# michelodu

michelodu
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• ##### Why The Federal Employees Health Benefits Letter Is A Big Deal For Belviq  [View article]

what about the other 30%? What is needed, and is it feasible this year?

Also, what is your take on other countries like Mexico and Canada: will it be possible to track scripts with the same frequency as in the US?

Michel
(JapanMontrealExpat on Yahoo boards)
Apr 9, 2014. 03:05 PM | 5 Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Direct-To-Consumer Television Advertising Marks The Tipping Point For Belviq Sales  [View article]
Utterly nonsensical interpretation. The appropriate denominator for the refill rate is whatever the original prescription number was when those patients first received their script, not the current number. Let's posit that the growth on a per-month basis were 100%, and that patients received a month's worth of drugs. In month 1, using 1000 scripts as a simple round number, and 2000 scripts in month 2, if 400 patients were renewing in month two, by your logic the refil rate would be a paltry 20%, when in fact it would amount to 40% of the original 1000 patients, and this may discount the number of patients who might refill at a later date, because they took less than the prescribed amount.
Mar 26, 2014. 12:25 PM | 3 Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Arena Sees Growth Continue With Belviq  [View article]
One more comment worth making. I teach statistical fitting as part of a class on simulation, and one of the things that we teach 2nd-year students is to be careful not to assume that something is an independent and identically distributed (IID) Poisson process, resulting in a single exponential curve, when it isn't.

At the very least, this is a Nonstationary Poisson Process (NSPP), which clearly requires a piecewise fitting based on different sections of the curve. The fact that the conditions are different is known to everyone: after all, DTC advertising did not start till January, 2014; television won't kick in until April, 2014. My 2nd-year students would all know better than to try to fit the whole schmeer with one exponential, as if it were one IID Poisson process.

The lack of numeracy of this author is appalling.
Mar 7, 2014. 05:40 PM | 13 Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Arena Sees Growth Continue With Belviq  [View article]
There can be in fact no convincing answer to that question on his part. I would speculate out loud, but I'm not interested in a defamation lawsuit.

In any event, I don't respond to his column much, so I'm pretty sure that I can quit his columns cold turkey, without Belviq :-), but less than convinced that he can find something else about which to write.
Mar 7, 2014. 05:33 PM | 5 Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Arena Sees Growth Continue With Belviq  [View article]
"Lunacy is getting worse by the week." No one is asking you to post every week. You need us a lot more than we need you.
Mar 7, 2014. 04:49 PM | 10 Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Arena Sees Growth Continue With Belviq  [View article]
Interesting comment, Tunetopper. Will they comply (will the manipulation lessen), or find a way around it, in your opinion?
Mar 7, 2014. 04:14 PM | 2 Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Arena Pharmaceuticals - Why I Believe It Is The Next Major Biotech  [View article]
Wow, KLLJ, that did not take much prompting on my part. :-) Very timely article.
Michel
Jan 16, 2014. 12:10 PM | 5 Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Dendreon: Provenge should be given as soon as possible.  [View instapost]
Hi Giancarlo,

thanks for your kind reply. This is a nice development. It looks like using the larger label in Europe could lead to profitability and help pay for US studies that could lead to expansion in the US. I like this idea of using geographically distributed market to bootstrap the company to profitability.

I'm looking to buy back into DNDN over the next few months.

Michel
Dec 2, 2013. 12:53 PM | Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Dendreon: Provenge should be given as soon as possible.  [View instapost]
Just wondering if this is still true. Is the label indication for Provenge being extended?
Nov 29, 2013. 08:46 AM | Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Deeper Research: Belviq + Phentermine Equals What?  [View instapost]
Why don't you rotate your figure? If you want to make a big impact, be a perfectionist about these details, as persuasive as is the data.
Aug 30, 2013. 03:49 PM | 1 Like |Link to Comment
• ##### 2 Oversold Stocks Under \$5 Being Snapped Up By Insiders  [View article]
Okay. Do you think that this is baked into the price?
Dec 9, 2012. 10:55 PM | Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### 2 Oversold Stocks Under \$5 Being Snapped Up By Insiders  [View article]
200K or 200M? Isn't the number of shares outstanding 246M? How is that 50%?
Dec 4, 2012. 11:18 AM | Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Stocks: Election Results Push Fannie Mae Common Up  [View instapost]
Okay, which one in your opinion, and why not both?
Nov 13, 2012. 11:29 AM | Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Stocks: Election Results Push Fannie Mae Common Up  [View instapost]
Hi David,
when do you see the situation being resolved? 2013?
Michel
Nov 9, 2012. 05:35 PM | Likes |Link to Comment
• ##### Fannie's And Freddie's Huge Profits Raise Questions For Future Of Mortgage Finance  [View article]
Can we interpret this instead as a sign that the government will eventually sell their stake at a significant profit, and abandon the plan to wind down these companies?

Michel
Oct 10, 2012. 12:01 PM | Likes |Link to Comment