reinharden

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    • Tue Jan 9th 21:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's iPhone Partnership With Cingular Could Drag It Down
      SIP/Skype/VOIP/et al is nice and all but...um...without a service provider providing at least a data layer connection, how do you think the danged thing would work once you're out of range of a WiFi basestation?

      To sell world-wide, Apple had to use GSM. That means they're dealing with Cingular or T-Mobile in the United States. Cingular has 5 times the customer base and a substantially larger network. If you're forced to deal with one, the choice is obvious. Although I can't imagine that T-Mobile was thrilled by the decision.

      reinharden
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    • Tue Jan 9th 21:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ten Thoughts On The iPhone
      > 9. Likely to cannibalize iPod sales.

      Would you say that the $499 and $599 iPhones are cannibalizing the $79 iPod Shuffle, the $149 to $249 iPod nano, or the $249/$349 regular iPod?

      With a $499 and $599 price point, I'd say they fit the product line pretty well and certainly make me want to move further upscale. I'm not overly concerned about cannibalization at this point.

      reinharden
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    • Mon Jan 8th 08:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Steve Jobs Should Resign
      I've heard that there's this thing called "Due Process". Perhaps you should include a definition of it before abusing your bully pulpit by calling for the "as soon as possible" resignation of those people who have been convicted in the court of Christopher Whalen.

      I especially like the way that you've decided that they simultaneously backdated and springloaded their options date. Methinks that perhaps you might want to check those definitions again as well...'cause springloading is picking a date before an event...so if you pick the date after the event has occurred, you've only backdated seeing as how it's no longer before the event.

      Anyway, your article is ridiculous and not really worth the time of my response, so rather walk through it, I'll just say "If we made all business decisions on the basis of shareholder lawsuits, there'd be no companies in the S&P 500. The vast majority of shareholder lawsuits (and class action lawsuits) are simply vehicles to enrich lawyers by attempting to extract settlements."

      reinharden
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    • Sun Jan 7th 09:46 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Conflicting Calls On PC Sector: Sell Dell, Buy Gateway
      Of course, it's fairly likely that unless GWY also had a blowout quarter that by January options expiration (aka after Apple's official earnings announcement), GWY will have dropped to the #4 computer vendor...

      reinharden
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    • Thu Jan 4th 18:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      My Revised Apple 4Q Sales Figures: More Like $8 Billion In Revenue On 23 Million iPod Sales
      Using the marketshare numbers to guess at units:

      06/2006 market-share for Intel Macs: 0.36%
      09/2006 market-share for Intel Macs: 0.84%
      09/2006 quarterly Mac unit sales: 1.6 million
      12/2006 market-share for Intel Macs: 1.52%

      December units =~ (September units / (September share - June share)) * (December share - September share) => 2.26 million

      Way SWAG’d. But interesting. And arguably an understatement...even so, I'm not entirely convinced Apple will hit this number. But I'm pretty convinced they'll definitely come in above estimates.


      Depending upon which set of numbers I use I can easily support 19M to 24M iPods. And I think that these are potentially understated, for the same reasons that you cite, as well.


      And I think if AAPL hit these kinds of volumes, they drove more through to the bottom line.


      One thing that scares me though is how much inventory did they build for this quarter? The Apple Store, for the first time in years, didn't seem to run out of anything. And Amazon got restocked at least a half-dozen times after running out of iPod Shuffles.

      reinharden
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    • Thu Dec 7th 20:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      No Growth In Digital Music Sales?
      I believe in the last conference call Apple claimed that there was some seasonality in the 3rd quarter sales in that there were

      1) comparatively fewer new releases in July/August/September

      2) possibly some impact from school being out for most of the quarter (although over time I personally think that that might go the other way)

      I also don't recall any "must have" music being out this summer. But I'm the wrong person to ask about that. ;-)

      reinharden
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    • Wed Nov 22nd 08:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Incapable Of Buying Google
      Let's see. WMT started 1991 around $7.50 and is currently at $47.81. So, if GOOG does the same *and* is considered a value stock in 15 years (2021), you're saying that GOOG will be trading a touch under $3250?

      I suppose it's possible that GM will restore itself to its former luster...but I don't see a lot of reasons to believe that it'll rebound so strongly that it'll be a six-banger. GM's all-time high was a touch under $94 and frankly I don't see Toyota folding its tent and heading home.

      reinharden

      PS: I'm not convinced that GOOG will necessarily be a six-banger. But I can certainly envision scenarios where that might happen. I can't even *imagine* a realistic scenario where GM *might* have similar performance.
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    • Sun Nov 12th 16:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's $7 Billion Christmas Quarter To Be Paced by iPod Sales
      Hmm...I could have sworn at the time that I was looking at the right quarter, but I apparently mixed and matched from two different quarterly reports. Too many tabs open at the same time. :-(

      But, in this instance, I'm more than happy to be demonstrated wrong.

      reinharden
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    • Sun Nov 12th 11:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's $7 Billion Christmas Quarter To Be Paced by iPod Sales
      To yield 3.3 billion in revenue on 20 million iPod sales, the average sale price has to come in at $165. Last quarter, without the new $79 iPod Shuffle shipping, the ASP looks to have been a touch under $124. Wouldn't you expect the ASP to actually come down rather than bounce up some 33% as you're seemingly forecasting?

      In perhaps an even simpler back of the envelope calculation: last quarter Apple shipped 14 million iPods for $1.74 billion in revenue. At 20 million for $3.3 billion you're almost calling for them to double their revenue on an increase of only 50%.

      I'd be thrilled if Apple achieved those goals...but at last quarter's ASP, they'd have to ship nearly 27 million iPods to do so.

      reinharden
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