34% Huh?

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    • Wed Jan 23rd 12:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      I'm a Buyer of Apple On This Selloff
      "The problem was their forecast for the current quarter."

      Apple does this every time. What you have to look at is revenue. They are guiding 6.8, which is 29% YOY. In all of F2007, the highest "Apple Guided" YOY increase was 18%, and highest actual was 29%. And Apple always beats their guidance. You have to ignore their EPS estimate.

      I think a lot folks are going to look stupid when Apple reports Q2. Look for around $1.20 EPS.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 20th 09:15 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Piper Jaffray Sees Repetition of Apple's Historical Holiday Boom
      Sane_Man...the iPhone is not a flop in Europe. A friend pointed this out to me...

      The reporting on iPhone sales in Europe has been idiotic, at best. It isn't that
      hard to put some facts into perspective but no one seems capable of that sort of reporting anymore. Just take a known quantity like the 8,000 activations, for example. That was 8,000 the first day with only 4 hours of sales. We had only 140,000 activations in the US in 30 hours. Let's do some simple math to put this into perspective.

      If 4 hours of sales resulted in 8,000 activations in the UK, while 30 hours of
      sales in the US resulted in 140,000 activations, then the US had less than 4700 per hour. So, 4 hours would be <18,700. Now, let's look at the population difference between the UK and the US. The UK has 60.8m while the US has 301m so the US is 5x more. 5 x 8,000 = 40,000 vs <20,000 in the US during the same time period.

      Therefore, the UK uptake rate was MORE THAN TWICE THAT OF THE US RATE.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 15th 17:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Over-Hyped Apple Has No Real Value
      I think here's your problem...only 34% growth in the current quarter.

      In my spreadsheet, I have Apple growing their Net Income (YOY) in fiscal year 2007 at 78% in Q1, 88% in Q2, 73% in Q3...why do you think Apple is only going to achieve 34% in the current quarter? Apple has consistently beat the streets estimates, usually by a good amount, for the past few years. So why use the analysts numbers when the haven't even been close in the past?

      We are just at the beginning of the Apple tornado. When all of the iPhone revenue sharing agreements come into play, along with current iPod growth and more importantly, Mac growth...I am estimating 54% growth for fiscal year 2008. And I'm taking the conservative route. I wouldn't be surprised by another 70% to 80%.

      So really, adjust your growth rates by a good 60% to 90%. I think you'll come out far more accurate than depending on the street's lousy estimates, as proven the past few years.
      View article »
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