The model's estimate for the number of iPhone's sold for next quarter will be: 36.000 mln. units.

It seems that the estimate is above consensus by a large amount. This is the main reason why I want to share you this number.

**Disclosure: **I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

The model's estimate for the number of iPhone's sold for next quarter will be: 36.000 mln. units.

It seems that the estimate is above consensus by a large amount. This is the main reason why I want to share you this number.

**Disclosure: **I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

As I promised in my previous post, I would publish the model's unit sales estimate for Apple's iPod for the quarter BEFORE the real number will be out to really show the power of the model.

Ok, here we go ...

The model's estimate for the number of iPod's sold for next quarter will be: 3.852 mln. units.

As I mentioned in my previous post, I have specific forecasts for iPhone unit sales as well (and these are far more important of course for Apple's total revenues), but my goal is to let you have a preview of the model's effectiveness.

If you have any questions, please drop me an e-mail.

Thanks

**Disclosure: **I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

As I promised in my previous post, I would publish the model's unit sales estimate for Apple's iPod for the quarter BEFORE the real number will be out to really show the power of the model.

Ok, here we go ...

The model's estimate for the number of iPod's sold for next quarter will be: 3.852 mln. units.

As I mentioned in my previous post, I have specific forecasts for iPhone unit sales as well (and these are far more important of course for Apple's total revenues), but my goal is to let you have a preview of the model's effectiveness.

If you have any questions, please drop me an e-mail.

Thanks

**Disclosure: **I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

As I promised in my previous post, I would publish the model's unit sales estimate for Apple's iPod for the next quarter BEFORE the real number will be out to really show the power of the model.

Ok, here we go ...

The model's estimate for the number of iPod's sold for next quarter will be: **5.185 mln. units.**

As I mentioned in my previous post, I have specific forecasts for iPhone unit sales as well (and these are far more important of course for Apple's total revenues), but my goal is to let you have a preview of the model's effectiveness.

If you have any questions, please drop me an e-mail.

Thanks

**Disclosure: **I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

As I promised in my previous post, I would publish the model's unit sales estimate for Apple's iPod for the next quarter BEFORE the real number will be out to really show the power of the model.

Ok, here we go ...

The model's estimate for the number of iPod's sold for next quarter will be: **5.185 mln. units.**

If you have any questions, please drop me an e-mail.

Thanks

**Disclosure: **I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

This is exactly the reason why we wanted to update you about a new thing we are working on. It is based on the assumption that collective online behavior will provide us with very interesting insights into all sorts of real-life activity. As a lot of prospective buyers of consumer products use the internet to evaluate their potential purchase of a new iPhone, the activity of these internet-users (such as reading reviews of iPhone or searching for the cheapest available iPhone) will provide essential clues to forecasting consumer product sales.

Let us introduce the Investor Intelligence Collective Behavior Index (II-CBI). We build this index for an increasing number of consumer products, such as Apple's iPhone or iPod.

Let us show you the effectiveness of this index in forecasting the iPod sales.

The graph below shows the relationship between the forecasted iPod sales and the realized iPod sales.

As one can see the R-square is more than 95%. __This is an incredible result and really does show the power of the II-CBI.__

Please do note that we didn't do any fitting of the variables or data-mining. The great thing about the II-CBI model is that it is NOT build on any regression, so it is less prone to statistical errors and therefore more robust than many other models. Also the forecasts have been published in advance to a number of people to prevent any adjustments to the forecasts after the official numbers came out.

But it's biggest advantage is the fact that it provides us with high frequency data on the development of iPod sales (or other consumer products !). Currently the index can be provided on a daily basis !

Another advantage is that the sample we use is a much larger one than any of the consumer research/surveys you will get from the well known research companies.

Last but not least, the cost is very low. Since the process is highly automatic the cost will be a fraction of the costs of comparable surveys.

To summarize, the advantages are:

1. High effectiveness (higher than other studies I have seen)

2. Higher frequency of data / more timely

3. Larger sample

4. Lower cost

By the way, we know that currently Apple's stock is not being driven by the number of iPods sold in a quarter. iPhones sales are much more important and it is very interesting to note that sales forecasts for iPhone have also a very high hit-ratio.

Please follow us, so you will receive a timely update on the development of sales of iPhones and iPods so you can judge for yourself whether the II-CBI really works !

Thanks for reading and good luck investing !

strategic.investmentdm@gmail.com

PS: if you have questions and or want to have insights into other consumer related products please sent me an email as well !

**Disclosure: **I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

This is exactly the reason why we wanted to update you about a new thing we are working on. It is based on the assumption that collective online behavior will provide us with very interesting insights into all sorts of real-life activity. As a lot of prospective buyers of consumer products use the internet to evaluate their potential purchase of a new iPhone, the activity of these internet-users (such as reading reviews of iPhone or searching for the cheapest available iPhone) will provide essential clues to forecasting consumer product sales.

Let us introduce the Investor Intelligence Collective Behavior Index (II-CBI). We build this index for an increasing number of consumer products, such as Apple's iPhone or iPod.

Let us show you the effectiveness of this index in forecasting the iPod sales.

The graph below shows the relationship between the forecasted iPod sales and the realized iPod sales.

As one can see the R-square is more than 95%. __This is an incredible result and really does show the power of the II-CBI.__

Please do note that we didn't do any fitting of the variables or data-mining. The great thing about the II-CBI model is that it is NOT build on any regression, so it is less prone to statistical errors and therefore more robust than many other models. Also the forecasts have been published in advance to a number of people to prevent any adjustments to the forecasts after the official numbers came out.

But it's biggest advantage is the fact that it provides us with high frequency data on the development of iPod sales (or other consumer products !). Currently the index can be provided on a daily basis !

Another advantage is that the sample we use is a much larger one than any of the consumer research/surveys you will get from the well known research companies.

Last but not least, the cost is very low. Since the process is highly automatic the cost will be a fraction of the costs of comparable surveys.

To summarize, the advantages are:

1. High effectiveness (higher than other studies I have seen)

2. Higher frequency of data / more timely

3. Larger sample

4. Lower cost

By the way, we know that currently Apple's stock is not being driven by the number of iPods sold in a quarter. iPhones sales are much more important and it is very interesting to note that sales forecasts for iPhone have also a very high hit-ratio.

Please follow us, so you will receive a timely update on the development of sales of iPhones and iPods so you can judge for yourself whether the II-CBI really works !

Thanks for reading and good luck investing !

strategic.investmentdm@gmail.com

PS: if you have questions and or want to have insights into other consumer related products please sent me an email as well !

**Disclosure: **I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.