solar jim

Solar Cycles and Stocks: The Sun Also Rises

the problem with the chinese companies is that if there is a bear market for cells as the article contemplates, they are completely average, they have nothing to differentiate themselves from all the other silicon "non thin film" cell makers. They have average conversion efficiency of about 16% while SPWR is getting ready to roll out a 23% efficiency cell.

In opposition to many types of manufacturing, solar doesn't take all that much labor in the form of people. Its a small part of the total cost equation meaning China doesn't enjoy this huge advantage like they do in textiles or other labor intensive industries.

Solar panels weigh a good bit. Shipping from China, at these oil prices, increases the cost and it becomes harder to maintain any cost advantage.

And the idea that AMAT is going to do anything is laughable. Maybe in ten years. They sell undifferentiated equipment, which was an adaptation of chip gear. I believe that proprietary technologies and equipment are going to do better (FSLR, ENER, Nanosolar), otherwise they would already be buying AMAT equipment instead of continuing to expand with their own technology.

Senate May Kill Solar Rally

FSLR is already looking at nonsubsidized markets that they can compete in right now and make a profit. While the tax credit would help expand business and scale at a faster pace it will happen nonetheless although at a slower pace to grid parity if it does not pass. The U.S. isn't the only market either. The other markets in the world as well as individual states (ie CA) have enough incentives in place for enough years under already passed law to allow at least a couple of the solar players to expand capacity and the market to a size that they can compete without any subsidy anywhere in by 2011-2012, if not sooner. And that's without considering the passage of some sort of tax on carbon making all current cheap energy not cheap anymore with a future McCain/Obama/Clinton administration as they all are on the global warming bus together.