DutchMark

Apple Investors Were Pinned on Friday

Why is the 'rest of us dragged along and sucked dry of our money'? Only happens if you belong to the group that sells when it went down and buys again after it went back up.

Just hold on to your shares and you'll be fine. Cheer as the stock drops lower, until it reaches a point where you gladly buy more. And cheer again when earnings show another good gain over last year.

Or in kindergarten terms, if you feel the big boys are playing with you, take your ball and go home.

iPhone Can Replace Laptops for Majority of Computer Users

First of all, the iPhone doesn't cost $199. It's actually more like $599 that includes a phone and data-plan.

I do agree that a lot of Google searches of YouTube can and will be done by iPhone. But for general internet use to be a replacement for a laptop the screen is too small.

I'm waiting for a tablet-PC annex book-reader that is basically an iPhone in a Legal Letter size format. Then we're talking.

Will Apple's Second Generation iPhone Buck the Trend?

Have you looked at the iPod 1.0 and iPod 2.0? (And 3.0, 4.0 etc...) Might also be an interesting comparison.

Apple's iPhone SDK: This is Brand New Big Sh*t, But

I was all set to go ahead and move my game to the iPhone / iPod Touch. But what I was afraid of came true, can only sell through Apple. But my game is only for the Asian market and alas, no iTunes store for China, Japan or Korea yet.

So Apple can stuff it.

Over-Hyped Apple Has No Real Value

>>Make sure you differentiate market share growth from total top-line revenue growth, too often I feel people make those two synonymous when talking about AAPL.
If you pull up last year's 10-K, you'll see that Mac revenues (that's both laptops and desktops) came to 38% of total sales... if Apple doubles the market share Mac has, it will grow revenues by about 40%, not 100%.<<

Yes, the math is correct. But PC unit sales are growing 12% world-wide annually. Apple is growing unit sales three times that fast. Maybe it was 38% of total sales last year, but I believe it's already 50% or more today. So we'd expect to see 18% total growth just based on Mac sales for three to four years to double market-share. Growth of all the other components, (iPod, iPhone etc.) together must stay in the single digits to come in as low as 22.6%.

But maybe you don't see Apple doubling its market-share in 3 years? I do but admit it's a bit speculative. But a single-digit growth number of the rest of Apple's business is very, very low. And in 3-5 years I'd just as easily see Apple's market-share quadruple if Microsoft doesn't fix Vista's problems fast.

Your 34% growth for this quarter is exactly in line with what analysts are expecting. Look here: earnings.com/company.a...
and note that analysts haven't exactly been able to nail those estimates for the past years.

Over-Hyped Apple Has No Real Value

>>Make sure you differentiate market share growth from total top-line revenue growth, too often I feel people make those two synonymous when talking about AAPL.
If you pull up last year's 10-K, you'll see that Mac revenues (that's both laptops and desktops) came to 38% of total sales... if Apple doubles the market share Mac has, it will grow revenues by about 40%, not 100%.<<

Yes, the math is correct. But PC unit sales are growing 12% world-wide annually. Apple is growing unit sales three times that fast. Maybe it was 38% of total sales last year, but I believe it's already 50% or more today. So we'd expect to see 18% total growth just based on Mac sales for three to four years to double market-share. Growth of all the other components, (iPod, iPhone etc.) together must stay in the single digits to come in as low as 22.6%.

But maybe you don't see Apple doubling its market-share in 3 years? I do but admit it's a bit speculative. But a single-digit growth number of the rest of Apple's business is very, very low. And in 3-5 years I'd just as easily see Apple's market-share quadruple if Microsoft doesn't fix Vista's problems fast.

Your 34% growth for this quarter is exactly in line with what analysts are expecting. Look here: earnings.com/company.a...
and note that analysts haven't exactly been able to nail those estimates for the past years.

Over-Hyped Apple Has No Real Value

I think the title is misleading. You could fairly argue that Apple is overvalued right now (although IMO only a little) but that's a far cry from 'no value'.

And to state that the iPod is Apple's only successful product in 25 years is laughable. The concept of the original 1984 Mac is still alive and strong today. The first iMac revamped the company (not the iPod) and currently MacBooks are selling like hot-cakes. The Mac computers are still its core business, not the iPod or iPhone or iTunes. If you think Apple is only about the iPod you have no business investing in them indeed.

Watch the Mac OS gain market-share over Windows, look at the tiny market-share it has now and the potential must be obvious.

Mark