indexes companies are freezing hiring and increasing on-demand manufacturing. I'm not in love with any stock but, for me, Annaly is the Little Engine That Could, and in this overpriced, over-hyped market that's good enough for me.
    Jan 16 08:08 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: It's A Matter Of What, Where And Why [View article]
    Meant to add I am a long time AAPL shareholder. Happy New Year to everybody on this great site.
    Dec 29 12:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: It's A Matter Of What, Where And Why [View article]
    Prophetic piece, well written and unarguable. Good work. I have it on more than reliable sources (excuse the grammar) that , and this is a quote, "...barring an Icahn hijack..." AAPL's Board is in the process of lining up the votes for a 6 for 1 split. While most investors and traders have been, wrongly and rightly, focused on Apple's increasing sales and superior product line (the word iconic is probably not hyperbole) the feedback the Board has been getting from large mutual funds is that their mom and pop retail investors who would like to own AAPL find the share price prohibitive. Yes, this is behavioral econ 101, but it would be a smart move to follow in the steps of a XOM or JNJ and issue a stock split as part of the hefty dividend. The recent Board advisement for shareholders to reject the Icahn proposal doesn't mean the Board will get it's way, but it makes sense in like of the rumor issuing from Silicon Valley.
    Dec 29 12:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly and American Capital lead mREIT decline after Sell rating [View news story]
    You are seeing correctly, seeing through the current tax management selling which may not be over until the end of the month. I find it particularly laughable when a hedge fund, which by design makes most of its profits on the short side, issues negative commentary on a sector in which they profited hugely by going short while they told their clients to "buy...buy...buy" in 2007-8. Many of their execs should be behind bars. Another HF that was notorious for driving down stocks in order to purchase at rock bottom was SAC capital. I am long NLY because I like their move into commercial sector. I am currently under water, but I have no plans to pull the plug on what is a sound investment NOT A TRADE. Insiders are buying with their after tax dollars. Enough said.
    Dec 6 07:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly leads more declines in mREITs [View news story]
    No news, DL, just some early tree trimming (selling) to offset gains in other ends of the portfolio. Value investors buy on fundamentals of the company. Right now the crazy environment established by the Fed is driving the market for stocks like NLY and AGNC. However, they are pivoting in their strategies and lowering their dividends to compensate.
    Dividends will rise as the new business model. These are not stocks for those with ADHD.
    Nov 26 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly leads more declines in mREITs [View news story]
    While I might grab more attention writing all in caps I say I've seen this story of DRASTICALLY (for emphasis, guys!) oversold stocks since I started investing Ben/Warren style back after the Exxon Valdez disaster. I was scared s%#tless when I put in my buy order over the phone (no internet), not helped by the "are you crazy" intonation of the young man taking my order. There is always a reason for panic, it's just hard to see in the moment. I've been scaling into NLY (best of the mortgage REITS, by my reckoning due to its movement towards a beefier commercial portfolio) during the past two weeks as the end of year selling has clearly started early this year. It's rational for those with a large loss in any position to sell out these positions for tax purposes. One need only look at NLY's chart for a couple of seconds to see it has "December sell" written all over it. Another one I'm looking to sink my teeth into is NEM, but the precious metals stocks seem to live in a parallel universe. Hey everybody, have a great Thanksgiving and I have to say this site attracts the most thoughtful, sincere, funny and helpful people of any investment site on the web. Thanks.
    Nov 26 05:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon: A Very Strong Buy Recommendation [View article]
    Barron's has great piece on VZ's CEO...hands on guy who has grounded, aggressive plans for a great company. With the expedited rollout of FIOS and the tie in 4G with Apple Air iPads Verizon is looking like a cheap stock in a market of bloated stocks with minuscule yields. I think the analyst target s of $61-66 are conservative, but hey I don't mind getting paid to wait...and you traders can play the "Barron's Bounce".
    Nov 3 12:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Top Russell 1000 Dogs Reveal 7% To 21% September Upsides [View article]
    Fred - Interesting piece...especially when one considers the sucess of the Dogs of the Dow theory over the decades. Of late I've been interested in the stocks I'm following/owning having the largest short interest accumulating. Often these shorts swarm over a stock's price action (and as traders that's there job) losing sight of the longer term prospects of the company behind the price action they're watching. Take Annaly (NLY) as an example. This is a company I have been following and accumulating for years. Of late I've been fascinated by the direct relation between the growth in short interest (which seems to have peaked) and the number of negative articles on "trader sites" like Yahoo, Alpha, etc. I've seen larger proportions of short interest going back to '08, '09 and 2011 and the result has always proved disastrous for the shorts who hang around too long (greed?) and lose sight of the underlying restructuring/adjusting the company is undergoing. In the case of NLY this is especially interesting at present given the repositioning of the Fed's policy shifts. However, one has only to do some homework and read the presentations by the execs at the company (presented at regular intervals/press releases) to know that they are fully aware of the changes they need to make to keep the wind in their sails. Some folks on this site (who I believe are short NLY and other mReits) were citing the lowering of the company's dividend as a sign of weakness are creating a false impression. I, for one was relieved to see an adjustment of the dividend, as it signaled a conservative and thoughtful response to the company's long term objectives. My long term price target on the company is $21. In the mean time I've been biding my time and, when I have some spare cash, accumulating more shares. Again, thanks for your interesting work.
    Sep 26 09:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Holding High-Yield Dividend Stocks Too Long Could Wreck Your Portfolio [View article]
    Hey, RS - Thanks for your work and your respect for a variety of views. I too have held (and am holding/buying NLY) currently owning over 24K shares, so I am attuned to the different views on the company and differentiate these from opinions about the STOCK PRICE of the company. Your current opinion re. NLY may be right on target for swing traders and, perhaps, even day traders. But I respectfully differ with what I believe I heard as your long term view: stay away from NLY. As an investor who seeks out well run companies without prejudice I firmly believe that Annaly is a screaming buy anywhere south of 12 bucks. The company is positioning itself for long term growth in a volatile interest rate environment, and, you're right, the price over the next 6-8 months or so (as the Fed winds down it's Monopoly money policy) could sink another 10-15%. However, I think folks who pass up buying what they perceive as a risky stock without understanding how the company has made and will continue to make profits are missing an opportunity here. As an old school buy and hold value investor I've always paid attention to "insider action" as the closest thing us Little Guys will ever have to a crystal ball. Execs at NLY can do what they want with their own money, so when they start scooping up shares it doesn't strike me as a "sell signal". Thanks for your thoughtful and provocative piece - KEEP WRITING.
    Sep 21 09:00 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Recharging Its Evaluation [View article]
    Just a note on Tesla's lagging schedule on creating charging stations.
    Tesla's conservative estimate was to have 27 (see above) stations up and running. They only have 19, just over two thirds of they promised. Problem, according to articles on line is the public pressure at local zoning boards against these stations. If this problem can't be resolved on a nationwide basis Tesla will be in real trouble. No cross country trips! One solution might be to team up with Ford, GM and Toyota to spread the economic consequences and have more political clout with the states.
    Aug 25 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Recharging Its Evaluation [View article]
    Meant to add: TSLA appears to be setting up a classic double top with diminishing volume on the second top. Be cautious going long with a double-top as it has proven to be one of the most reliable technical signals in charting history.
    Aug 25 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Recharging Its Evaluation [View article]
    Good point. The TSLA chart backs you up: a classic "double-top" has formed, with decreasing volume on the second leg up. chart is definitely flashing "CAUTION!" Doesn't help stock when Musk himself calls it overvalued at current levels. Ouch.
    Disclosure: Not in this stock.
    Aug 25 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Recharging Its Evaluation [View article]
    Leigh, You're prescient and in agreement with the president of Tesla who called the shares of his own company overvalued. Can't blame him. He'd like to separate his company from the fate of other "rocket stocks" like Taser (look at charts from a decade ago) and Amazon in the late '90s. Disclosure: I am not long or short TSLA, but may take short position in the next week or so when stock dips below 156-58.
    Aug 25 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Recharging Its Evaluation [View article]
    Disclosure: Not short stock, and most certainly not long.
    Okay, since TSLA is a fantasy stock, meaning all of it's "fundamentals" exist in a never, never land that has yet to materialize, we need to talk about it in those terms. In other words, "let's pretend" terms. So, let's pretend that every "1 percenter" in the country bought one of these very expensive automobiles. (I know, that will never happen, but we're playing "let's pretend").
    That's roughly 330 thousand cars. As these things are incredibly expensive to make and the margin a paltry 8-10% we're talking about a profit of roughly (and very generously!) 1.3+ billion dollars. The true believers who have purchased the stock, thereby also purchasing a pass to this fantasy have given the stock a current market value of over $19 billion! It will be fun to watch as this bubble bursts. An optimistic valuation lies somewhere between $55 and $68.
    Aug 25 07:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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