mkreisel

BDI Signals Slack Demand for Raw Materials

BDI seems to lead SPX by a couple of months during the last 12 months.

If Housing Were Priced in Gold

Every asset has its own bull or bear markets.

So far we are in year 8 of a Gold bull and year 4 of a housing bear markets. 16 million US homeowners are underwater, and in a lcountry of non-recourse loans, the allure of strategically defaulting has never been greater.

So what should investors bet?

What's Driving Lithium? Merrill McHenry on the 'Technology' Metal

There are already lots of battery makers out there in many countries, so I don't think there are lots of money left for investors in that space.

For investors to make decent money in high growth industries, one or very few companies must monopolize a vital part of the supply chain.

Dividends Get No Respect

It's not only that dividend stocks don't get respect, companies with stable earnings in general don't get any respect during the current rally.

The show belongs to garbage with one leg in bankruptcy grave, such as AIG, C, FNM, FRE, and LVS.

Japan to the U.S.: 'We Don't Want to Exclude You, But...'

The problem is that the world is way too connected and our border is very open, any failed states can generate thousands of lunatics who are more than happy to fly jet planes into buildings.

Passive defense can only help so much.

On Sep 16 04:17 PM Living4Dividends wrote:

> And really, why should America be the world's policeman ? We saved
> the world from tyranny in WWII, and from communism. The world has
> a short memory.
>
> Perhaps the world no longer wants our services. In Iraq and Somalia,
> our soldiers got spat upon and their bodies dragged through the streets.
> If we must do "nation building" let nation building begin here in
> our own country.

Global Imbalances: The Fall of Wal-Mart and the Rise of Rural China

If China's manufacturing costs go up, Wal-Mart will just source more stuffs from India, Indonesia, Mexico, Thailand, Vietnam, and even Africa. As long as Wal-Mart enjoys its cost advantage vs other retailers, I fail to see how it would "fall".

Japan to the U.S.: 'We Don't Want to Exclude You, But...'

East Asia is sitting on a powder keg.

But two sides are fighting, someone is always winning. The question is how we can be that "someone".

Economists and the Fed Differ

Housing (rent), consumer goods are in deflation mode, considering that even the vaunted Procter & Gamble has to cut prices. Didn't Buffett invest in Gillette (and now P&G) for its supposed pricing power?

The Looming Threat of Peak Water, Part II

US is ok, except for a few locations in the Southwest.

3069 km^3 per 300 M inhabitants looks quite decent. In worst case we can get more from Canada, which has 3300 km^3 per 30M inhabitants.

But China and India are in really deep trouble.

4743 km^3 per 2400 M inhabitants looks a tight.

Prospects for Electric Cars

Charging on interstate travels will prove to be the biggest problem.

Tesla Motors currently expects at least 45 minutes for 300 miles distance. Even though I could live with that, I doubt most other people will have the same patience.

Obama Is Wrong to Impose Punitive Tariffs on Chinese-Made Tires

A big country with too little manufacturing base has no security.

Death Comes to Wal-Mart China

One of Baidu's security guard raped and killed an employee, and it didn't stop BIDU from being the bull of the year.

Consumer Deleveraging

If the demand is so weak, why not print more money (not borrowing anymore) and give everybody a raise?

If the dollar suffers as a consequence, so be it! Let's just make the stuffs here instead of in China.

A Much-Needed Word from John Bogle and Warren Buffett on Short-Term Markets

What we are having now is socialism for the top 1%.

Solar Is Gaining Momentum: Will the U.S. Be Left in the Dark?

China makes lots of noise these days, sort like what the USSR was doing in early 1930s. It managed to suck tens of thousands Americans into Gulags, never to return, let's hope things will turn out more benign this time.

However, media noise attracts people's attention. China's recent 2GW sounds impressive, but won't be done for another decade. Within China, installed solar PV capacity is pathetically tiny at mere 100MW; and given that most wealthy Chinese live in concrete high rises, roof top is not going to make much sense there either.

Meanwhile, nobody is talking about the 800MW California plant that will be going online within a couple of years.

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