solar jim

Invest in Silver Over Gold

well, you see, its actually around 7,500 on a relative basis although the actual point number is in the 9,000's today. The reason is that the dollar has been debased since the dow was last at 10,000. Looking from the bottom in the 6'000's the dow has really only recovered to 7,500'ish due to the dilution of purchasing power of the dollar. Look no further to understand the rise in gold - and why it will continue to do so.


On Nov 03 08:51 PM Hyperinflation wrote:

> I think the market is grossly overvalued at 10k. I think the next
> bear market decline will bring the dow somewhere between 8000-8500
>

Has the U.S. Reached the Hyperinflation Tipping Point?

The definition used by most economists for hyperinflation is "an inflationary cycle without any tendency toward equilibrium."

Now, you don't have to have 3000% per year inflation for that. It simply implies that the level of inflation is growing and not stabilizing and each iteration of the cycle of money printing to pay bills causes it to ratchet up further.


On Oct 15 09:45 PM goldbug101 wrote:

> Well, if it is true "hyperinflation" (ala Zimbabwe / Weimar) is coming
> then civil society within the US will come to an end and there will
> be mass riots and most likely martial law and forced dusk to dawn
> curfews.
>
> I don't think the US government would ever let it get to the point
> of "hyperinflation", rather what will most likely occur will be a
> prolonged period of high inflation.
>
> Someday a can of Coke will cost $5 or so, high inflation, but "hyperinflation"
> (ala Zimbabwe / Weimar) for USD isn't gonna happen.
>
> For hyperinflation, that can of Coke will have to cost around $150,000!
>
>
> Stop tossing around the term "hyperinflation" and instead use the
> correct terminology - prolonged period of high inflation.
>
> If one really believes hyperinflation will occur ala Weimer or Zimbabwe,
> then you better have:
>
> (1) Lots of guns & ammo
> (2) Basement vault full of actual gold
> (3) Lots of MREs and canned foodstuff or live on farmland with livestock
>
> (4) Stockpiles of gasoline and fresh water
>
> Shakespeare said it would start by killing all the lawyers. If true
> hyperinflation comes to pass, it will be the bankers first followed
> quickly by the politicians.
>
> Let's recap that fact- "hyperinflation" (ala Zimbabwe / Weimar) for
> USD isn't gonna happen.
>
> The US will go to war with China before hyperinflation ala Zimbabwe
> / Weimar takes place.

Burgeoning Bioplastics: Metabolix's Breakthrough

author said: MBLX: I'm just throwing the reference out there, haven't looked at it yet properly.

You should take a look at it. Unlike all the players you listed above, MBLX has 100% fully biodegradeable bioplastics that degrade in natural environment of soil, water, sand, arid, wet, etc... The players you list above all need secondary treatments to the created plastic to reuse or recycle. They are not use and throw away anywhere products that decompose on their own without secondary treatment of heating or another chemical applied.

MBLX has a commercial plant that will start production by the end of this year. You may have heard of their partner in this project, a little company that's been around for a year or two called ADM. Already have contracts for when production starts. While its small now, their future is huge.

They are the only company that exists that has a fully biodegradable plastic. Their plastic is grown in algae and harvested. Future platforms are switchgrass and oilseeds. The switchgrass program is slated for commercial production in the next couple years.

MBLX plastic can be used in the same production machines that use traditional plastics as well. Check them out when you write another article on bioplastics.

The Honeymoon Is Over: Gauging the Market with an Obama Presidency

This Bud's For You said:

"There are 55 million Americans who did not swallow the Obama Kool-Aid." Speaking for myself, I can only hope his statement is the truest one uttered by him in at least 21 months. He promised more than he could payoff, but the pandering got him the votes he needed to get elected.

But to be fair, the only difference between him, the Democrats collectively, and the Republicans collectively is the speed with which they will bankrupt the nation and confiscate our individual wealth through monetization of the ever increasing debt.




If you didn't drink the Obama KoolAid did you drink the McCain KoolAid? Or just not vote? Or go with a third party candidate that does nothing but appease your inner self as they will never win and have no power base once in?

Especially since you said the only difference is how fast either will get to the same spot and that Obama won because he pandered. And McCain wasn't?

So did you vote at all? If so, McCain? Obama? Third party?

Your statements would imply that it's useless to vote for either or any, yet if you don't vote then you have no point to complain. Yet you then attack Obama... interesting.

A Giant Pinball Game - Fast Money Recap (9/30/08)

If its a foreign bank that bought a US unit that then got in trouble or was in trouble its the same as if it is a wholly owned US bank - less lending here and the system seizes up and the death spiral downward continues. It's a consequence of pushing globalization that this is affecting everyone everywhere as now the bad debt is everywhere. You know, it's funny - I don't see too many people pushing globalization and deregulation as much as they did a year ago.

A Giant Pinball Game - Fast Money Recap (9/30/08)

To Britishsteel: Actually, I can't vote for it. And I haven't ever seen any House representatives or senators on this site so I'm not quite sure why you're telling us to vote against it. Until it changes, US is a representative democracy and its the rep/sen who actually votes on behalf of us.

First Solar Cheaper Than SunPower - Citi

I love comments like Verity's. Absolutely nothing other than bias (short that is). What's your logic, reasoning, or facts to support that statement?

FSLR is actually finishing their plant expansions faster than initially planned and talked about and the ramp is going faster and quicker each plant as well. So considering they will have just about or over 1 Gw in yearly production capacity at end of next year I'm interested to hear how they are going to 'fail'. Everything they do they deliver better than initially projected, which means you have an interesting idea of failure.

Just as they have long term contracts to deliver panels to customers they have contracts to get delivered to them a bunch of tellerium on a long term basis. Anyone who uses the Te argument and tight supply is a dumbass. It's called a long term contract for delivery of the element needed in supply to meet the long term contracts they have to make panels. Tough, I know, to actually do a few minutes of investigation, but very much worth it.

Solar Cycles and Stocks: The Sun Also Rises

the problem with the chinese companies is that if there is a bear market for cells as the article contemplates, they are completely average, they have nothing to differentiate themselves from all the other silicon "non thin film" cell makers. They have average conversion efficiency of about 16% while SPWR is getting ready to roll out a 23% efficiency cell.

In opposition to many types of manufacturing, solar doesn't take all that much labor in the form of people. Its a small part of the total cost equation meaning China doesn't enjoy this huge advantage like they do in textiles or other labor intensive industries.

Solar panels weigh a good bit. Shipping from China, at these oil prices, increases the cost and it becomes harder to maintain any cost advantage.

And the idea that AMAT is going to do anything is laughable. Maybe in ten years. They sell undifferentiated equipment, which was an adaptation of chip gear. I believe that proprietary technologies and equipment are going to do better (FSLR, ENER, Nanosolar), otherwise they would already be buying AMAT equipment instead of continuing to expand with their own technology.

Janet Yellen on Risks, Prospects for the U.S. Economy

I mean, I know I don't have a PhD in Economics let alone any discipline. nonethelss, logic has its place. I'd like to hear Yelen talk about the previous fed chief's occupancy. How does she agree or disagree with the policy hikes/cuts that were enacted over that tenure? Considering that Greenspan handled the economy like the old man he is and overcorrecting every time he hit the curb on the other side of the street I wonder how much of that overcorrection mentality is with Yellen to just recorrect when they've clearly way overshot previous ideological paradigms.

Janet Yellen on Risks, Prospects for the U.S. Economy

Yellen has always been the same. Screw the little guy at the expense of maintaining an aristocracy. It's only a problem when the big money people start to have a problem. The middle, or lower, class has no representation in her economic models. She's never seen an economic situation that wouldn't be served well with a rate hike. It's nice to have no inflation if you've got wealth. Unfortunatley, once we left the gold standard the idea is that there is implicit inflation going forward. It makes it that much harder, if not impossible, for lower classes to actually make a move upward to the next upward level of class in our society.

SEPA Report Showing End-Market Demand Disconnect Could Sink First Solar, SunPower

whoever was talking up TSL on labor costs doesn't really understand solar. The panel producers are mostly automated with very little labor. What lower labor costs exist in China are not enough to offset the lower technological capability of their pv panels on conversion efficiency and also total cost.

First Solar Spreads Some Sunshine

solar is not very labor intensive so China doesn't have this huge leg up like they do with toys and other heavy labor oriented type industries (toys/garments/etc). With solar its execution, not who pays the least labor that wins. FSLR has been flawless since IPO'ing last year. I expect more of the same.

First Solar Spreads Some Sunshine

Um... most all the China based players?

Northern Oil May Be Headed South - Barron's

Another article from Barron's that is bearish. I think its a requirement to get a job there that you are not allowed to ever give a positive piece of coverage. I don't know offhand, but I'll bet they said to sell GOOG at every point along its stock lifetime. If you want to not make money - buy a subscription to Barron's.

While I don't own any NOG and don't plan on it, I did research them along with CLR when I was looking into the Bakken oil. I went with CLR, but not because I thought NOG was in trouble as the author of this article does.

All Barron's does is print with abondon all the rumors they get from anonymous 'insiders' who in actuality are more likely hedge funds that have huge short positions they want to blow out at a profit (after using Barrons to disseminate the propaganda).

I saw the cover of Barrons a week or two ago (and really, there's not much point in wasting your time reading past the front page) and they had the question on the front asking if the housing downturn was over. I bet they advocated to get in and buy some homebuilders. Watch how that one plays out over the next year while the market still tries to find a bottom, unsuccessfully, in housing. People like to bash Cramer, but these guys are soooo much worse. Cramer at least gets it right sometimes on some grand slams. These guys.... I think the best that can be said is that they might not lose you too much money if your lucky.

Investing in Oil Prices, Not Companies

To Michael Levy:

If speculation is the reason oil is going up then at some point people would have to take actual possession of the good and continue to keep taking it off the market and continually reduce the total supply enough to actually raise prices over the amount actually produced by hoarding it somewhere. Please show me where these extra barrels that speculators are buying are being stored - which costs still more capital.

The fact that people don't want to address is that the US dollar has decreased in purchasing power under the Bush administration. As oil is priced in dollars and these other sovereign nations (middle east) want to have the same purchasing power as before the price goes up as a reflection of that fact.

China and India are growing at a very fast pace. The US and other devloped nations can do little to stop the rise in energy costs by raising interet rates so long as China, India, Brazil, etc... keep growing as fast as they currently are. If the major users, and buyers, are these fast groing counties that don't have a problem continuing to buy and push up rates then everyone else gets to join in for higher prices.

If this doesn't make sense then get ready to keep paying ever more over the next decade, or two, and have no idea why prices keep going up.