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W999surf

W999surf
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  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Buy, Hold Or Sell? [View article]
    How did that work out for you today?
    May 12 04:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: 2014 Earnings Forecast Using Current Iron Ore Futures Prices [View article]
    I have ran the numbers as well and come up with CLF earning 50 cents in 2014 Q1 and $3 for the year. Guess we will see who is closer.
    Mar 25 07:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: 2014 Earnings Forecast Using Current Iron Ore Futures Prices [View article]
    You are not taking account for CLF's long term contracts. Look at their average revenue changes from quarter to quarter as it relates to spot and you will see it does not move at the same rate. You also are not accounting for the revenue that CLF takes in on shipping iron ore on their own vessels. Basically, you totally ignored their entire business structure. A totally worthless analysis.
    Mar 25 05:31 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Takeover Names We Are Watching [View article]
    Iron ore is becoming like gravel, you need to produce it where you sell it, transportation cost equals the cost to produce it. So if any of the large players want to supply the US market, they will need to buy out CLF for the local supply, but more important the transportation network that CLF owns. You really need to look at the total business before you jump to any conclusions!
    Mar 25 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Proxy Battle Could Equal Massive Gains For Shareholders [View article]
    With CLF's long term contracts for their US customers, falling iron ore prices make CLF more attractive because their locked prices that minimize the effects of falling prices. When the restructuring is done, CLF will be selling for $50. If any of the big 3 miners want to get a foothold in the US market, they would be wise to try to buy CLF now.
    Mar 11 09:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale: Undervalued, Cyclical Bet On China's Resurging Commodity Demand [View article]
    The trouble with Vale is that they are in S America and there is no market there for iron ore. With a commodity that sells for $120 a ton, it is shipping and handling that does not allow you to be competitive. Vale may be able to produce iron ore for $25 a ton, but they cannot deliver it to the US mills for less than CLF can sell it for and their cost is $65 a ton. The reason is CLF provides the complete transportation and distribution service to the mills and the margins they make on that reduces their cost to $50 a ton.

    Bottom line, they need to buy out CLF to get this key transportation system and established customers. Then they can bring their ore from S America up to a N American port and distribute it through their own system.
    Mar 8 08:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Broke Up With Canada On Valentine's Day [View article]
    James, if you believe the analyst are right about the direction iron ore is headed, then you are right. But if you pull up the futures prices of iron ore on the DaLian exchange, the average price for 2014 is north of $140 a ton. To be honest, these same analyst said iron ore was going under $100 during 2013 Q4 with Littlewood from CS having the worse track record of any analyst.

    Now I agree that the cost of production for these Canadian mines is to high, it does warrant shutting them down, not selling them at today's market value. Using part of the $1+ billion in cash that CLF generates a year to pay down debt instead of paying out for Cap-Ex is a better route and will generate much more shareholder equity than selling these assets now.

    It is worth the gamble to hold the assets now and if iron ore gets up over $150, they should then sell these assets at a much higher price than they would get today. If iron ore does not reach those levels, no problem because in two years they will be debt free generating $150 million more income than they are generating today.
    Feb 19 02:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Broke Up With Canada On Valentine's Day [View article]
    Now is the time not to sell these properties, just hold them. Without Cap-Ex spending, CLF has demonstrated that they can pay down their debt at a rate of $400 million a quarter. In two years they will be debt free and still have these properties to tap their capacity to handle future demand. As demand increases, the value of these properties increase adding more value to the company.

    It is like the homebuilders, those that sold their land holdings during the downturn are really suffering today as building lots are getting harder to find and cost 3 times more than they got for them at the bottom.
    Feb 19 01:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: In A Deep Hole [View article]
    Matt,
    Q2 iron ore was down to $110, CLF made 82 cents, 1.20 non GAAP because of a non cash charge. They also generated more than $400 million in free cash flow. Really, did you look at Q1 and Q2 earnings or did you just take the word of some half baked analyst that have clients with short interest.

    With iron ore averaging $135 for Q3, CLF will make $7 million for ever dollar iron ore is over $125 (Q2's average), that is $70 million in profits if they produce the same amount of iron ore or about 49 cents per share. That doesn't even include the increases in met coal where we are at 3 month highs.

    It is time you look at the real numbers yourself, not some crazy analyst that has their Q3 earnings at 1 cent!
    Aug 26 04:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Renren Is Not A Good Option To Invest In: Income Statement Analysis [View article]
    RENN has no debt!, $1 billion in cash and great revenue stream. Will turn a profit this year. You have to understand with depreciation and writing off acquisition cost, RENN is building cash off their revenue while posting a slight loss. This company is building to be a big gainer!
    Apr 9 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton: My Top Pick For Oil And Gas Services In 2013 [View article]
    One thing hanging over HAL, the Gulf oil spill. They have failed to settle on existing lawsuits and there are still many pending ones outstanding.
    Feb 7 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The Homebuilders [View article]
    PHM did mark to market their land holdings during the down years and now have a good supply of land at a super low price point. And as land prices increase, it means their land's margins increase and their profits increase accordingly.

    PHM will come out as the top builder in the US as this housing recovery continues. This is one stock I would not short.
    Jan 21 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Housing Now: 'Priced To Perfection' Is A Losing Trade [View article]
    I love the way the author cherry picked PE and forward PE to make his point. For example, the forward PE for PHM is 13 which is much lower than the current PE in the mid 30's.

    The author is not seeing the current demand and the future demand growth along with the limited increases in supply. Furthermore he is missing the fact that 50% of the builders are out of business and due to financial restrictions, most of these builders will not be able to return to the market.

    We are just in the beginnings of the housing recovery and these builders that are left standing will see huge growth.
    Nov 16 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Housing Now: 'Priced To Perfection' Is A Losing Trade [View article]
    Maybe housing in Greece won't recover, but we are in the BEGINNING of a strong uptrend in housing today. The best part is there are 50% fewer builders today that will be sharing the increased business. And due to financial restrictions, it will be harder to add new builders as the business picks up.

    By the end of 2014, most of these US builders will be 50 to 75 percent higher.
    Nov 16 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Halliburton Has Upside To The Mid-$40s [View article]
    The CFO just negated your entire analysis. This stock will be down into earnings then will go up when HAL beats estimates.
    Sep 5 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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