Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Will347's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Here's Why 3D Systems Will Not Fail [View article]
    most likely part of the excessive market cap DDD carries is arbitrage/pricing a big vendor like HP out of an acquisition.
    Feb 2, 2014. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why 3D Systems Will Not Fail [View article]
    all I know is the glasses they show would have horrible optical properties, despite being really impressive obviously.
    Feb 2, 2014. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq? [View article]
    still more complications are joining the panels' wires on the roof in a small water-sealed box, linking them to a waterproof conduit/wire which runs down the side of the house and is anchored to the house, and eventually drilling through the house for that wire, and sealing that hole with a special compound. Again, this isn't a task for the weekend warrior :)
    Feb 2, 2014. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: A Review Of Kaveri [View article]
    Dang! Thanks for these awesome explanations, very cool contribution. I'm pseudo-techy but certainly not at this grade of fundamental understanding. I get the diff's between DDR3 and the higher ratings now, is this caused by the bus width? Pretty scrambled freq on the 2nd.

    I see why you're emphasizing getting the most out of the architecture then, if 65W is the target. And, I'm glad AMD set this target, and knows to design to this, as opposed to GloFo setting the target there, and them adapting late.

    Can't AMD/GloFo still make a higher-clock package in the next release? Basically, I remember the 1050 GFlop target, and they then hit 850. I assume this means they need a more aggressive clock, and could get it with the tweaks at 28nm? Not that this would be HUGELY different.. does it implicitly mean it would just be a point on the voltage curve you shared? But perhaps the difference might make the GPU clocks etc be a lil more aggressive, and tip this chip from "solid" to "reaallly impressive". I feel like Kaveri is near-greatness.. making an almost whimsical, all in one casual gaming rig possible. If I figure out the OC's in advance, I'll buy one and crossfire it with an $89 GPU lol.

    Also, I wonder if they would enable GDDR5 on any Kaveri.. the APU has been shown to be ram-limited, and with a lot of overhead gains to be had. More "low hanging fruit" of a sort. Isn't this one of the times where overclocking memory (2700 OC to 3200 for example) is worthwhile?

    Anyway I understand your outlook on the architectures more. Now that they DO have a pretty big breakthrough in hUMA though, perhaps their next iteration can focus more on these changes. And, their Beema architecture seems kinda like what you prefer, right? It has the GCN, hUMA, potentially GDDR5 compatibility (who knows) instruction sets (?) and puma cores.. so you're excited for this? :) I think it seems pretty sweet. "Gaming tablet" lol.

    The stock has definitely become cheap again, looks good on the hourly chart, and I got in again at 3.46. Made it my avatar lol
    Jan 31, 2014. 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq? [View article]
    absolutely agree that "overwhelmed" is the word. It's a lot of parts. I do construction etc and yea it's actually damn easy. But not without a good bit of knowledge of voltage/current, wiring in series vs parallel, and once it's all hooked up and on the roof, you have to wire it into the charge regulator.. thing (technical term escapes me now ;) then THAT goes to the fuse box. That's the really scary part, if the rest wasn't enough.

    But there's also system optimization. There's this special tracking eye-optical-thing which determines the correct angles of the panels to the sun (for flat roof/city installation), and there are large chunks of aluminum to cut to make that possible (in some varieties). The large aluminum racks are definitely a sneaky complication of the install process as well, because it turns out aluminum is much more difficult and dangerous to cut than steel with a power grinder. Most people don't even know that, even if they have cut some steel before. Finally, to put this sharp-edged custom-cut aluminum rack on the roof, you have to put holes in the roof. I repeat, holes in the roof, and that makes people uncomfortable. Even then you have to pick the correct hardware for the wind rating. Because you certainly don't want the system sliding off/blowing over.

    The point of all this is, I think there's more that goes into it than people realize. I've been in the trades for a while and I find it no big deal, but I also understand all of the above. Even an engineer could understand all the above, but he might injure himself pretty badly cutting the aluminum, or mis-drill a hole, etc.

    So, the ease of access of going to the SCTY desk at HD and signing a few papers is really valuable, IMO. Knowing people are properly trained to do the install is probably pretty important to homeowners, and having a one stop shop for financing at the same time seals the deal completely.

    Because of the emphasis on very particular training and connections with big box retail, SCTY can definitely expand well to other countries on the same premise.
    Jan 31, 2014. 03:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Did You Get Fooled Again? [View article]
    wow great! Wondering where the other 8 cores are though... Where will these be fabbed also?

    Jaguar cores are "dual process 28nm"... Anything to cut through the GloFo supply is bullish to me!
    Jan 31, 2014. 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: A Review Of Kaveri [View article]
    @DigiHound Wow that's a thorough and interesting perspective!! Thanks for that.
    I can tell with releases like the the 9370, AMD is definitely pushing clock speeds to highlight their strengths and I believe that they did commit to a GHz race early, as you point out. Are you sure though that the 512bit width won't cater more towards the GHz race? How about if this instruction set is in conjunction with 20nm (fiiinally), does this not make the chip more what it was intended to be? It does seem AMD was led on by their chip fabs, and produced their classic slides based on say TSM's slides promising certain characteristics, which obviously we're still waiting on. However, even Anand (I think..) made a memorable quote about how it was impressive what AMD was able to do by attacking the "low hanging fruit".
    Another thing we're all unclear on (well, maybe you less so :) is we just don't know what GloFo is actually going to produce. NY is throwing tons of money at them, they have tonnes of oil money.. and I think their management seems to be improving operations from what I read about the 32nm disaster. Is the general theme that AMD is stuck with the GloFo supply and an architecture that (for now) isn't well matched with it? Great link on the 8350 comparison btw! Is it possible GloFo's second attempt will improve 10/20%?
    I always thought the above link always best highlighted Kaveri. It might not be an enthusiast chip, but when people figure out how to OC to 3200mhz memory and looking at some of those stats, it seems like it's still a fairly competitive chip but ESPECIALLY at the pricepoint, while still not consuming terrible wattage.
    Does this reflect well on the "APU optimized process"? Even though it has trouble being *warrantied* at the higher clocks, it seems to do well at them?
    And, there have been reports of hybrid crossfire working with R7's and R9's, despite AMD officially saying that wasn't possible? I've read about that.. but haven't found any links.
    @Justin too bad!! honestly, BF4 is a good game and I had a friend asking about the cheapest good gaming PC. Once people can OC memory a bit I'm certain this is the best setup (Kaveri generally). So if you discount the game as if you were paying retail, even A10-7850 is a pretty dang sweet deal :)
    Jan 29, 2014. 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Did You Get Fooled Again? [View article]
    link plz :) I thought seattle was announced?!
    Jan 29, 2014. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Did You Get Fooled Again? [View article]
    we aren't in the same boat sir :) I'm around for that gigantic cup and handle on weekly, and watching the pretty long term 300ma/200ma and 50ma. Ur just day trading Fiberton!! this thing gets wings over $5 :) Have you seen SMCI? Micro/custom servers ring a bell?

    @Ashraf - I wish you would clarify your whimsical statement on servers.. "But what none of them really acknowledge is that Intel is already hard at work securing that space and is shipping very viable product there today with more very aggressive parts in the pipeline." Is this conjecture, or do you know about these products, because I'm very curious to know what they are from a research perspective, and haven't heard much.
    Jan 29, 2014. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq? [View article]
    fear of climbing on rooves, fear of electrocution. To name 2

    or is it roofs? roofs.
    Jan 29, 2014. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq? [View article]
    yeah I have a 200 PT. Egregious pricing should correspond well to a GIGANTIC, incredible natgas breakout.. that for now, people seem to believe is weather related. Did they forget data centers may use 10% **or more** of the nations power consumption, data is a primary export, and that coal is being phased out? Ask Obama. If it warms up, and UNG is still running, believe that SCTY can react pretty vigorously.
    Plus, I'm not convinced retail understands SCTY properly. Do they own and then lease the panels, meaning they can depreciate the entire value over time, while collecting income? @CDM capital, are there tax advantages you may not have considered here? Have you considered SCTY holds a HUGE number of renewable energy tax credits and can have primary control of a new and open market for green energy credits to large businesses for things like LEED certification? Businesses regularly buy these, even just to appear active in the global community.
    Next, we are looking at THE primary solar installer for homes and large businesses, as well as the installer of TSLA supercharger stations. Large businesses will scale into solar quickly if UNG can continue. TSLA has a longterm growth market potential, if supercharger stations become even 1/4 as prevalent as gas stations. SCTY is perfectly positioned with their Home Depot partnership for the easiest way for people to "contribute" to the planets safety and save themselves money. Bigtime investment banks have pretty impressive targets for SCTY's fundamental growth for by 2018. Investors are trusting those banks opinions here, and I don't think we've seen the end of the upgrades.
    Finally, look at NFLX and TSLA, the leading stocks on the Nasdaq. The Dow fell 175, and NFLX rose 15%. The Dow fell 320, and NFLX fell .6%. Now the Dow has risen 90 pts today, and NFLX is up 7% to all time highs. The fact is tech is commanding a higher valuation and SCTY has a unique position in multiple focal areas including HD's solar vendor, TSLA's station installer, energy credit dominance, and the way to fight higher energy costs of UNG for home and especially large companies.
    Jan 28, 2014. 11:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: A Review Of Kaveri [View article]
    @Digihound, thanks very much for high-level analysis. I understand Jaguar is good, and Puma looks to be better, but lets not forget Mr. Keller will be maximizing Excavator's potential. I think it's too early to declare the entire linege "DoA" when we're already seeing good performance increases from SR, and presumably, the best is yet to come. I don't see why, if AMD already has proven they CAN make a good "plain" x86 core like Jaguar/Puma, they have to cancel their more potent x86 architecture. Doesn't it have potential remaining? I do understand the fabrication limitations, the "APU optimized 28nm SHP", but I'm sure the designs have already shifted in that direction. Papermaster is probably an improvement in that regard. Basically, while I understand your take on making a "light" x86 proc, I'm not convinced a more potent design team can't make a pretty potent excavator to match.

    @Justin, thanks for the review! My question is, where the hell do you buy an A8 7600?? I can't find it anywhere..

    Also can you elaborate on the "real" potential of hybrid crossfire? I couldn't find the video of the 290x in this setup with trinity.. I hear there are more compatible cards than just the lower end.. they aren't officially supported.. it's all kind of confusing really :) The one thing I understand is that Kaveri needs OC'd memory, and that's kind of difficult for folks so far! Promising though if it gets figured out!
    Jan 28, 2014. 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons Not To Sell 3D Systems [View article]
    Shims are a good idea. Of course I can use just actual shims, and chisel them to shape. So we're not quite there yet. I do renovations/etc and I'm waiting to be convinced of a need...

    Lets not forget concrete, GFRC, fiberglass, wood, expandable foam, gorilla glue, etc are all cheaper and mostly stronger for basic needs... ie.. plastic lawn cart nuts (fiberglass/gorilla glue). Not edible though! ;)
    Jan 28, 2014. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Did You Get Fooled Again? [View article]
    Yea it's about time you switched your tune Fiberton! You see it today strong as heck, INTC weeaak. nice ROUND bottom in AMD here over 3 days. It never deviated TOO far from my support levels $3.5 to $3.6, even under intense volatility +40% 3 days.
    Jan 28, 2014. 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Did You Get Fooled Again? [View article]
    All I can say is that INTC seems MUCH more at risk of secular decline than AMD. Simple points:
    1) AMD is accustomed to cost competing on the low end, INTC is not. This is more relevant now, as I can guarantee a PC is no longer as much of an "investment" as it was in the early 2000's, and is now a "begrudging necessity". For typing, spreadsheets, etc. So cost competition will be MORE important than before as people don't feel like spending as much on PC's generally, in the same way you probably don't spend a great deal of pocket money at office max. Solid gaming will be in AMD's favor in the low end, and can easily make the "chore" of a purchase more intriguing.
    2) x86 complete dependency. It seems secular downtrend may be beginning in x86 server. Correct me if I'm wrong, but have GOOG and FB both been making noise that they'd rather have ARM servers? Are these not preeminent leaders of the tech sector? With such versatile stacks and VM's, x86 server is less necessary. However, it's INCREDIBLY necessary to intel's PROFITS. Said profits are NECESSARY to pay DIVIDENDS. Has anyone noticed INTC is a gigantic laggard on the dow, even losing to boring names like PG and KO from 2011, while paying a bigger dividend than ALL of the dow? Now what if that dividend becomes less certain? It's already a huge laggard! Even AAPL wants to dump INTC, and they seem fairly competent in chip design, producing consistently dominant chip performance. That's interesting, because some of the best AAPL chip designers now work at AMD!
    3) INTC's "process lead" is ... is it a lead, or a liability? Intel only makes intel chips. Therefore, this return on their massive plant investment depends on the success of their chips.. which are hugely exposed to x86 server and PC, which could easily both be in decline. Therefore their process lead is a huge liability.
    4) INTC is diving into mobile with an aggressive trajectory involving SUBSIDIES. Refer to prior statements on dividends. Why in the heck is INTC trying to put x86 on phones? Everyone knows phone chips are lower margin, and that x86 chips are hugely more expensive in design. This means they are spending MORE money in development to make LESS money on the sales, then subsidizing it! Is this a good play when investors clearly stick around ONLY for the big yields?
    5) Ah yes, yields. INTC has been hiding behind its process lead for a long time. Now they're having yield issues and CLOSING PLANTS. Delays are not the norm for INTC, and now competitors are closing the gap. Lets face it, 28nm is already some very good tech. So the shrink-race is less of an advantage, because 28nm is already so good.

    Ashraf, you state: "But what none of them really acknowledge is that Intel is already hard at work securing that space and is shipping very viable product there today with more very aggressive parts in the pipeline."
    It's unclear if this is assumption, and perhaps you can elaborate more on INTC's plans for the next gen of server technology. So if you could extrapolate this statement to be more substantive it would be much appreciated :)
    Jan 27, 2014. 11:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment