Global Warming Examiner's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/113237/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/128734-why-gm-s-wagoner-and-not-bofa-s-lewis?source=feed#comment-446857 446857
Wagoner has been doing everything he can for the shareholders to keep the game going. Making high margin cars was the only game that had any chance of paying all the costs. That game is finally over. Serious concessions and restructuring are the only way to get the company back to being a viable and profitable enterprise.

The new CEO, Fritz Henderson, has stated that bankruptcy is a possibility and maybe sooner rather than later. Much better negotiating position that is being backed up by the government. One more chance for the UAW and bondholders to make a deal. If they don;t then Obama and the bankruptcy judge will make the deal. Likely cuts will be to any worker payments that are not for current car production. Bond holders might receive equity for debt to cut debt payments.

In either case, the result will be a company that can survive and prosper on its own with its new cost structure. The new GM will likely make better quality cars. We need GM to produce energy efficient cars as global warming and oil shortages haven't gone away. Hopefully the new GM will have little debt and lots of equity to fund the new car designs we will need.

]]> Tue, 31 Mar 2009 14:31:01 -0400
Wagoner has been doing everything he can for the shareholders to keep the game going. Making high margin cars was the only game that had any chance of paying all the costs. That game is finally over. Serious concessions and restructuring are the only way to get the company back to being a viable and profitable enterprise.

The new CEO, Fritz Henderson, has stated that bankruptcy is a possibility and maybe sooner rather than later. Much better negotiating position that is being backed up by the government. One more chance for the UAW and bondholders to make a deal. If they don;t then Obama and the bankruptcy judge will make the deal. Likely cuts will be to any worker payments that are not for current car production. Bond holders might receive equity for debt to cut debt payments.

In either case, the result will be a company that can survive and prosper on its own with its new cost structure. The new GM will likely make better quality cars. We need GM to produce energy efficient cars as global warming and oil shortages haven't gone away. Hopefully the new GM will have little debt and lots of equity to fund the new car designs we will need.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126541-mcmoran-exploration-company-bonanza-or-white-elephant?source=feed#comment-431030 431030
With the overhand of domestic natural gas, which probably won't go away anytime soon, the importation of LNG into the US does not seem to be a viable business. LNG has better markets in other countries that don't have the domestic natural gas resources we have.]]> Wed, 18 Mar 2009 14:16:02 -0400
With the overhand of domestic natural gas, which probably won't go away anytime soon, the importation of LNG into the US does not seem to be a viable business. LNG has better markets in other countries that don't have the domestic natural gas resources we have.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93440-solar-breaks-oil-price-dependence?source=feed#comment-243994 243994 Tax credits for solar power are currently the biggest factor in demand. Due to governments indecisive nature on future credits, solar stocks can have very large price swings as expectations change with political fortune. US government will be deciding on extending credits that expire the end of this year.]]> Tue, 02 Sep 2008 14:39:20 -0400 Tax credits for solar power are currently the biggest factor in demand. Due to governments indecisive nature on future credits, solar stocks can have very large price swings as expectations change with political fortune. US government will be deciding on extending credits that expire the end of this year.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93037-bhp-billiton-painting-a-happy-face-on-iron-ore?source=feed#comment-241978 241978 Fri, 29 Aug 2008 18:23:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91980-how-you-can-invest-in-the-pickens-plan?source=feed#comment-235812 235812
I don't believe many more coal-fired plants will be built because environmentalists have been successful in challenging them on economic grounds:
Global Warming will cause restrictions on future carbon emissions so coal plant operators may not be able to recover their capital costs over the long operating life of these plants. If built the shareholders will loose money because the public utility commissions that regulate these plants will not allow the cost to be passed to the consumers and without that guarantee the utility companies will not build the plants.

Natural Gas fired electric production costs have now become the base cost for electric production in this country.

(Clean coal has too much carbon emissions and sequestering coal plant emissions has not be shown to work yet and may never work at an acceptable cost for large scale plants.)]]> Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:48:36 -0400
I don't believe many more coal-fired plants will be built because environmentalists have been successful in challenging them on economic grounds:
Global Warming will cause restrictions on future carbon emissions so coal plant operators may not be able to recover their capital costs over the long operating life of these plants. If built the shareholders will loose money because the public utility commissions that regulate these plants will not allow the cost to be passed to the consumers and without that guarantee the utility companies will not build the plants.

Natural Gas fired electric production costs have now become the base cost for electric production in this country.

(Clean coal has too much carbon emissions and sequestering coal plant emissions has not be shown to work yet and may never work at an acceptable cost for large scale plants.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90447-while-natural-gas-production-increases-company-stock-prices-may-not?source=feed#comment-229735 229735 Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:29:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89408-what-the-fed-s-latest-decision-means-for-investors?source=feed#comment-224448 224448
It really is a matter of timing. After the banks start expanding loans again, all this liquidity will cause an excessive amount of credit which will fire up inflation. It will be more difficult for the Fed to remove this excess liquidity once it is out in the economy without very high interest rates, reserve requirements. This excess liquidity being pumped into the economy now will be the fuel for future inflation, although it may be slow to show up because banks have not yet started to expand credit. It will eventually show up, by definition just when the bank credit problems look like they are getting better. Good article.]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 16:56:47 -0400
It really is a matter of timing. After the banks start expanding loans again, all this liquidity will cause an excessive amount of credit which will fire up inflation. It will be more difficult for the Fed to remove this excess liquidity once it is out in the economy without very high interest rates, reserve requirements. This excess liquidity being pumped into the economy now will be the fuel for future inflation, although it may be slow to show up because banks have not yet started to expand credit. It will eventually show up, by definition just when the bank credit problems look like they are getting better. Good article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85868-solar-s-warm-but-not-hot-barron-s?source=feed#comment-210830 210830 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:22:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84825-is-there-value-in-silicon-solar-pv?source=feed#comment-206140 206140 What is most likely to happen is that governments will reduce solar system incentives. This is not a problem for the industry as the costs of solar are decreasing. The cost of alternatives to solar like natural gas are increasing. That means governments can still get solar power to grow in the future with smaller incentives. Other uses like solar panels on electric cars could create additional demand. Hopefully solar will reach a point where it will grow without incentives.
There are a lot of companies that are researching and even producing solar from thin-film technology. But they can not meet all of the demand from the market so silicon based solar still has tremendous room to grow. Many of the solar companies are sold out into next year. Article on my web site: "Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room To Grow" shows how small a contribution solar is currently making to world electric production. Shorting these companies, especially the ones that have raised guidance is very dangerous. I am long CSIQ and TSL.]]> Tue, 15 Jul 2008 12:49:05 -0400 What is most likely to happen is that governments will reduce solar system incentives. This is not a problem for the industry as the costs of solar are decreasing. The cost of alternatives to solar like natural gas are increasing. That means governments can still get solar power to grow in the future with smaller incentives. Other uses like solar panels on electric cars could create additional demand. Hopefully solar will reach a point where it will grow without incentives.
There are a lot of companies that are researching and even producing solar from thin-film technology. But they can not meet all of the demand from the market so silicon based solar still has tremendous room to grow. Many of the solar companies are sold out into next year. Article on my web site: "Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room To Grow" shows how small a contribution solar is currently making to world electric production. Shorting these companies, especially the ones that have raised guidance is very dangerous. I am long CSIQ and TSL.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84840-solar-shorts-keep-on-rising-even-as-oil-surprises?source=feed#comment-205325 205325
There are also new applications for solar that could add to demand over the years. Toyota is planning to put solar panels on its Prius in 2010. This could be a developing trend with all electric and hybrid electric cars. As I discussed on my website, solar on a car is cost effective. The solar energy is displacing more expensive gasoline so the electricity produced on a car is worth 31.5 cents per Kwh based on $4.00 gasoline. At $5.00 gasoline the electricity produced is worth 40 cents per Kwh.]]> Mon, 14 Jul 2008 14:01:37 -0400
There are also new applications for solar that could add to demand over the years. Toyota is planning to put solar panels on its Prius in 2010. This could be a developing trend with all electric and hybrid electric cars. As I discussed on my website, solar on a car is cost effective. The solar energy is displacing more expensive gasoline so the electricity produced on a car is worth 31.5 cents per Kwh based on $4.00 gasoline. At $5.00 gasoline the electricity produced is worth 40 cents per Kwh.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83631-the-problem-with-solar-companies-is-not-really-a-problem?source=feed#comment-198163 198163 Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:52:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83580-will-some-solar-companies-face-a-cash-crunch?source=feed#comment-197391 197391 These companies only get into a problem if demand for solar modules diminishes. I posted an article on my website: examiner.com/x-325-Glo...~y2008m5d20-Solar-Cell... where I explain why I think there will be no shortage in demand for solar cells.]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 13:51:22 -0400 These companies only get into a problem if demand for solar modules diminishes. I posted an article on my website: examiner.com/x-325-Glo...~y2008m5d20-Solar-Cell... where I explain why I think there will be no shortage in demand for solar cells.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82821-how-the-fed-s-decision-impacts-you?source=feed#comment-193543 193543 Someone will have to pay for this. The government is effectively debasing our currency so people with savings, bonds, or fixed incomes will fare the worst. Owning real assets as the author described seems like good protection to me. I am currently looking for asset classes other than metals or oil that might offer protection from inflation. Was looking specifically at REITS. If anyone has on opinion on these, post an article or comment.
]]> Thu, 26 Jun 2008 14:14:43 -0400 Someone will have to pay for this. The government is effectively debasing our currency so people with savings, bonds, or fixed incomes will fare the worst. Owning real assets as the author described seems like good protection to me. I am currently looking for asset classes other than metals or oil that might offer protection from inflation. Was looking specifically at REITS. If anyone has on opinion on these, post an article or comment.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82236-the-peak-oil-myth-new-oil-is-plentiful?source=feed#comment-191039 191039 Mon, 23 Jun 2008 13:17:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81557-selling-some-yingli-and-trina-solar-on-dead-cat-bounce?source=feed#comment-187206 187206 I am long term long CSIQ and TSL.
]]> Tue, 17 Jun 2008 14:15:09 -0400 I am long term long CSIQ and TSL.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81600-oshkosh-s-diesel-electric-hybrid-monster-truck?source=feed#comment-187092 187092 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 11:32:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80275-homeowner-equity-at-post-wwii-low?source=feed#comment-179963 179963 Thu, 05 Jun 2008 19:04:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78696-which-are-the-bargains-in-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-174587 174587 ]]> Tue, 27 May 2008 12:38:43 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78606-america-s-energy-policy-coming-to-terms-with-reality?source=feed#comment-172701 172701
Companies like Exxon are slowly going out of business because they can't replace their reserves as fast as they are depleting them. They produce 2.5 million barrels per day. Were do these people in congress expect us to buy our oil? Some of these people think the solution is a windfall profits tax! How much new oil is that going to produce? How much money do they expect to collect from the tax? I guess to be 'fair' you have to make everyone equally poor and miserable.]]> Fri, 23 May 2008 12:33:10 -0400
Companies like Exxon are slowly going out of business because they can't replace their reserves as fast as they are depleting them. They produce 2.5 million barrels per day. Were do these people in congress expect us to buy our oil? Some of these people think the solution is a windfall profits tax! How much new oil is that going to produce? How much money do they expect to collect from the tax? I guess to be 'fair' you have to make everyone equally poor and miserable.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78374-oils-well-that-ends-well?source=feed#comment-171966 171966
The problem here is political. There are a lot of countries that for various reasons are not developing their oil resources. Saudi Arabia is looking longer term. Countries like Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Russia are all using their oil revenue to fund immediate economic needs without making investments that will pay off far in the future (greater than a few years.) Some countries like Mexico and Russia have nationalistic policies that prevent foreign investment in their oil industry. I posted an article on my web site talking about Mexico. They could run out of oil in 10 years. Pemex doesn't have the resources to develop new reserves. They get 40% of their national budget funded with oil. They will be hurt severely if they don't invest in new development. And the liberal congress in Mexico refuses to change their laws and even hold rallies to denounce the politicians who would 'exploit' and 'steal' their resources. Unfortunately, it also sounds a lot like our congress.

Many OPEC countries are experiencing or expecting decreases in future production. Nigeria just announced they expect their production to keep falling. There are not many countries that are increasing production.]]> Thu, 22 May 2008 13:58:04 -0400
The problem here is political. There are a lot of countries that for various reasons are not developing their oil resources. Saudi Arabia is looking longer term. Countries like Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Russia are all using their oil revenue to fund immediate economic needs without making investments that will pay off far in the future (greater than a few years.) Some countries like Mexico and Russia have nationalistic policies that prevent foreign investment in their oil industry. I posted an article on my web site talking about Mexico. They could run out of oil in 10 years. Pemex doesn't have the resources to develop new reserves. They get 40% of their national budget funded with oil. They will be hurt severely if they don't invest in new development. And the liberal congress in Mexico refuses to change their laws and even hold rallies to denounce the politicians who would 'exploit' and 'steal' their resources. Unfortunately, it also sounds a lot like our congress.

Many OPEC countries are experiencing or expecting decreases in future production. Nigeria just announced they expect their production to keep falling. There are not many countries that are increasing production.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78362-peak-oil-stocks-for-the-future?source=feed#comment-171945 171945
We should have a plan to reduce greenhouse emissions and it should start with cutting back on fuels like coal that have the highest carbon emissions for the energy produced. Oil should be in the mix of fuels we use now until we can produce all of our energy from alternative fuels. I have a web site on Global Warming (examiner.com/x-325-Gl... where I discuss how the mix of fuels affects our environment. So called environmentalists who are against any type of fossil fuel production are actually making the global warming situation worse. We are not producing enough new alternative energy to even meet increasing demand, much less replace existing fossil fuel consumption. I could take 40 years to switch to alternative fuels. To suggest that everything will change in a few years is not reasonable. 'All we need is hope' will not put gas in the tank.

Not producing oil from ANWR hurts us economically, about $1 trillion dollars that we will import from foreign countries. It hurts our trade balance which hurts the value of the dollar. It causes industry to move off-shore to countries like China that pollute worse than we do. It hurts the people in Alaska who won't get the tax revenue for their state endowment fund. It hurts everyone who has to pay higher prices for gasoline (special thank you to Bill Clinton), and can't buy an alternative energy vehicle this year. It's not just ANWR, but also all of the oil and gas resources off our coast that can't be utilized.

Drilling in ANWR will only require about 2,000 acres out of 1.2 million acres in the reserve. A lot of infrastructure like the Alaska pipleline is already in place. Some of the time-line estimates include the time to fight the legal challenges. This supply could come on faster than some of the estimates.

I am actually very bullish on natural gas producers. Replacing all of our coal plants with natural gas would cut the emission of carbon dioxide from electric generation in half. But it is not going to happen in 3 years. This would be a huge infrastructure investment in new gas wells and pipelines. Maybe in 30 years, a little at a time. Some of that natural gas may come from ANWR.
]]> Thu, 22 May 2008 13:40:33 -0400
We should have a plan to reduce greenhouse emissions and it should start with cutting back on fuels like coal that have the highest carbon emissions for the energy produced. Oil should be in the mix of fuels we use now until we can produce all of our energy from alternative fuels. I have a web site on Global Warming (examiner.com/x-325-Gl... where I discuss how the mix of fuels affects our environment. So called environmentalists who are against any type of fossil fuel production are actually making the global warming situation worse. We are not producing enough new alternative energy to even meet increasing demand, much less replace existing fossil fuel consumption. I could take 40 years to switch to alternative fuels. To suggest that everything will change in a few years is not reasonable. 'All we need is hope' will not put gas in the tank.

Not producing oil from ANWR hurts us economically, about $1 trillion dollars that we will import from foreign countries. It hurts our trade balance which hurts the value of the dollar. It causes industry to move off-shore to countries like China that pollute worse than we do. It hurts the people in Alaska who won't get the tax revenue for their state endowment fund. It hurts everyone who has to pay higher prices for gasoline (special thank you to Bill Clinton), and can't buy an alternative energy vehicle this year. It's not just ANWR, but also all of the oil and gas resources off our coast that can't be utilized.

Drilling in ANWR will only require about 2,000 acres out of 1.2 million acres in the reserve. A lot of infrastructure like the Alaska pipleline is already in place. Some of the time-line estimates include the time to fight the legal challenges. This supply could come on faster than some of the estimates.

I am actually very bullish on natural gas producers. Replacing all of our coal plants with natural gas would cut the emission of carbon dioxide from electric generation in half. But it is not going to happen in 3 years. This would be a huge infrastructure investment in new gas wells and pipelines. Maybe in 30 years, a little at a time. Some of that natural gas may come from ANWR.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77503-closing-ldk-solar-keeping-trina?source=feed#comment-168900 168900 Fri, 16 May 2008 12:52:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77544-solar-cell-manufacturers-have-room-to-grow?source=feed#comment-168886 168886 Fri, 16 May 2008 12:41:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77544-solar-cell-manufacturers-have-room-to-grow?source=feed#comment-168825 168825 Fri, 16 May 2008 11:38:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76981-nar-s-lawrence-yun-continues-to-mislead-on-housing?source=feed#comment-167132 167132 The prices are going to come down/ be weak until supply equals demand. This will happen when the overhang of people needing or wanting to sell their homes is cleared by people who have a chance to buy more now more affordable homes. The Fed is doing all it can to create easy money for people to buy homes by making mortgages more affordable and increasing inflation which will drive up the value in dollars of real assets like homes.

Are home prices weak - yes
Will home prices keep dropping - maybe
Will home prices fall to 1999 levels - not with current Fed policy

Probably a good time to start looking at the builders again, especially the strongly capitalized ones.
]]> Tue, 13 May 2008 19:05:23 -0400 The prices are going to come down/ be weak until supply equals demand. This will happen when the overhang of people needing or wanting to sell their homes is cleared by people who have a chance to buy more now more affordable homes. The Fed is doing all it can to create easy money for people to buy homes by making mortgages more affordable and increasing inflation which will drive up the value in dollars of real assets like homes.

Are home prices weak - yes
Will home prices keep dropping - maybe
Will home prices fall to 1999 levels - not with current Fed policy

Probably a good time to start looking at the builders again, especially the strongly capitalized ones.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76621-an-energy-policy-that-makes-sense-revisited?source=feed#comment-165196 165196
The one energy resource that we have in abundance that is cleaner than coal is natural gas. Drilling technology has opened up very large shale deposits. Natural Gas could be a bridge fuel that could replace oil and coal in many applications thus reducing our need for more imported oil and starting to clean our environment.

How about developing cars and trucks that run on natural gas? New electric power plants will be built with natural gas as the fuel.

Eventually nuclear, hydrogen from nuclear, and synthetic fuels will dominate, but in the mean time I like the gas producers: APC, CHK, COP, DVN, ECA, EP, SWN, XTO. (I own shares of APC, CHK, COP and SWN)]]> Fri, 09 May 2008 18:40:38 -0400
The one energy resource that we have in abundance that is cleaner than coal is natural gas. Drilling technology has opened up very large shale deposits. Natural Gas could be a bridge fuel that could replace oil and coal in many applications thus reducing our need for more imported oil and starting to clean our environment.

How about developing cars and trucks that run on natural gas? New electric power plants will be built with natural gas as the fuel.

Eventually nuclear, hydrogen from nuclear, and synthetic fuels will dominate, but in the mean time I like the gas producers: APC, CHK, COP, DVN, ECA, EP, SWN, XTO. (I own shares of APC, CHK, COP and SWN)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76536-uranium-safely-and-efficiently-powering-the-future?source=feed#comment-165050 165050 Fri, 09 May 2008 14:59:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76023-commodities-vs-reits?source=feed#comment-163553 163553 Wed, 07 May 2008 14:11:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74828-3-cefs-for-emerging-market-debt-exposure?source=feed#comment-159740 159740 Wed, 30 Apr 2008 18:38:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73752-those-bubbling-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-156132 156132 GW) per year. That is about 2 nuclear plants. The world could use 10 times or more capacity easily as long a governments are going to provide incentives to buyers. These stocks could easily all grow production at 100% or multiple rates for several years before they reach a level of production that saturates demand.
]]> Thu, 24 Apr 2008 17:23:31 -0400 GW) per year. That is about 2 nuclear plants. The world could use 10 times or more capacity easily as long a governments are going to provide incentives to buyers. These stocks could easily all grow production at 100% or multiple rates for several years before they reach a level of production that saturates demand.
]]>