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    • Mon Oct 15th 13:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Over-Hyped Apple Has No Real Value
      Declaration: I own Apple stock, and have been in a good mood about it for a long as it saved my bacon after 2000.

      Stock value is about what people think of future growth. Obviously some, such James, take a few well know headline cases, and ignore the rest of the evidence, as such. The question is whether the rest of the show is worth the 18% difference he finds, assuming his analysis is basically correct.

      Apple has done nothing but grow phenomenally in all its product areas since 2000. It has anticipated important markets better than its competitors, and produced vertical tools to deal with these far better. Most of its competitors seem to feel it is enough to have a solution ... Apple seems to be the only major player that searchers for the 'right' solution - right being defined as something that users can start based on their understanding, with tools that help them learn more about a task area without massive amounts of training.

      Apple is one of the best placed platforms to benefit from the changes that will be bought about in future infrastructure as the most widely distributed Unix system - Microsoft will be unable to deal with the complexity of future services while they cling to the Windows OS model, which can only just cope with the present comparatively simple paradigms of the past.

      Some notes:

      1) 2-4% represents 100% growth, its actually more like 1.7 circa 1997 to 4.5 now, or 160% growth, with considerable accelleration in the past five years.

      2) Most Apple product launches have been successful (other than the period between 1995 and 1998). There are flops, but even these were legendary flops that are still in use today - such as the Cube and the Newton.

      3) In any case there is huge potential for market growth for the macintosh, and apparently some future for the iPhone and repositioning the iPod. Companies will cling to Windows even after they are forced to run it in emulation or as an embedded OS for a variety of reasons. Ordinary people will not.
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