Peter Wellington

Disturbing Trends at Harley-Davidson: Why It's Time to Sell

This is some great analysis Reese. However, I think you may have made an important mistake in the table, "Dealer Inventory Contributing Signficant EPS." In column 2, Deliveries, you have included Buell-brand sales in the total (roughly 10,000 per year). However, in the Reported Retail Sales line you are counting only Harley-brand bikes--Buell is not included. About 80% of the "inventory-build" you calculate from 2004-2006 is just the sale of Buell bikes--not inventory-build at all. A careful reading of the 10-Q shows this difference.