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  • In The Land Of Irrelevant Numbers, Tesla Puts Down A Stake [View article]
    You're right. Only the 125,000,000 people in the US with houses do. If that's the limit to Tesla's market, I think they'll do fine for a long, long time.
    Jul 11, 2014. 03:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Myth Of Zero Emissions And Why It's A Problem For Chinese Sales [View article]
    I like how the author thinks that gasoline just bubbles up from the ground goes straight into his gas tank. Here's some news: it takes more electricity to extract, refine, transport, and pump a gallon of gas than it does to propel an EV 30 miles.

    Plus, most people charge their EVs at night, which will be on vast quantities of UNUSED base load power generation capacity sized for peak daytime use.

    No, China (or any country for that matter) would see a considerable _reduction_ of electricity consumption if they switched to 100% EVs overnight.

    The only ones who should be concerned are the ones in the business of refining gasoline.
    Apr 24, 2014. 11:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Myth Of Zero Emissions And Why It's A Problem For Chinese Sales [View article]
    "Toxic batteries"?!? Care to cite which of the components of Tesla's NCA lithium ion batteries you're referring to?

    Nickel
    Cobalt
    Aluminum
    Lithium ion
    Graphite (synthetic from Japan)

    Oh, you probably mean the Lead in its 12V automotive battery. Good news, those are cheaply and efficiently recycled, thanks to them being used in every car produced for the last 100 years.
    Apr 24, 2014. 11:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Kicks China Plans Into High Gear [View article]
    According to that data, Mr. Bailout, over the most recent three quarters (Q2, Q3, Q4 2013) - when Tesla had finally ramped production and gotten margins up - their long term debt load increased by only $8M. Seeing as during those 9 months they were expanding their Supercharger, show room, and service center networks significantly I'd cite that as the reason for a tiny increase in debt, not car sales.
    Apr 14, 2014. 11:04 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Somewhere In Europe, 100 Model S' Destroy A Myth [View article]
    No, because I'd still be driving a Chevy Camero.
    Mar 21, 2014. 08:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Somewhere In Europe, 100 Model S' Destroy A Myth [View article]
    Well, those 100 cars are gone. Only 2 left. So, if you believe there really were 100+ cars up for sale by Tesla Germany, the headline now should read: "Tesla sells 100 cars in a single day in Germany!"

    Their March numbers should see a considerable spike up if true. Sounds great for Tesla. Thanks Paulo Santos for the amazing article and bullish data point!
    Mar 21, 2014. 11:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Deflationary Creative Destruction Has Not Even Begun [View article]
    Average selling price of cars in the US today is $35k. If Tesla can hit that price point with the Model E, they have half of the addressable car market in the US available to them.
    Mar 18, 2014. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Deflationary Creative Destruction Has Not Even Begun [View article]
    Tesla warranties the battery for 8 years and unlimited miles. There are no indications the batteries will need to be replaced anywhere near "5 to 6 years."

    Also, the lithium ion batteries used in Teslas don't die, they just degrade. Meaning that after 12 - 15 years, depending on mileage, you'll be left with a battery that can only hold 70% of its original charge, but one that still functions. Too short for driving anymore, but still useful for grid-tied energy storage. Therefore the useful life of each of these batteries runs into the 25+ year range.
    Mar 18, 2014. 11:27 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Planned Domination Of Planet Earth Continues On Or Ahead Of Schedule [View article]
    You can read their quarterly reports to find out exactly how much they have. At the end of Q3 they had $800mm cash on hand. After a record blow out Q4 with 25% gross margins on car sales they'll likely have that much or more on hand despite their Supercharger, store, and service center expansions.

    This is a real sustaining business now.
    Jan 22, 2014. 11:47 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heads Spinning Over Tesla's Tuesday News [View article]
    There are only 11 production weeks in a quarter, as Tesla shuts down the line for 1 or 2 weeks a quarter for time off and retooling.
    Jan 14, 2014. 01:57 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Fundamentally, One Of The Worst Stocks To Buy At The Current Price [View article]
    Where were you guys 12 months ago? Welcome to 2012! Oh, sorry you missed it.
    Nov 26, 2013. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Fundamentally, One Of The Worst Stocks To Buy At The Current Price [View article]
    Joe, that's a great analogy. Tesla has as much in common with GM as Amazon does Walmart.

    10 years ago I would have said "as Amazon does Borders" but we all know how that turned out. :-)
    Nov 26, 2013. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Fundamentally, One Of The Worst Stocks To Buy At The Current Price [View article]
    tftf: Can you site some references on just how much a "giga" battery factory would cost to build? It's fun to speculate and all, but I have no reference to go off of to say whether it's going to be "billions" as you say or simply "a billion" or even "hundreds of millions" to build it. If it's the latter, Tesla already raised the cash earlier this year.
    Nov 26, 2013. 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Fundamentally, One Of The Worst Stocks To Buy At The Current Price [View article]
    Regarded: Do you own AMZN? Because by your metrics, you and your readers should have been shorting the heck out of it the last several years. How would that have worked out?
    Nov 26, 2013. 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric Vehicle Sales: It's All About The Cells (Most Bullish TSLA Analysts Still Miss The Supply Side) [View instapost]
    tftf, I must commend you on writing the first and only short thesis on Tesla I've read that holds any merit. All of the other short pieces out there have been absolutely drivel and just nonsense. Well done, and thank you for putting together something useful and thought provoking for us longs.

    It's also interesting to note that TSLA reached its all time high just 2 days after JB gave that talk at Standford. I think some smart money, both long and short, took notice then. I also believe the revelation of the need for a giga battery factory on the Q3 earnings call is what triggered the post earnings drop, not the earnings themselves (which were quite good).

    One correction I wanted to point out is that JB said quite clearly in the Stanford video that nickel is Tesla's most expensive input, not cobalt. I believe the NCA chemistry used by Tesla relies on only trace amounts of cobalt. A look at nickel supply would be informative.
    Nov 26, 2013. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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