Global Warming Examiner

Is There Value in Silicon Solar PV?

All of the silicon solar companies are growing capacity rapidly. Some analysts seem to think that this growth will eventually push the group off a cliff as governments remove or reduce incentives for solar systems. This assumption is based on the fact that as production increases, solar incentives will become more costly for governments to fund.
What is most likely to happen is that governments will reduce solar system incentives. This is not a problem for the industry as the costs of solar are decreasing. The cost of alternatives to solar like natural gas are increasing. That means governments can still get solar power to grow in the future with smaller incentives. Other uses like solar panels on electric cars could create additional demand. Hopefully solar will reach a point where it will grow without incentives.
There are a lot of companies that are researching and even producing solar from thin-film technology. But they can not meet all of the demand from the market so silicon based solar still has tremendous room to grow. Many of the solar companies are sold out into next year. Article on my web site: "Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room To Grow" shows how small a contribution solar is currently making to world electric production. Shorting these companies, especially the ones that have raised guidance is very dangerous. I am long CSIQ and TSL.