tiredinvestor's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/11446/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/115255-the-bull-run-begins-this-week?source=feed#comment-361949 361949
I expect normal investor and saver to be extremely cautios for the next few years.


On Jan 18 05:46 PM Big K wrote:

> I can see many people have a negative view of the future of our economy
> and stock market. With the vast majority of people so bearish, I
> can think there is a possibility of a bull run coming soon. When
> everybody is bearish, all who are going to sell have already done
> so, and big money is sitting on the sideline. At this point only
> long-term investors remain, so there are few people to sell on the
> bad news, hence apparent support. The bearish sentiments have been
> priced in the market. Possibly, many of the above bears have put
> in short positions, which is even more bullish. The market usually
> moves in the direction opposite to what the majority expect. This
> makes perfect sense. Everyone has already positioned themselves for
> the anticipated direction. Why would all these chicken littles saying
> armageddon is coming still be invested in the market? Of course they
> are not, because once armageddon comes, it's already too late. Therefore,
> I think there is a higher probability the market will go up rather
> than down.]]> Wed, 21 Jan 2009 11:31:57 -0500
I expect normal investor and saver to be extremely cautios for the next few years.


On Jan 18 05:46 PM Big K wrote:

> I can see many people have a negative view of the future of our economy
> and stock market. With the vast majority of people so bearish, I
> can think there is a possibility of a bull run coming soon. When
> everybody is bearish, all who are going to sell have already done
> so, and big money is sitting on the sideline. At this point only
> long-term investors remain, so there are few people to sell on the
> bad news, hence apparent support. The bearish sentiments have been
> priced in the market. Possibly, many of the above bears have put
> in short positions, which is even more bullish. The market usually
> moves in the direction opposite to what the majority expect. This
> makes perfect sense. Everyone has already positioned themselves for
> the anticipated direction. Why would all these chicken littles saying
> armageddon is coming still be invested in the market? Of course they
> are not, because once armageddon comes, it's already too late. Therefore,
> I think there is a higher probability the market will go up rather
> than down.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114039-how-the-federal-government-will-lose-in-2009?source=feed#comment-351792 351792
You forget that when deflation hit Japan they were rich, had a great trade surplus and home savings ratio was very high.

US situation right now is very different: no savings, no trade surplus and it owe's money to everybody.

I agree that inlation is the only way out, that or pay debts with assets.]]> Sat, 10 Jan 2009 13:44:11 -0500
You forget that when deflation hit Japan they were rich, had a great trade surplus and home savings ratio was very high.

US situation right now is very different: no savings, no trade surplus and it owe's money to everybody.

I agree that inlation is the only way out, that or pay debts with assets.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111605-market-struggle-at-50-day-moving-average-again?source=feed#comment-334086 334086
So, is it possible to call for a definitive bottom now? I do not think so: money is scarce and we are still in the deleveraging process. Normal people is busier keeping its job and regular income than investing.

Of course there can be rebounds in the market based on speculators and bottom chasers but I do not know anybody that is considering buying for the long term because they prefer cash in case things get nastier in the future.]]> Fri, 19 Dec 2008 12:55:06 -0500
So, is it possible to call for a definitive bottom now? I do not think so: money is scarce and we are still in the deleveraging process. Normal people is busier keeping its job and regular income than investing.

Of course there can be rebounds in the market based on speculators and bottom chasers but I do not know anybody that is considering buying for the long term because they prefer cash in case things get nastier in the future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111584-artificial-u-s-dollar-rally-is-coming-to-an-end?source=feed#comment-334062 334062
I am not an economist but I do understand that the move of the FED is to devaluate the dollar "as much as necessary". I think that this may help the economy and prevent too much pain to workers in exchange of being all a bit (or a lot) poorer. Will the dollar be stronger when the economy recovers if it has been based precisely in a dollar devaluation? I don't thinks so.
]]> Fri, 19 Dec 2008 12:33:56 -0500
I am not an economist but I do understand that the move of the FED is to devaluate the dollar "as much as necessary". I think that this may help the economy and prevent too much pain to workers in exchange of being all a bit (or a lot) poorer. Will the dollar be stronger when the economy recovers if it has been based precisely in a dollar devaluation? I don't thinks so.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/39415-uranium-funds-point-to-near-term-u3o8-price-decline?source=feed#comment-89757 89757
However I miss an analysis on the possible correlation between Uranium ETFs and normal equity due to frenzy selling. Decline in share price of Uranium Participation Corporation may not reflect sentiment to future uranium price but just be inflicted by liquidation of big long positions.]]> Wed, 27 Jun 2007 10:11:23 -0400
However I miss an analysis on the possible correlation between Uranium ETFs and normal equity due to frenzy selling. Decline in share price of Uranium Participation Corporation may not reflect sentiment to future uranium price but just be inflicted by liquidation of big long positions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/39415-uranium-funds-point-to-near-term-u3o8-price-decline?source=feed#comment-89756 89756
However I miss an analysis on the possible correlation between Uranium ETFs and normal equity due to frenzy selling. Decline in share price of Uranium Participation Corporation may not reflect sentiment to future uranium price but just be inflicted by liquidation of big long positions.]]> Wed, 27 Jun 2007 10:11:15 -0400
However I miss an analysis on the possible correlation between Uranium ETFs and normal equity due to frenzy selling. Decline in share price of Uranium Participation Corporation may not reflect sentiment to future uranium price but just be inflicted by liquidation of big long positions.]]>