Daniel Houston's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/11382/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/31596-drop-in-factory-orders-may-be-telling-us-something?source=feed#comment-83680 83680 tickersense.typepad.co...) instead of YOY SP%, you'll get a tighter and clearer fit between the two variables. that said, factory orders (and durable goods orders, if you prefer the substitute) seem to be saying YOY Q1 SP earnings growth will come in 0 to negative.]]> Thu, 05 Apr 2007 04:21:44 -0400 tickersense.typepad.co...) instead of YOY SP%, you'll get a tighter and clearer fit between the two variables. that said, factory orders (and durable goods orders, if you prefer the substitute) seem to be saying YOY Q1 SP earnings growth will come in 0 to negative.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/25881-income-savings-at-lowest-level-since-depression?source=feed#comment-80995 80995 Sat, 03 Feb 2007 12:41:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/22059-is-someone-manipulating-this-rally?source=feed#comment-78848 78848 Sun, 10 Dec 2006 23:26:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/20467-will-housing-bring-down-the-economy?source=feed#comment-75469 75469 Sun, 19 Nov 2006 01:17:44 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/20577-no-reason-rally-likely-to-unwind?source=feed#comment-75138 75138
My mother uses that one when she wants to justify something she can't come up with a reason for justifying.]]> Thu, 16 Nov 2006 21:55:23 -0500
My mother uses that one when she wants to justify something she can't come up with a reason for justifying.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/19774-move-inc-attacks-house-prices-site-zillow-com?source=feed#comment-73249 73249 Sun, 05 Nov 2006 03:27:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/19543-housing-sector-recession-will-last-a-while-won-t-cause-full-blown-recession?source=feed#comment-72776 72776
welcome to recessionville.

shorting any time the market hit a 52 week high and holding for 3 months with a spread inversion that large made a profit 23 out of 23 times. data only comes from 3 economic cycles though.]]> Wed, 01 Nov 2006 03:12:57 -0500
welcome to recessionville.

shorting any time the market hit a 52 week high and holding for 3 months with a spread inversion that large made a profit 23 out of 23 times. data only comes from 3 economic cycles though.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/19095-inverted-yield-curve-understanding-its-implications?source=feed#comment-72775 72775
Um, what are you talking about???]]> Wed, 01 Nov 2006 03:02:28 -0500
Um, what are you talking about???]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/17634-bulls-and-bubbles-are-not-synonymous?source=feed#comment-67656 67656 Sun, 01 Oct 2006 21:56:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/17634-bulls-and-bubbles-are-not-synonymous?source=feed#comment-67591 67591 Sun, 01 Oct 2006 12:59:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/17172-housing-weakness-poses-a-significant-threat-to-gdp-and-stocks?source=feed#comment-65741 65741
Who cares about the value of the estates? It's the value of homeowner's equity that matters, my friend - and this figure has already gone to zero for many a buyer in 2005 and early 2006 (perhaps most buyers, in fact because down payments on housing have been so tiny recently). So a huge number of investors in the proverbial dot-condos have in fact lost their virtual wealth, same as the investors in dotcom stocks before them. Their investment has gone to pot.


I wrote this on another blog and it may clarify things:

"For one, a fallout from a housing speculation bust is not the same animal as the fallout from the dotcom speculation bust. The difference is debt. It looms around for consumers after a housing bust, but not after a stock bust. Yes there were margin calls when the Nasdaq crashed - but for most individuals, even those aggressively invested in technology shares - their financial obligations did not persist beyond the original capital they invested. Their 401k's and IRAs may get hammered, but that's about it. This is not true of the money that has recently flowed into housing. "


Additionally the comment, "as prices drop, there will be buyers" doesn't truly support your argument because it lacks a timeframe. Yes at some point there will be buyers, but when? If they don't come in before a hard landing then it's tough luck. And there are plenty of instances in plenty of markets that say at times buyers don't return quickly enough.]]> Sat, 23 Sep 2006 04:04:05 -0400
Who cares about the value of the estates? It's the value of homeowner's equity that matters, my friend - and this figure has already gone to zero for many a buyer in 2005 and early 2006 (perhaps most buyers, in fact because down payments on housing have been so tiny recently). So a huge number of investors in the proverbial dot-condos have in fact lost their virtual wealth, same as the investors in dotcom stocks before them. Their investment has gone to pot.


I wrote this on another blog and it may clarify things:

"For one, a fallout from a housing speculation bust is not the same animal as the fallout from the dotcom speculation bust. The difference is debt. It looms around for consumers after a housing bust, but not after a stock bust. Yes there were margin calls when the Nasdaq crashed - but for most individuals, even those aggressively invested in technology shares - their financial obligations did not persist beyond the original capital they invested. Their 401k's and IRAs may get hammered, but that's about it. This is not true of the money that has recently flowed into housing. "


Additionally the comment, "as prices drop, there will be buyers" doesn't truly support your argument because it lacks a timeframe. Yes at some point there will be buyers, but when? If they don't come in before a hard landing then it's tough luck. And there are plenty of instances in plenty of markets that say at times buyers don't return quickly enough.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/17172-housing-weakness-poses-a-significant-threat-to-gdp-and-stocks?source=feed#comment-65236 65236 Thu, 21 Sep 2006 01:21:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/16827-get-your-rally-shoes-on-because-this-rally-s-got-legs?source=feed#comment-64064 64064 Fri, 15 Sep 2006 16:48:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/16893-company-guidance-close-to-the-high-end-of-its-historical-range?source=feed#comment-63949 63949 Fri, 15 Sep 2006 03:15:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/16827-get-your-rally-shoes-on-because-this-rally-s-got-legs?source=feed#comment-63947 63947
your citing of all these economic variables seems meaningless unless you can show that each variable has, in the past, actually given managers an edge from which to build a trading strategy.]]> Fri, 15 Sep 2006 03:09:49 -0400
your citing of all these economic variables seems meaningless unless you can show that each variable has, in the past, actually given managers an edge from which to build a trading strategy.]]>