Global Warming Examiner

Solar Power Will Be Transformational in the Next Decade

I am long on CSIQ and TSL because I believe the industry is currently capacity constrained. The shortage of polysilicone is abating and these companies could grow production volume at some very impressive rates for several years. All of the solar producers can make money, I just favor the ones with the lower P/E ratios.

Solar Power Will Be Transformational in the Next Decade

I looked at a 2KW installation for my home and the price, after rebates and credits was about $17,000. The full price was closer to $30,000 without incentives. Assuming 6 hours of full, direct, sunlight per day producing at full power and cost of $0.125 per KWh is $1.50 per day. That's $548 per year (assuming no cloudy days). That is a rate of return on investment of 3.2% per year or a payback time of 31 years.

It is getting closer to being a reasonable investment after credits and rebates. Things that would make the equation more favorable: If power companies would switch to time of day pricing, they would buy peak power for a higher price. Establish low cost loan programs with government guarantees to reduce the cost of borrowing. Raise the price of coal and other fossil fuels. Reduce the cost of solar panels and inverters.

Bottom Line: the subsidies that the solar energy is currently enjoying is creating artificial demand. This demand is important to drive the price of solar systems down so that eventually we will reach the price where solar power is economical on its own merits.

Solar Stocks: Nine That Will Shine in a Bull Market

Amazing set of comments - most about nuclear.

The most expensive cost of nuclear - the one that makes it prohibitive - is the cost of the lawsuits. Go read Public Citizen.

Without the lawsuits it is as cheap or cheaper than coal plants.

Good point that coal has uranium in it and does release a very small amount of radioactivity. (GEE! We are all going to die from years of radioactive exposure from coal plants! lmao!) The other pollutants form coal, like mercury, are much more dangerous.

Have a problem with water? Why not put the plant near the ocean, which is also where most of the population lives and where most of electricity is consumed.