tiredinvestor

The Bull Run Begins This Week

Check TrimTabs, they are specialized in money flows. They say a good portion on money out of the markets by individuals has already been used to pay down debt and daily expenses so do not expect a bull run on risk taking by individuals.

I expect normal investor and saver to be extremely cautios for the next few years.


On Jan 18 05:46 PM Big K wrote:

> I can see many people have a negative view of the future of our economy
> and stock market. With the vast majority of people so bearish, I
> can think there is a possibility of a bull run coming soon. When
> everybody is bearish, all who are going to sell have already done
> so, and big money is sitting on the sideline. At this point only
> long-term investors remain, so there are few people to sell on the
> bad news, hence apparent support. The bearish sentiments have been
> priced in the market. Possibly, many of the above bears have put
> in short positions, which is even more bullish. The market usually
> moves in the direction opposite to what the majority expect. This
> makes perfect sense. Everyone has already positioned themselves for
> the anticipated direction. Why would all these chicken littles saying
> armageddon is coming still be invested in the market? Of course they
> are not, because once armageddon comes, it's already too late. Therefore,
> I think there is a higher probability the market will go up rather
> than down.

How the Federal Government will Lose in 2009

to puttster:

You forget that when deflation hit Japan they were rich, had a great trade surplus and home savings ratio was very high.

US situation right now is very different: no savings, no trade surplus and it owe's money to everybody.

I agree that inlation is the only way out, that or pay debts with assets.

Market Struggle at 50 Day Moving Average, Again

For a stock to be higher it is necessary that someone considers it still a bargain and pays more for it and so bull markets depend, basically, on a net inflow of capital in the market.

So, is it possible to call for a definitive bottom now? I do not think so: money is scarce and we are still in the deleveraging process. Normal people is busier keeping its job and regular income than investing.

Of course there can be rebounds in the market based on speculators and bottom chasers but I do not know anybody that is considering buying for the long term because they prefer cash in case things get nastier in the future.

Artificial U.S. Dollar Rally Is Coming to an End

US has the benefit of a "central command" but monetary policies for California are not necessarily good for Iowa, as it happens in Europe. Euro is based on the german mark and it is very important to understand the importance of a strong currency for the germans who had hiperinflation in 20's.

I am not an economist but I do understand that the move of the FED is to devaluate the dollar "as much as necessary". I think that this may help the economy and prevent too much pain to workers in exchange of being all a bit (or a lot) poorer. Will the dollar be stronger when the economy recovers if it has been based precisely in a dollar devaluation? I don't thinks so.

Uranium Funds Point to Near-Term U3O8 Price Decline

Very interesting article, congratulations.

However I miss an analysis on the possible correlation between Uranium ETFs and normal equity due to frenzy selling. Decline in share price of Uranium Participation Corporation may not reflect sentiment to future uranium price but just be inflicted by liquidation of big long positions.

Uranium Funds Point to Near-Term U3O8 Price Decline

Very interesting article, congratulations.

However I miss an analysis on the possible correlation between Uranium ETFs and normal equity due to frenzy selling. Decline in share price of Uranium Participation Corporation may not reflect sentiment to future uranium price but just be inflicted by liquidation of big long positions.