selene's Comments

Unscrambling Organic Eggs: Will Whole Foods Lose Wild Oats?

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 12:57:05 -0500

While I agree Wild Oats wasn't needed in the market, I don't agree that TJ's really competes head to head with WFMI. Don't get me wrong, I love TJ's, but I doubt anyone makes it their only grocery store. TJ's business model is that everything, even produce, has to be a SKU, not by weight, which means no butcher or fishmonger, their produce is pre-packaged and can't be as good as at most other stores, and they can't offer bulk staples or spices. Also WFMI is at least moving in the direction of stocking more local produce and meats, TJ can't do this for unclear reasons related to the same standardization that gives rise to the SKU's policy. Finally, hardly anything at TJ's costs anywhere near what it does at WFMI, with possible exception of high-end cheese and wine.

The David Lereah Saga: Now Even More Pathetic

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 12:13:37 -0500

I think it's fine. Obviously he managed to live at a silly level of extravagance for years without much mental exertion. Many people would probably love to know how to do this. If he can sell them a newsletter, bully for him.

There was a time when I would have said that he should have given the interview to USA Today or something, not WSJ. But lately I'm thinking WSJ is as good a way to reach that target market as anything.

From TARP to ARRP

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 10:58:05 -0500

Matey, leave off the "Plan" part and add "Reinvigoration," so we can just call it ARRR!

Why Consultants and Researchers Should Replace Sell-Side Analysts

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 10:53:54 -0500

Given six months, the recommendations of these "consultants" wouldn't be any better than those of the sell-side analysts. The issues that make sell-side research not more useful than it is are structural and would still afflict whoever was doing the research. It's not as though these "consultants" are drawn from a completely different pool of smart/educated types, either.

'Good to Great' Stocks: Where Are They Now?

Mon, 08 Dec 2008 10:16:35 -0500

I can't say whether or not he is a dope about the put strategy. But he is SPOT ON about that dumb book. The most ironic thing in it is the "Stockdale Syndrome," where like Stockdale in the POW camp, those who face bad situations realistically survive. Great concept but AFAIK universally non-implemented by every organization I know that was big on this book.

Infrastructure Spending Spree Risks More Bridges to Nowhere

Thu, 20 Nov 2008 10:05:46 -0500

AFAIK there is, in fact, a lot of planning, but it happens at the local and state level, not the federal level. Which is how it should be.

People who are moaning about "pork" would do well to ask themselves how we got an interstate highway system.

For $15 Million, Gazprom Media Is Now the Proud Owner of Russia's YouTube

Thu, 20 Nov 2008 09:42:11 -0500

Since Gazprom is such an 8 bazillion pound gorilla, and so politically well connected, why did it take them a whole year to purchase a $15 million company?

Financial Meltdown: The Conventional Wisdom

Thu, 06 Nov 2008 09:21:36 -0500

I was a comp lit major in undergrad and read a lot of Derrida in the original during the heyday of deconstructionism (the school of which Derrida was a doyen -- related to but not identical to postmodernism).

This is without doubt the silliest, most poorly thought out attempt to apply his theories I have ever seen, including everything my friends and I wrote in undergrad. Yikes!

Mythical Creatures: Unicorns and Libor

Wed, 15 Oct 2008 12:39:40 -0400

Mr. Mairs, I'd be interested to know the methodology, if it's not what Erik Salzman posted. Is it posted somewhere, maybe on BBA web site?

Which Candidate Will Get to Spend the $700 Billion?

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 09:58:03 -0400

Well-written, and certainly food for thought.

A quibble: I'm not convinced, Mr. Hutchinson, that a person of your evident intelligence and thoughtfulness really thinks that what is meant by "deregulation" is so "mysterious." You seem to understand "re-regulating everything" just fine by the end of your piece!

Maybe what's needed is not so much going back to the old regulatory framework pre-1999 as a new framework that will be flexible enough for today's markets but make it tough for bad actors to get away with gaming the system, or for compensation structures to reward actions that bring short-term personal reward out of proportion to the long-term risks, such as happened with mortgage securitization.

The Debate: McCain's Insane Mortgage Proposal

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 09:44:00 -0400

Let's try to remember that no one is suggesting anything as simplistic as raising taxes across the board, or cutting them across the board. Obama wants to cut taxes on everyone making under $200K and raise them on everyone above $250K, broadly speaking. Since current tax policies have disproportionately benefited the top 2% of Americans by income, something like this shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.

After last night's performance I don't think it matters what McCain wants to do.

Why the Bailout Cannot Solve a Thing: Nobody Is Blaming the Right Culprit

Fri, 03 Oct 2008 11:17:29 -0400

Oh please. I have just about had it with people blaming the financial crisis on too many black people getting mortgages. I know I can't stop you from doing it, so I will just vent -- AAAAAAAAAAAAARGH! At least our international readers will see that not all Americans are ignorant in this way.

The Biden-Palin Panderfest

Fri, 03 Oct 2008 11:07:58 -0400

Why does anyone care what memorized, regurgitated, disconnected talking points Palin came up with? It's obvious she has pretty much no understanding of economics or the financial crisis. And today the McCain camp is running around trying to explain away the fact that she said they agree with the proposed bankruptcy workout provisions, when in actuality McCain opposes them. She made this silly mistake because she has no understanding of what she is talking about,

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Mon, 29 Sep 2008 12:02:04 -0400

Billgls, you are confused. Not only is Franklin Raines not connected to the Obama campaign (this has been debunked for days if not weeks), but McCain's campaign manager was on Fannie's payroll just to provide access to McCain. The only reason anyone connected Raines to Obama is because they are both African-American.

From Newsweek:

Never mind the fact that Raines never actually advised Obama on anything. The real problem here is that McCain's campaign is swarming with 26 advisers or fundraisers who have lobbied for Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac--including nearly a dozen who lobby right now. As the Washington Monthly's Steve Benen wrote last week, "one of McCain's top policy advisers, Charlie Black, was lobbyist for Freddie Mac for 10 years, while his campaign manager, Rick Davis, lobbied to help Fannie and Freddie steer clear of additional federal regulations [and earned $2 million in the process]... Tom Loeffler, who serves McCain's campaign co-chairman, also lobbied for Fannie Mae. Aquiles Suarez, a McCain economic adviser, was a Fannie Mae executive. Dan Crippen, a McCain adviser who helped craft the campaign's health-care policy, lobbied for Fannie Mae (and Merrill Lynch). Arthur B. Culvahouse, who helped lead McCain's VP search committee, also lobbied for Fannie Mae." According to former Fannie Mae executive William Maloni, "photographs of Sen. McCain's staff... loo[k] to me like the team of lobbyists who used to report to me." Without these ties--which are far more extensive than Obama's--McCain would have every right to say that associating with officials from troubled financial institutions is a sign of bad judgment. Again, it's not like Obama's hands are spotless. But with them, McCain offers Obama an otherwise unavailable opportunity to remind voters that McCain's own judgment--at least by McCain's own standards--is worse. So much for "no seat... at the table."

www.blog.newsweek.com/...

Predictions on Imclone's Suitors

Mon, 29 Sep 2008 10:00:57 -0400

Jeez. Is it not possible to disagree with Derek without calling him "incompetent" as well? What are your credentials?

Answers for David Cay Johnston on the Bailout Plan

Wed, 24 Sep 2008 10:23:08 -0400

Thank you Felix. Like many people I really admire Johnston's Perfectly Legal and was hugely confused and dismayed by his piece yesterday. Being skeptical is a good thing and a normal response, given some of the history of recent years. However, evidence shows that credit is indeed drying up, even if somewhere in Mudville a blinky ad for mortgages still dances.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Wed, 24 Sep 2008 10:08:53 -0400

"John McCain's campaign manager and Freddie Mac essentially had what amounts to a secret half a million dollar lay-a-way plan. For almost three years and as late as last month, Freddie Mac made secret, monthly payments of $15,000 to Rick Davis's firm, apparently in exchange for providing special access to a future McCain White House. If McCain knew about this, his presidential campaign should be in serious trouble. If he didn't know about it, he ought to fire Rick Davis immediately," said David Donnelly, Director of Campaign Money Watch.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Wed, 24 Sep 2008 10:01:35 -0400

Uh, Dick Morris is an authority now? I'd be insane to believe that.

Russian Oil Is Worth the Risk

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 09:14:54 -0400

Unclear that it was "the U.S." who overpromised to Georgia. More likely it was John McCain's chief foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann. He's been a paid lobbyist for Georgia in the U.S. for over 3 years.

But whoever it was, there's always the issue with any Russian equity of ownership risk. This is particularly a concern with natural resources. We know there's value in there, but we don't know that that value will go to shareholders and not to (a) the government, whether through expropriation or punitive taxes or (b) cronies somewhere.

Has the Economy Killed the Health Food Craze?

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 09:34:50 -0400

Disagree STRONGLY with the implication that you have to shop at WFMI to get healthy food.

ImClone and the Mystery Bidder

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 10:06:02 -0400

Icahn is the chairman of IMCL board. If he goes out in front of shareholders and completely makes stuff up, they can sue him.

ImClone's Icahn Is Holding a Pistol to Bristol

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 10:01:59 -0400

Since Icahn's an insider and the chair of IMCL board, I think he could be in deep doo-doo if he is completely making this stuff up.

5 Stocks to Buy if Obama Wins

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 09:55:34 -0400

GDP and personal income also rose under Clinton. Tech bubble doesn't affect those metrics.

Also, consistently since 1900 stock market does better under Democratic presidents. Even when you correct for the effect of which bunch controls Congress. This has been extensively written up and could easily be Googled.

Rackspace Hosting, Inc. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 09:25:37 -0400

I love the free transcripts. I understand that the people who create them are not usually native speakers of English. It's possible that Mr. Pichler is not the clearest speaker ever, I didn't listen so don't know. But this really is the most garbled transcript I've read on SA.

My favorite quote: "We conservatives are longer and require larger upfront investments." Personally I think people should leave their political views out of earnings calls.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 09:47:56 -0400

Wait, are you saying you don't know who The Band was? Oh man, get thee to the Google! :-)

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 09:47:07 -0400

The song is called "The Weight." The band is called "The Band." What's the controversy? I thought everyone over 40 knew this.

Is McCain's Tax Plan Really Any Different From Current Policy?

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 09:40:30 -0400

BTW unless that audience consisted of people earning over $250K per year, McCain's statement that "Obama will raise your taxes" is untrue.

Time to Rethink Our View of Private Health Insurers?

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 10:50:38 -0400

"Employers were supplementing the high deductable plans with employer funded health savings accounts, making the deductables irrelevant from the employees’ perspective."

A clarification, from someone who actually is on this kind of health plan. What happens is that the employee has the option to direct some portion of their pay into the tax-free Health Savings Account (HSA). This account is "funded by the employer" only in the sense that the employee's salary is funded by the employer. For all practical purposes, the employee is paying into it.

Then the employee can use HSA to pay for healthcare expenses not covered by your insurance, such as co-pays and deductible. However, even with the bump-up for the HSA being tax-free, it comes down to a cost being shifted from insurer to insured employee. The employee does NOT perceive the costs as irrelevant!

What's more, in every one of these I've participated in, HSA is "use it or lose it" each year. If at the end of the year you've been healthy and haven't spent your whole HSA, you just lose whatever chunk of your salary you directed to the HSA! Obvious incentive to underfund your HSA (even with the tax effect) from what you think you will spend, especially if you're in good health.

Someone with a high deductible would probably consider putting less than the deductible into the HSA and just hoping for the best.

I've never understood who this goofy system was supposed to benefit, except whoever is administering it (usually company HR dept) and whoever keeps any unused balance in HSA (I guess that's the employer too?)

Sarah Palin: Wall Street's Candidate

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 09:54:55 -0400

What a great parody! Didn't know this was also a humor site.

Pepsi Goes Russki: How Will Deal Affect Earnings?

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 14:12:13 -0400

Pepsi is one of the longest-established-in... Western companies. During the 1970's they had an agreement under which Pepsi was distributed in Russia and had exclusive rights to import and distribute Stolichnaya in the U.S. It is hardly just this week "going Ruskie" as you so charmingly put it.