Stecyk's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/114130/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/96588/comments?source=feed#comment-261437 261437 Mon, 22 Sep 2008 11:01:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/57133/comments?source=feed#comment-105226 105226 Thu, 13 Dec 2007 14:32:22 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/53367/comments?source=feed#comment-101619 101619
With regard to my $2-5 billion, while it is true that Zales value alone won't provide all the value, other jewelry retailers might. According to ZLC's last 10K (July 31), their revenue was $2.4 billion. That would seem to imply, at least to me, that jewelry is a highly fragmented market. So an effective online retail jewelry might sell that amount and much more in a short period. And remember, NILE is serving Europe too, not just North America.

I can almost see your reply now suggesting that the NILE's growth rates don't seem to support that assertion. After all, NILE, a small upstart, already has anticipated annual revenues of $320 million. My reply is that we are still in the early innings. We really don't know how well internet commerce will play out. I remain confident, however, that NILE's best days are ahead.

I recall when traditional bookstores were plentiful. I still remember going to specialty bookstores for specialty books. Now, I just use Amazon and my prior bookstores have disappeared. Poof, gone.

Will that happen to jewelry retailers? I don't think it will to the same extent. But I do think traditional retailers will need to adapt in order to survive.

I remain bullish and you remain bearish on NILE. That's what makes markets, no?
]]> Sun, 11 Nov 2007 15:57:35 -0500
With regard to my $2-5 billion, while it is true that Zales value alone won't provide all the value, other jewelry retailers might. According to ZLC's last 10K (July 31), their revenue was $2.4 billion. That would seem to imply, at least to me, that jewelry is a highly fragmented market. So an effective online retail jewelry might sell that amount and much more in a short period. And remember, NILE is serving Europe too, not just North America.

I can almost see your reply now suggesting that the NILE's growth rates don't seem to support that assertion. After all, NILE, a small upstart, already has anticipated annual revenues of $320 million. My reply is that we are still in the early innings. We really don't know how well internet commerce will play out. I remain confident, however, that NILE's best days are ahead.

I recall when traditional bookstores were plentiful. I still remember going to specialty bookstores for specialty books. Now, I just use Amazon and my prior bookstores have disappeared. Poof, gone.

Will that happen to jewelry retailers? I don't think it will to the same extent. But I do think traditional retailers will need to adapt in order to survive.

I remain bullish and you remain bearish on NILE. That's what makes markets, no?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/53367/comments?source=feed#comment-101382 101382
I am short ZLC and long NILE and have been since late March. You can check my posts on both stocks. I've done extraordinarily well with my paired trade. Thank you for your congratulations.

As for the future, let's wait and see. Something for you to consider is that Canada's economy is extremely strong economy and the U.K.'s economy is strong too. Do you think it is conceivable that the leading online jewelry retailer in all three countries could be worth $2-5 billion in five years? If so, I'll let you do the math on the share price.]]> Thu, 08 Nov 2007 20:34:07 -0500
I am short ZLC and long NILE and have been since late March. You can check my posts on both stocks. I've done extraordinarily well with my paired trade. Thank you for your congratulations.

As for the future, let's wait and see. Something for you to consider is that Canada's economy is extremely strong economy and the U.K.'s economy is strong too. Do you think it is conceivable that the leading online jewelry retailer in all three countries could be worth $2-5 billion in five years? If so, I'll let you do the math on the share price.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/53367/comments?source=feed#comment-101311 101311
Thank you for your comment.

I don't disagree with your 63x times 2008 earnings or about 50 times 2009 earnings, which was referenced in the article. If the company can continue to grow earnings at 25% at year for the next few years, then I have no concerns.

Again, they are taking share away from other jewelry retailers. They have no significant online competition. So my view is that the brick and mortar retailers will continue to decline in value and some of that value will go to Blue Nile. Most of the value, however, will go to consumers.

It will be interesting to watch how the company performs over the next several quarters.

Best regards,
Kevin]]> Thu, 08 Nov 2007 10:38:10 -0500
Thank you for your comment.

I don't disagree with your 63x times 2008 earnings or about 50 times 2009 earnings, which was referenced in the article. If the company can continue to grow earnings at 25% at year for the next few years, then I have no concerns.

Again, they are taking share away from other jewelry retailers. They have no significant online competition. So my view is that the brick and mortar retailers will continue to decline in value and some of that value will go to Blue Nile. Most of the value, however, will go to consumers.

It will be interesting to watch how the company performs over the next several quarters.

Best regards,
Kevin]]>