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BHL

BHL
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  • J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
    would have been more helpful if you told me about the "ackman pain trade" before JCPs massive move down and HLF's massive move back up from mid to high 20's.

    you'd put it on now??
    Jan 18, 2013. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Herbalife (HLF) are getting a bump in after hours trade on the back of comments made by trader Karen Fineman on CNBC's show Fast Money. Fineman suggested that it's possible that long holders like Dan Loeb could ignite a short squeeze by pulling their stock from margin. Shares +1% AH. [View news story]
    thats the kind of comment that usually marks tops
    Jan 15, 2013. 08:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy St. Jude Medical On The Dip [View article]
    Good call Canadian dividend investor, I wished I listened.
    Jan 2, 2013. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Herbalife (HLF -2.3%) finish the day well into negative territory despite a higher opening in response to an earlier upbeat research note from D.A. Davidson's Timothy Ramey, calling the company a best idea for 2013. Ramey cites a possible takeout bid or a potential deal for HLF to snap up a peer. He says growth could accelerate this year given that forex should be less of a drag, and sales out of China are likely to become a significant part of it's revenue model. The firm maintains a Buy rating with $72 price target over the near term, while its long-term target remains at $120. [View news story]
    I have no skin in the game on HLF, but watch out for the analyst Ramey. He will get you killed. See DMND. He was arguably the biggest bull on that name, telling you to buy all the way down from at least $50 (maybe higher) to current ~$14. And then he also is touting USNA with an $80 PT. I mean, he backs all the really controversial names and he is just dangerous. He tells you to buy some real hairy stuff, and I am not sure he does any real work beyond listening to what management tells him. Scary.
    Jan 2, 2013. 04:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings (SHLD) moves up 3.1% premarket after shares dipped below the $40 mark for the first time since January. Hedgeye's Keith McCullough thinks high short interest names such as Sears are scaring hedge funds in the current atmosphere. If that's the case, a short squeeze rally into year end could be on tap. [View news story]
    Thanks for laying out the thesis on SHLD MSF, its def interesting, non consensus call. I like those.
    Dec 7, 2012. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy St. Jude Medical On The Dip [View article]
    of course stock goes up every day, as i avoid it...sa-weeet.
    Dec 7, 2012. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings (SHLD) moves up 3.1% premarket after shares dipped below the $40 mark for the first time since January. Hedgeye's Keith McCullough thinks high short interest names such as Sears are scaring hedge funds in the current atmosphere. If that's the case, a short squeeze rally into year end could be on tap. [View news story]
    yeah, i guess there is a high short interest in SHLD. Although what Keith should mention is that short interest has halved in the last year or so. In Jan 2012 the SI on SHLD was ~16 mill shares and now it is ~8 mill shares. But still its 19% of float so that is pretty high...its just not astronomical like it used to be.
    Dec 7, 2012. 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy St. Jude Medical On The Dip [View article]
    I think some of the valuation data is interesting. I have never seen a FAST chart/analysis, that is kind of interesting. Though not sure why the author thinks STJ is a small company or smaller company? Compared to what? It has a $10.5 bill market cap on $5.5 bill in revs. Of course there are much larger companies than STJ, but is STJ a small company? Really? The reason it dropped a lot in a short time period is there is a potential quality issue with one of their key products. And quality problems in healthcare are particularly bad because beyond customer issues that any company deals with, you have to deal with the FDA and that is no fun.
    Dec 4, 2012. 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NuPathe Facts On A Very Undervalued Play [View article]
    I don't think I am wrong. You should ask the company about how they have it worked out.
    Oct 22, 2012. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NuPathe Facts On A Very Undervalued Play [View article]
    I think I am correct. Warrants are like call options that are issued directly by companies to investors, typically in financings like these. Call options that are in the money (employee stock options I mean) would count in the diluted shares outstanding calculations.
    And warrants that are in the money (these are, the strike is $2.00) also count toward total shares outstanding.
    I like the stock and the company, I'm with you guys fundamentally. I just think you are making an important mistake in valuing the thing.
    Think of it this way, if a larger company comes in tomorrow to acquire PATH, they will have to pay whatever the negotiated price is multiplied by the number of shares outstanding AND by the warrants. They will have to make the warrant holders whole.
    So if a company is going to pay $10, they would have to pay $10 x 28 mill or $280 mill. And then they would have to exercise the 14 mill warrants which would convert at $2 - so effectively they would pay another net $8 per share for 14 mill shares or $112 mill. So the TOTAL purchase price of the acquisition @ $10 would be $280 mill +$112 mill = $392 mill.
    It simply means that the company has to have a higher total value than what you are saying to achieve $8-10 per share.
    Oct 18, 2012. 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google (GOOG) has resumed trading after releasing an official Q3 report that largely matches its draft report. Shares are down 7.5%, a little above the levels they were at when shares were halted. Citi's Mark Mahaney, who was singing Google's praises last month, calls the report "negatral," and isn't happy with Motorola's performance. Piper notes revenue derived from Google-owned sites was up just 2.5% Q/Q after rising 8% the last two years. (more[View news story]
    Amazing, this market is so tough. You could have bought GOOG in July and still be up close to 20% ~3 months later after the pooched the qtr. So you could have bought GOOG, gotten the qtr and fundamental trends totally wrong, and still be up 20%. Man, it must be hard to be doing a lot of shorting in this market.
    Oct 18, 2012. 03:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor: Results Of Our Physician Survey Suggest Increased Sales For Acthar Gel [View article]
    Thank you for the article and sharing your survey results, much appreciated.

    I am interested in QCOR long but my biggest concern is private insurers and/or medicare following AET's decision...so that more than just ~5% of their revenue ultimately becomes impacted.

    How are you getting comfortable with the risk of more negative payor revisions? UNH made a change recently there, doesn't seem as bad as AET's?

    Again my biggest fear is buying this now and riding the stock lower on a flurry of more negative coverage developments.

    Would love your thoughts.
    Oct 8, 2012. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NuPathe Facts On A Very Undervalued Play [View article]
    I think the financing deal they just did takes the fully diluted share count up to 43 mil shares, not 28 mill, so very dilutive financing.

    Which is fine if they get approval, you still make money from here for sure. I just think you have to factor in price target based on 43 mill shares out.

    So current mkt cap is much higher than $98 mill. Its $3.80 x 43 mill = $163 mill mkt cap.

    The original shares out were about 15 mill, pre-financing. Then this deal is 14 mill prefered shares issued and each prefered share comes with one warrant...both prefered and warrants are convertable to common stock at $2.00 per share. Stock is well above that now, so you have to assume 28 mill new shares in your fully diluted calculation. And if even more important to include them if you think Zelrix gets approved bc then for sure those will all be converted to common as the stock will surely prevail above $2.00.

    So thus my math is 15 mill +28 milll = 43 mill fully diluted shares and $163 mil mkt cap.

    So if you value at $10 per share based on 28 mm shares out, you asume value of ~$280 mill. So take the $280 mill and divide by 43 mill shares fully diluted, and you get ~$6.50.

    Still nice upside from here, but not as dramatic.
    Oct 5, 2012. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed And mREITs: A Match Made In Heaven [View article]
    What about the Fed actually buying mortgage backed securites as a method of stimulus? How much of this has the Fed been doing thus far post 08-09 crash vs buying treasuries and what is the outlook there?
    If the Fed bought more MBS, presumably that would help mREITs or is that not correct?

    Thanks
    Aug 22, 2012. 09:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brick-and-mortar retail nightmare: A study from research firm GroupM Next indicates that 45% of shoppers at a physical store will walk out and complete their purchase online if they can find price savings of 2.5% or more. At 5% savings, the number jumps to 60% of shoppers. The Amazon (AMZN) Effect continues to rev up as the numbers of shoppers who check product pricing on-the-fly with their mobile devices now stands at a whopping 44%. Pass the aspirin: SPLS, OMX, ODP, RSH, HGG, CONN, DKS, TGT, WMT, GPS[View news story]
    If and when AMZN has to show more operating profit leverage and thus more EPS, what will AMZN do? Will they have to increase prices? That is one way to quickly improve profits, but it will erode their competitive positioning on price relative to bricks and mortar stores.

    AMZN has been amazing, but I worry about that...are they taking share because they can sell products more cheaply than bricks and mortar stores, but at the cost of profitability and returns on assets and capital invested?

    Maybe the goal is to put a bunch of traditional retailers out of business, and then when there are fewer options for customers, AMZN will raise prices on the stuff they sell. But that seems too cute.
    Aug 21, 2012. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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