Stecyk

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    • Mon Sep 22nd 11:01 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Will Continue to Trend Higher
      In response to Fred Banks above, first, thank you for the compliment on the useful article; and second, the reference to Greenspan is directed at the housing bubble. If you read the book and believe Fleckenstein's assertion that Greenspan was largely responsible for the housing bubble by taking rates so low for so long, then it is obvious why he is included. When I mention Greenspan in the article, you'll note that it comes after mentioning the debacle in financial stocks, which are all afflicted by the housing market.
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    • Thu Dec 13th 14:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Murdoch Reinvent The Wall Street Journal?
      Thank you for your comment Emily.
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    • Sun Nov 11th 15:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Blue Nile: A Classic Underpromise, Overdeliver Company
      You're right, ZLC has only $965M market cap today. It was much larger back in March. And nearly double that amount in July 2006.

      With regard to my $2-5 billion, while it is true that Zales value alone won't provide all the value, other jewelry retailers might. According to ZLC's last 10K (July 31), their revenue was $2.4 billion. That would seem to imply, at least to me, that jewelry is a highly fragmented market. So an effective online retail jewelry might sell that amount and much more in a short period. And remember, NILE is serving Europe too, not just North America.

      I can almost see your reply now suggesting that the NILE's growth rates don't seem to support that assertion. After all, NILE, a small upstart, already has anticipated annual revenues of $320 million. My reply is that we are still in the early innings. We really don't know how well internet commerce will play out. I remain confident, however, that NILE's best days are ahead.

      I recall when traditional bookstores were plentiful. I still remember going to specialty bookstores for specialty books. Now, I just use Amazon and my prior bookstores have disappeared. Poof, gone.

      Will that happen to jewelry retailers? I don't think it will to the same extent. But I do think traditional retailers will need to adapt in order to survive.

      I remain bullish and you remain bearish on NILE. That's what makes markets, no?
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    • Thu Nov 8th 20:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Blue Nile: A Classic Underpromise, Overdeliver Company
      Thank you coitus for your comment.

      I am short ZLC and long NILE and have been since late March. You can check my posts on both stocks. I've done extraordinarily well with my paired trade. Thank you for your congratulations.

      As for the future, let's wait and see. Something for you to consider is that Canada's economy is extremely strong economy and the U.K.'s economy is strong too. Do you think it is conceivable that the leading online jewelry retailer in all three countries could be worth $2-5 billion in five years? If so, I'll let you do the math on the share price.
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    • Thu Nov 8th 10:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Blue Nile: A Classic Underpromise, Overdeliver Company
      Hi Rob,

      Thank you for your comment.

      I don't disagree with your 63x times 2008 earnings or about 50 times 2009 earnings, which was referenced in the article. If the company can continue to grow earnings at 25% at year for the next few years, then I have no concerns.

      Again, they are taking share away from other jewelry retailers. They have no significant online competition. So my view is that the brick and mortar retailers will continue to decline in value and some of that value will go to Blue Nile. Most of the value, however, will go to consumers.

      It will be interesting to watch how the company performs over the next several quarters.

      Best regards,
      Kevin
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