growthvalue

Gold to Replicate Oil's Parabolic Move; 30-yr Treasury Yields to Soar

Dollar is bottoming for a rise into 2009.
Pimco's Bill Gross likes U.S. dollar over euro
Posted Jul 15th 2008 12:24PM by Zack Miller
Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, S and P 500, DJIA, Federal Reserve

Investors have watched the precipitous fall in the U.S. dollar over the past few years with trepidation. Investors in Israeli stocks trading in the U.S. have witnessed the once-lowly shekel dominate the dollar (and most other global currencies) over the past two years. It looks, at least from some uber-investors' perspectives, that the dollar may be set to reverse -- a boon for those companies with significant sales in the U.S.

Bloomberg has an article out this morning saying that bond guru, Bill Gross, the manager of the world's largest bond fund, the $129 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, has turned negative on the euro for the first time since its inception in 1999. According to the article, Gross's firm, Pimco, believes that according to purchasing power parity, a measure used to account for differences in exchange rates across countries, the euro is overvalued by 30%.

And Gross isn't the only one who is concerned that Europe may suffer a bigger slowdown than the U.S. in a world confronted with slowing growth and financial snafus. The same Bloomberg article says that according to a recent poll conducted by Bloomberg of global strategists, many think that the euro has seen its day and that the dollar is poised for a rally (hard to believe in the face of Fannie Mae and IndyMac).

Europe's Trichet-led Central Bank has signaled that it may be done raising rates. In fact, given the choice between fighting inflation and re-energizing a sputtering economy, some are betting that the ECB may need to actually lower rates. With a Fed-led plan to bailout the U.S. banking system and the bottoming out of the dollar, it looks like Gross and Co. are betting against the euro for years to come.