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chipdoctor

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  • Audi Confirms 300-Mile Range EV, Plans To Compete With Tesla [View article]
    "Usual rate $1/hour, which is 10-15 milesper hour for typical EVs."

    Isn't that what we pay for gas now? Why change?
    Nov 23, 2014. 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Audi Confirms 300-Mile Range EV, Plans To Compete With Tesla [View article]
    "I charge everything at home. Leaf blower, lawn mower, shaver, cell phone, cordless phone, etc."

    How many of these battery powered devices last 8 years on their original batteries?
    Nov 23, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Audi Confirms 300-Mile Range EV, Plans To Compete With Tesla [View article]
    "And where will Audi/VW get the batteries and the high-power electric power-train know-how?...

    But Tesla is 10+ years ahead in the parts that matter:
    The electric drive train + battery / charge / cooling etc. tech."

    Maybe they can buy the same cells from Panasonic (or several hundred other 18650 manufacturers) or strike a deal with Nissan/Renault, or with LG Chem (and so on).

    Drive train is not that hard either, they could just buy one from Magna (or others or make their own). Cooling system? I think they have enough experience from ICE to do their own.
    Nov 23, 2014. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Audi Confirms 300-Mile Range EV, Plans To Compete With Tesla [View article]
    "Due to NDA I cannot disclose.

    Tesla is light years ahead of any competition."

    No, they aren't. Due to NDA I cannot disclose.
    Nov 23, 2014. 12:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Macro Trends Supporting $310 Price Target For Tesla Motors [View article]
    "Nice stat from 09. Coal was 62% in 91 why not use that? "

    Thanks, I will. Sorry about being a bit lazy and grabbing the first good (Argonne) reference.

    If 1991 was 62% and 2009 was 52.5% the trend would suggest that another 18 years will get use down to to 43%, still a pretty crappy number.

    I used Argonne as they are the only ones to consider the effect of actual EV charging and the electric plant utilization for that generation

    Overnight charging is mostly coal powered, with peak demands covered by oil/gas.
    Nov 23, 2014. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Macro Trends Supporting $310 Price Target For Tesla Motors [View article]
    "Doctor should look into details:

    1. high density battery packaging and control;
    2. computer controlled EV driving;
    3. Safety design"

    I have, including working of chips for lithium BMS for many of the top car companies, as well as working on microprocessor design for one of the major companies that sell computer chips into automotive.

    I welcome a discussion on ISO26262 (and for this forum, specifically for ASIL D for BMS) and how the industry still is not ready for many of the faults that can occur for battery vehicles, let alone autonomous driving vehicles.

    yanming, did you design the GM ignition switch? Also you should not assume your audience is naive as you are.
    Nov 23, 2014. 12:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Macro Trends Supporting $310 Price Target For Tesla Motors [View article]
    "But, a new engineer design a new one which earned the feedback: "very useful, very powerful." "

    Just because its new or done by a young engineer does not make it better.

    Ignoring previous lessons learned produces future failure, with the appearance of short to intermediate term success.

    yanming, I have seen these "very useful, very powerful" DRCs used, in which people later found out the did not cover everything, which produced project delays and significant additional costs (100's of K) to create new layouts and masks.
    Nov 23, 2014. 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Macro Trends Supporting $310 Price Target For Tesla Motors [View article]
    "I hope you are still commenting on SA by 2020, and we will see what my TSLA investment will be worth."

    I was going to say your TSLA price was going to the moon in 2020, though Mars seems to be more appropriate.
    Nov 22, 2014. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Macro Trends Supporting $310 Price Target For Tesla Motors [View article]
    Blue Sky,

    While solar panels are not yet practical for vehicles, they certainly are for roof tops of houses, which I hope many on this board adopt.
    Nov 22, 2014. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Macro Trends Supporting $310 Price Target For Tesla Motors [View article]
    "Hard to sneak a Corvette past the wife and maintenance would be costly"

    Just let her drive one, preferably a convertible. I agree it would be nice to have one of each.

    The worst cost maintenance item (for both cars) is the tires.
    Nov 22, 2014. 03:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Macro Trends Supporting $310 Price Target For Tesla Motors [View article]
    yanming_sv,

    "problem solving is the only criteria" -- for an engineer, that is everything."

    And there is the problem. Problems need to be solved with practical solutions that meet the bean counter's goals (main problem with GM).

    I have worked with enough arrogant (usually CA) engineers that believe they know better on how to solve a problem (usually believing there are better than the predecessors) in which they ultimately find out the errors of their ways. Experience is a good teacher, and as it applies here, Audi has more experience building vehicles than Tesla.

    I do not hate you, why would you even suggest this? Do you think everyone that has a different opinion hates you?
    Nov 22, 2014. 03:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Macro Trends Supporting $310 Price Target For Tesla Motors [View article]
    "PHEVs prove that battery electric is the future. Why go both?"

    Because electric is the best option for short range, while petro remains the most dense and cost effective fuel for long range (which may be replaced by hydrogen).
    Nov 22, 2014. 03:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Macro Trends Supporting $310 Price Target For Tesla Motors [View article]
    What is "logical" is that new PHEVs are going to give Tesla serious competition...below in only one example.

    Expect more 3 cylinder turbo-charged, mid-sized battery pack vehicles in the intermediate future. the first 60 miles are electric, then the rest are range unlimited at 60-80 mpg.

    http://bit.ly/11Dkxiw
    Nov 21, 2014. 02:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Macro Trends Supporting $310 Price Target For Tesla Motors [View article]
    "Roof PV - using the entire roof of a 40' trailer- might extend the range by 50 miles/day in good (very sunny) conditions - minimally practical IMO."

    The engineer in me just had to take a shot at this. Ignore the rest of this unless you have geek interest.

    A trailer roof is 2m * 13m or 26m^2. Solar luminance is roughly 1KW/m^2 or 26 KW for this trailer roof panel. Average efficiency of cost effective panels are roughly 15.5% (slightly high to make the numbers easier) yielding 4KW of power generation.

    This panel should obtain about 4.5hrs of solar insolation (hours of useful sun to generate power) as an US average, so the panel would produce 18 KWHr/day.

    The model S uses about 0.4KWhr/mile. This panel would produce about 45 model S miles.

    However, the truck would consume power at the 7X rating, yielding about 6.5 miles of range (or about 1 gallon of Diesel).
    Nov 21, 2014. 01:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Macro Trends Supporting $310 Price Target For Tesla Motors [View article]
    "Those trucks aren't dependent on batteries. They run off overhead power lines, they are not BEVs they are also diesel hybrids."

    Add steel wheels and rails (to replace those questionable Tesla tires) and Tesla has invested the modern train.
    Nov 21, 2014. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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