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Why Apple Stock Is Poised To Go Flat - At Best

So wait a minute...Apple's market cap is getting too big, but it is just now attempting to go mainstream?

Let's continue to poke holes in his arguments:

1. "I mean Apple being a larger company than GE with only 5% market share in the electronics department, I doubt it."

When Apple is still doubling it's earnings (counting deferred revenue up front), not that difficult. You see, there comes a firm belief from many of us that Apple will be the computer of choice in five years. It will overtake Microsoft. Apple will overtake GE in marketcap. Apple will become the biggest company in the world by owning our entire digital life.

2. "What if people prefer a much smaller mobile device with only voice capabilities to a large one with a screen and a lot of data tools?"

Not gonna happen. It's about convergence in the future. But even if so, then Apple will make one that's easier to use than any other competitors device. It's the beauty of Apple. They don't necessarily start trends. They see where they are going, and do it better than anyone else.

3. "Recent projections tie a significant amount of projected revenues to the App Store."

A few. But not enough revenue to significantly affect earnings.

4. "I think major game developers would be quick to establish their own devices and own App Stores."

[sarcasm]Right...becau... EA made their own Nintendo DS.[/sarcasm]

It's all about convergence. No one wants to carry around 3 or 4 different devices in their pocket. That's why a "smaller mobile device with only voice capabilities" is not the future.

Game developers will embrace the iPhone. Period. They aren't going to make their own device, especially given the costs and since the App store isn't a profit maker anyways.

Apple's whole business model has been to use iTunes, to use the App Store to sell hardware...iPhones, iPods, Macs. That's why so many other online music services have failed, because the service in itself isn't that profitable.

5. "Apple is trying to make up for its decreasing margins in the devices department through making use of the greater volume in its iTunes and App Store. However, if a serious attempt is made by Apple’s rivals in targeting its online stores Apple’s profit margins can be under serious trouble. In turn, an earnings miss could make a huge dent in Apple’s stock."

Remember that the iPhone isn't just $199, but that it's getting at least $200+ per device from the carriers. So technically, it's margins are not decreasing on that product at all.

Second, Apple's rivals have seriously tried to make a dent against iTunes. Microsoft, Dell, Napster and they have all failed!

6. "As people get more financially strained, discretionary premium products are the first thing to go."

Possibly. But cell phones are no longer a discretionary product. I think as things get tighter, consumers will get smarter.

What will get canceled is satellite radio services as you can now access programs and radio on the iPhone itself. Satellite TV and Cable will get canceled because you can now access just the shows you want through AppleTV and the iPhone.

Convergence!

Heck, even a MacBook or iMac will save you money because of all the software that comes with it.