DutchMark's Comments

Portfolio Recovery Associates: Apropo of Bailouts

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 03:40:41 -0400

You'll always have bad experiences from collecting agencies, some valid some not. It's a sensitive subject for many people.

Boeing: Ready for Take-off

Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:59:47 -0400

I'm bullish on BA too, but when you say

"However, this stock buy back is 14% of the outstanding shares at this valuation."

I'd recommend taking off those rose-colored glasses. Did they buy back 14% of shares? No. So why make it look like that? They could have, maybe, possibly, had they timed the bottom of the recent slide of the stock. But in fact the number of average diluted shares is down only 4% YoY.

Mark

Apple Investors Were Pinned on Friday

Sun, 20 Jul 2008 13:11:48 -0400

Why is the 'rest of us dragged along and sucked dry of our money'? Only happens if you belong to the group that sells when it went down and buys again after it went back up.

Just hold on to your shares and you'll be fine. Cheer as the stock drops lower, until it reaches a point where you gladly buy more. And cheer again when earnings show another good gain over last year.

Or in kindergarten terms, if you feel the big boys are playing with you, take your ball and go home.

Chesapeake Energy: Truckin', Like the Do-Dah Man

Wed, 09 Jul 2008 08:40:25 -0400

If you're seeing your gains evaporate you can't have been shareholder for very long. Most likely you jumped on the energy bandwagon after it had already gone up a lot. And then of course it had to go down.

Dilution is always something to watch out for. But what counts in the end is what's the ROI on the money they raise. So far it's been staggering and as long as McClendon can keep it up I don't mind him being busy making more deals.

I hope it goes a lot lower because I don't have anywhere near 27,000 shares and I'd like an excuse to buy more.

iPhone Can Replace Laptops for Majority of Computer Users

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 08:30:17 -0400

First of all, the iPhone doesn't cost $199. It's actually more like $599 that includes a phone and data-plan.

I do agree that a lot of Google searches of YouTube can and will be done by iPhone. But for general internet use to be a replacement for a laptop the screen is too small.

I'm waiting for a tablet-PC annex book-reader that is basically an iPhone in a Legal Letter size format. Then we're talking.

Will Apple's Second Generation iPhone Buck the Trend?

Thu, 12 Jun 2008 15:59:28 -0400

Have you looked at the iPod 1.0 and iPod 2.0? (And 3.0, 4.0 etc...) Might also be an interesting comparison.

Boeing: Helicopters, Corporate Conduct, and China's Social Contract

Thu, 12 Jun 2008 09:42:27 -0400

Well-balanced article. Thanks for the insights.

'Take Off' with Boeing Option Combination Plays

Thu, 05 Jun 2008 09:13:22 -0400

Your return calculations for the option plays are severely flawed. Selling a put is equivalent to a covered call. Therefore you should consider your cash layout to be more than double of what you used. That means your expected returns are also less than half of the ones you calculated. No wonder those scenarios look so promising.

Selling puts is not free money with no downside risk, as is implicated by your article.

10 Highest Yielding Semi-Annual Dividend Payers

Tue, 20 May 2008 14:36:41 -0400

You forgot CSE, it pays a damn fine dividend every 6 months. And then again 3 months later :)

And one of my favourites that really pays twice a year: PAC. Very cheap recently.

Time for Portfolio Spring Cleaning

Thu, 15 May 2008 16:02:08 -0400

Wow, I can hardly imagine worse advice. Earlier in the year was the time to tune, now is the time to let them run.

Chesapeake Energy Appears Very Well Positioned

Tue, 06 May 2008 16:34:39 -0400

Although a good overview in itself, it contains a few annoying errors. EBITDA for 2008 will not be $57B. (I wish!) Maybe you missed a decimal point in there somewhere? Also, the statement that proven reserves are three times the size of unproven reserves seems to have things backwards.

Apple's iPhone SDK: This is Brand New Big Sh*t, But

Fri, 07 Mar 2008 08:11:32 -0500

I was all set to go ahead and move my game to the iPhone / iPod Touch. But what I was afraid of came true, can only sell through Apple. But my game is only for the Asian market and alas, no iTunes store for China, Japan or Korea yet.

So Apple can stuff it.

Over-Hyped Apple Has No Real Value

Tue, 16 Oct 2007 11:13:17 -0400

>>Make sure you differentiate market share growth from total top-line revenue growth, too often I feel people make those two synonymous when talking about AAPL.
If you pull up last year's 10-K, you'll see that Mac revenues (that's both laptops and desktops) came to 38% of total sales... if Apple doubles the market share Mac has, it will grow revenues by about 40%, not 100%.<<

Yes, the math is correct. But PC unit sales are growing 12% world-wide annually. Apple is growing unit sales three times that fast. Maybe it was 38% of total sales last year, but I believe it's already 50% or more today. So we'd expect to see 18% total growth just based on Mac sales for three to four years to double market-share. Growth of all the other components, (iPod, iPhone etc.) together must stay in the single digits to come in as low as 22.6%.

But maybe you don't see Apple doubling its market-share in 3 years? I do but admit it's a bit speculative. But a single-digit growth number of the rest of Apple's business is very, very low. And in 3-5 years I'd just as easily see Apple's market-share quadruple if Microsoft doesn't fix Vista's problems fast.

Your 34% growth for this quarter is exactly in line with what analysts are expecting. Look here: earnings.com/company.a...
and note that analysts haven't exactly been able to nail those estimates for the past years.

Over-Hyped Apple Has No Real Value

Tue, 16 Oct 2007 11:12:30 -0400

Over-Hyped Apple Has No Real Value

Mon, 15 Oct 2007 08:48:32 -0400

I think the title is misleading. You could fairly argue that Apple is overvalued right now (although IMO only a little) but that's a far cry from 'no value'.

And to state that the iPod is Apple's only successful product in 25 years is laughable. The concept of the original 1984 Mac is still alive and strong today. The first iMac revamped the company (not the iPod) and currently MacBooks are selling like hot-cakes. The Mac computers are still its core business, not the iPod or iPhone or iTunes. If you think Apple is only about the iPod you have no business investing in them indeed.

Watch the Mac OS gain market-share over Windows, look at the tiny market-share it has now and the potential must be obvious.

Mark