solar jim

The Honeymoon Is Over: Gauging the Market with an Obama Presidency

This Bud's For You said:

"There are 55 million Americans who did not swallow the Obama Kool-Aid." Speaking for myself, I can only hope his statement is the truest one uttered by him in at least 21 months. He promised more than he could payoff, but the pandering got him the votes he needed to get elected.

But to be fair, the only difference between him, the Democrats collectively, and the Republicans collectively is the speed with which they will bankrupt the nation and confiscate our individual wealth through monetization of the ever increasing debt.




If you didn't drink the Obama KoolAid did you drink the McCain KoolAid? Or just not vote? Or go with a third party candidate that does nothing but appease your inner self as they will never win and have no power base once in?

Especially since you said the only difference is how fast either will get to the same spot and that Obama won because he pandered. And McCain wasn't?

So did you vote at all? If so, McCain? Obama? Third party?

Your statements would imply that it's useless to vote for either or any, yet if you don't vote then you have no point to complain. Yet you then attack Obama... interesting.

First Solar Cheaper Than SunPower - Citi

I love comments like Verity's. Absolutely nothing other than bias (short that is). What's your logic, reasoning, or facts to support that statement?

FSLR is actually finishing their plant expansions faster than initially planned and talked about and the ramp is going faster and quicker each plant as well. So considering they will have just about or over 1 Gw in yearly production capacity at end of next year I'm interested to hear how they are going to 'fail'. Everything they do they deliver better than initially projected, which means you have an interesting idea of failure.

Just as they have long term contracts to deliver panels to customers they have contracts to get delivered to them a bunch of tellerium on a long term basis. Anyone who uses the Te argument and tight supply is a dumbass. It's called a long term contract for delivery of the element needed in supply to meet the long term contracts they have to make panels. Tough, I know, to actually do a few minutes of investigation, but very much worth it.

SEPA Report Showing End-Market Demand Disconnect Could Sink First Solar, SunPower

whoever was talking up TSL on labor costs doesn't really understand solar. The panel producers are mostly automated with very little labor. What lower labor costs exist in China are not enough to offset the lower technological capability of their pv panels on conversion efficiency and also total cost.

First Solar Spreads Some Sunshine

solar is not very labor intensive so China doesn't have this huge leg up like they do with toys and other heavy labor oriented type industries (toys/garments/etc). With solar its execution, not who pays the least labor that wins. FSLR has been flawless since IPO'ing last year. I expect more of the same.

First Solar Spreads Some Sunshine

Um... most all the China based players?

Senate May Kill Solar Rally

FSLR is already looking at nonsubsidized markets that they can compete in right now and make a profit. While the tax credit would help expand business and scale at a faster pace it will happen nonetheless although at a slower pace to grid parity if it does not pass. The U.S. isn't the only market either. The other markets in the world as well as individual states (ie CA) have enough incentives in place for enough years under already passed law to allow at least a couple of the solar players to expand capacity and the market to a size that they can compete without any subsidy anywhere in by 2011-2012, if not sooner. And that's without considering the passage of some sort of tax on carbon making all current cheap energy not cheap anymore with a future McCain/Obama/Clinton administration as they all are on the global warming bus together.

Major Corporate Shift to Solar Energy and LEDs

I love how some people always feel a need to print Gore's name in all uppercase "ALGORE". Tells you everything you need to know.

Further Musings on Solar Stocks

I consider fundamental analysis to be similar to einsteinian physics. With physics it works perfect for 99%+ of the situations until you get to the very very small where quantum effects take over and the rules you've been using don't work anymore and break down. Fundamental analysis is simlar, I believe, when using it on young industries that are not close to being mature slower grwoing companies yet.

Further Musings on Solar Stocks

Hey Jack,

If solar were a more mature industry I don't think I would have any issue with anything you've mentioned above. The only mistake I think you may be making is in applying good and very solid fundamental analysis on an industry that is still in, for the most part, hyper growth mode at the early part of its lifetime.

Another function of p/e spreads within an industry relates to the markets belief of risk for each company to execute and earn the projected revenue/earnings going forward. Companies in China are harder to ascertain whether the news is actuality, as well as having less news/releases, and so they therefore generally have lower p/e's than western based companies that other than location are exactly the same.

I would argue with your assessment of FSLR and the others being no different. In fact, there is quite a bit of difference. FSLR has a higher profit margin than all the other solar companies. They have already presold 70% of all the panels they will make through 2012, which includes all the currently announced factory expansions taking them to 1 Gigawatt per year by around mid 09. Except for FSLR, all the ones mentioned above use silicon and as far as I know they all make them they same way in that its a slightly modified version of CPU chip making with many less steps than CPU chips, but still lots more time/work to create that wafer of cells than FSLR takes. FSLR is automated continuous line. They've been increasing the Mw run rate of each line each quarter. Even if another company were to start doing thin film with CdTe they would have to find a different way as FSLR's line tech is proprietary and they have intellectual property on that. Most of the other companies buy stock solar equipment from manufacturers.

If you're looking at companies that all use stock solar equipment than I agree with you exactly on selling whatever the higher p/e stock is and buying the lowest p/e stock because they are the same - apples to apples. So while FSLR does have a high p/e it should have a higher p/e due to their tech position over those that aren't innovating at the edge. I'm not justifying the current price or saying it deserves to be higher, but I do believe it should have a premium to the others due to its position. That may change going forward, but right now, they are the clear leader and will be for at least another few years. Of course, what premium they should receive is open to debate. Going forward, I do not expect to continue to see a premium of 100%+ to the average of the field.

Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space

I don't have any real disagreements with what you are saying. the PEG ratio is usually a large consideration for me with regard to buying equities. However, I do have a little different philosophy on whether the FSLR you mentioned is truly overvalued. I think the PEG ratio is a better analysis tool when looking at more mature companies, or at least companies that are the same in that they make their product/revenue by the exact same process - say VISA vs MA - with the only difference being execution or business practices therefore it makes sense to buy the undervalued one of the two, or however many are in your set.

Without discussing or debating the prospects of FSLR's revenue/earnings growth rate and whether it merits the current 2008 p/e I would first point out that "analysts" havn't been correct on this company once since the very first qtr as a public company. Considering the percentage amount that the company has managed to beat "analysts" projected earnings every quarter to date I think it is prudent to realize that the current 2008 p/e for FSLR, and some of the other higher priced stocks (on p/e 2008 ratio) are only correct so long as the "analysts" are correct this time. While this doesn't bring the PEG ratio to TSL levels or any of the China based solar plays, it would lower it.

First Solar and SunPower: Competitors With Synergy

I also agree with Andrew regarding FSLR. Of the current public PV companies it is the best. People keep talking about Nanosolar/Miasole, etc... but neither is at commercial stage yet or producing more than a few (less than 10) Mw per year. By end of 2009, FSLR will be at roughly 1000Mw per year, or 1 Gw, of production. For thin film solar FSLR is the only one to own. They are years ahead of the competition.

First Solar and SunPower: Competitors With Synergy

SPWR has a lot of intellectual property as well on their products, which helps keep them in the lead over other silicon PV producers, like REC mentioned earlier.

First Solar and SunPower: Competitors With Synergy

Andrew,

Only thing I would point out is that I believe the reason SPWR does not use all of their own cells for themselves is due to contractual obligations to deliver these cells, which were in place prior to their acqisition of Powerlight, which then allowed them to use their own surplus cells after contractual obligations for themselves.

First Solar and SunPower: Competitors With Synergy

where is STP in this? They are bigger than SPWR and the stock is valued lower! Might want to mention them; unless this was an article about US companies..

Scott
-marketbar


Pretty Simple reason STP isn't mentioned - they aren't a market leader in terms of innovation or efficiency. What's the conversion of STP panels? SPWR is at 22% currently. I'll bet you even money STP is in the 15-16% range. That's why they aren't mentioned. SPWR makes other products such as roof tiles that substitute for roof shingling during construction of a new home while STP does not have such a product that I am aware of. That's why STP isn't in here. Again, I may be wrong, but I don't believe STP installs system as well as panels whereas SPWR is vertically integrated, which is another reason.

While STP may be a good investment its a China play and the way they win is through mass production and saving on labor, not innovation. Think SPWR as being more Intel with innovation versus STP being more AMD in backward engineering Intel's successes. Whenever any crunch or industry consolidation occurs I am way more confident of SPWR's ability to survive/weather the downturn and come out with gains versus STP whose only advantage, at best, is cost.

First Solar Q4 2007 Conference Call - Visualization

I like it.