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Xavier M

Xavier M
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  • The Euromess Continues [View article]
    We haven't seen the end to this mess yet. Germany has lost all hopes for Greece and they don't regard this one's pulling out of the euro as a dramatic situation anymore, by the end of the year, it's very likely that Greece will be out.

    The main question remans: what does Germany want ? Does it want to create an euro for the central and north european economies which will exclude Spain, Portugal and Italy ? or Greece will be the only expection. I

    Who knows; Only time will tell, meanwhile shorts postion on the € continue to be a great investment option. I swtill think we can get to the end of the year with a 1$ =1€.
    Jul 30 09:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan GDP Q1: +3.5% (annualized) vs. 2.7% expected. [View news story]
    Meanwhile France and Germany are already in almost recesion again.
    May 16 03:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst Targets And Earnings Roundup: What You Need To Know About Dangdang [View article]
    The most important figure that almost everybody leaves out in Dang recent earnings is gross profit growth. The last two quarters gross profit has grown very nicely. I never understood this custom to look the total sales figures instead of the gross profit ones, of course you will have huge sales if you give your stuff for free !

    In 4Q 2012 gross profit has grown a nice 68% - 216,04 CNY vs 128,91 CNY - y/y.

    The following quarters total revenue sales growth will be slower because the company will be basing more of its operations in commission based revenue, just the likes of Ebay or Amazon do using third party operators.

    As a consequence, gross profit figures should grow steadily and the expenditure will be gradually reduced.

    I expect this company to be profitable or to have 0 operating loses by the end of 2014.

    Dang represents around 5% of my total portfolio and I'm holding tight for the future.

    With a market capit. of only $ 312 M at almost cash level, loses being reduced steadily and 2013 expected total sales at $ 1 B; this could be a spectacular high flyer in the near future. One of these rare speculative stocks with inmense potential.
    Mar 19 06:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • E Commerce China Dangdang's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    You missed the most important part. The 2013 Q1 guidance is awful !. only 20% growth.

    Considering they raised revenue guidance in the 3Q 2012 for the 4Q 2012 I am very surprised to see such a low number.

    DangDang was suppose to growth at around 30% in 2013. Now they tell us 20%. For a growth stock, 20% is very low and not appealing at all.

    I liked the cash increase to $ 262 M, and the loses have been reduced nicely, but the growth data is jut very bad.

    Even considering the growth data, this stock continues being grossly undervalued. Right now, it is trading for only $57 M over cash, which is very low. DangDang milions of customers and platform are worth far more that M 57 $.
    Mar 8 05:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • During a lively Q2 earnings call (live blog), Zynga (ZNGA) partly attributed its poor results/guidance to changes made to Facebook's app discovery platform that favor newer games. Those changes led to a 34% Y/Y drop in users for live games. Zynga was also quick to blame $210M acquisition Draw Something, and is hoping online gambling (international markets launch in 1H13) will give it a lift. CEO Mark Pincus is drawing heat for selling $200M in stock in March. ZNGA -37.8%. FB -8%.  [View news story]
    Facebook will tarde under 10 bucks in no time.
    Jul 26 04:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook's Future Isn't As Bleak As Its IPO [View article]
    I still can't believe that so many people fell for the Facebook scam perperated by Wall Street.

    You have to be a first class loser to have gotten into the most obvious overinflated IPO of all time. More than 100 times earnings, 100 bilion market capitali., please...

    Facebook as an ad platform is a failure, major companies have started to realise that and are pulling off. Facebook would be a great speculative investment with a market capitalization at around 7 bilion $, 10 bilion $ at much. Current valuation is too high, valuation at the IPO was totally insane.
    Jun 8 05:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • E-Commerce China Dangdang (DANG) is upgraded by Morgan Stanley to an Overweight rating and assigned a price target of $6.50. DANG +5.1% premarket to $6.00. [View news story]
    With 2013 expected revenue expected around 1,05B $ and margins improving quarter over quarter, this could be an amazing high flyer this year. An important chinese firm has already stated that in 3Q 2013 it can achieve breakeven.
    May 20 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dangdang's Q4 Earnings Preview [View article]
    Hello Justin,

    To me, it is very clear why it tanked so much. It was the 2013 Q1 revenue guidance growth of only 20% increase year over year.

    Considering that they raised 4Q 2012 revenue guidance in 3Q 2012; I am very baffled with this poor guidance for 2013. What has happend in a few months. ?

    DangDang was to suppose to grow at around 30% or more in 2013. For a growth stock, 20% is very low and not appealing at all.

    I liked the cash increase to $ 262 M, and the loses have been reduced nicely, but the growth data is jut very bad.

    Even considering the terrible guidance for 2013, the company continues being grossly undervalued, as it is only trading at around € 57 M over cash and in two to three years it is very likely that can turn a profit, because it is very conservative with it's cash and expenses.

    If you find out something about why the 2013 revenue guidance has been reduced so much, please let us know !!!

    Xavier,
    Mar 8 05:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider This Chinese Stock For Your Portfolio [View article]
    MCOX has had net revenues decreasing year over year since 2011.

    Thanks, I didn't know about the change to C2C. We'll have to wait and see.
    Mar 2 02:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider This Chinese Stock For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Another important point is DangDang's cooperation with Taobao's Tmall, which will reduce marketing and web traffic costs.

    With 2013 projected revenue at $ 1.130M, still growing around 35%-40% year over year, almost no debt, margins stabilizing at around 15%, and loses decreasing, I also think that Dang is grossly undervalued with a $ 327 market cap.

    With the current revenue growth, this will be a $2B sales-company in 2015, and very likely, It will turn a profit in 1.5-2 years time.
    Feb 21 03:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Hits A New All-Time Low: Buy Soon [View article]
    I won't go to 40$ anytime soon, maybe never again. Facebook is a huge dissapointment as an ad plattform, companies are starting to pull out and spend less money on it. The company has too much uncertanty to be appelaing right now (too much risk, not enough reward) and if you look at APPL and GOOG PE, it is still way overvalued.

    My best guess is that it will finish the year below 15$.
    Aug 1 03:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's GDP grew an annualized +4.7% in Q1, a notable increase from the preliminary estimate of +4.1% growth. Private demand was revised upward as the domestic economy responded to certain government incentives and post-earthquake reconstruction. Domestic demand will likely remain on a recovery trajectory this year.
     [View news story]
    A country with dead demografics growing at a 4,7%.
    Jun 8 05:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dangdang: Next Amazon Or Next Apple? [View article]
    Hello Kevin,

    Don't you think that with the recent upside movement to more than 8$ a share, Dang is a little overpriced and not as attractive ?
    Jan 29 05:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dangdang Q1 2013 Earnings Preview [View article]
    Bank of China report predicts that the company will get a profit by mid 2014, one year before it was anticipated.

    If the predictions are correct, It will very likely surpass 10$ by the end of the year and it could go much much higher when it turns a profit.

    With its margins improving quarter over quarter; 2014 projected revenues are 1.35B $. Current market cap. is only 525M $, so it is trading at half its 2013 sales. In two to three years years this could be a $ 2-3B dollar company with share price of $ 24 - 36 . (Around 350-450 % gain with current share price)
    May 21 04:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dangdang Q1 2013 Earnings Preview [View article]
    Looks like Dang is bound to break even the next year. In Q12013 margins are up to a nice 17,2% and gross profit up 51% year over year.
    May 16 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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