mkreisel's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/115587/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/163742-bdi-signals-slack-demand-for-raw-materials?source=feed#comment-694636 694636 Mon, 28 Sep 2009 19:15:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163166-if-housing-were-priced-in-gold?source=feed#comment-689736 689736
So far we are in year 8 of a Gold bull and year 4 of a housing bear markets. 16 million US homeowners are underwater, and in a lcountry of non-recourse loans, the allure of strategically defaulting has never been greater.

So what should investors bet?]]> Thu, 24 Sep 2009 14:38:33 -0400
So far we are in year 8 of a Gold bull and year 4 of a housing bear markets. 16 million US homeowners are underwater, and in a lcountry of non-recourse loans, the allure of strategically defaulting has never been greater.

So what should investors bet?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160989-what-s-driving-lithium-merrill-mchenry-on-the-technology-metal?source=feed#comment-685693 685693
For investors to make decent money in high growth industries, one or very few companies must monopolize a vital part of the supply chain.]]> Mon, 21 Sep 2009 21:09:00 -0400
For investors to make decent money in high growth industries, one or very few companies must monopolize a vital part of the supply chain.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162369-dividends-get-no-respect?source=feed#comment-685574 685574
The show belongs to garbage with one leg in bankruptcy grave, such as AIG, C, FNM, FRE, and LVS.]]> Mon, 21 Sep 2009 19:05:05 -0400
The show belongs to garbage with one leg in bankruptcy grave, such as AIG, C, FNM, FRE, and LVS.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161815-japan-to-the-u-s-we-don-t-want-to-exclude-you-but?source=feed#comment-681896 681896
Passive defense can only help so much.

On Sep 16 04:17 PM Living4Dividends wrote:

> And really, why should America be the world's policeman ? We saved
> the world from tyranny in WWII, and from communism. The world has
> a short memory.
>
> Perhaps the world no longer wants our services. In Iraq and Somalia,
> our soldiers got spat upon and their bodies dragged through the streets.
> If we must do "nation building" let nation building begin here in
> our own country.]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 22:41:31 -0400
Passive defense can only help so much.

On Sep 16 04:17 PM Living4Dividends wrote:

> And really, why should America be the world's policeman ? We saved
> the world from tyranny in WWII, and from communism. The world has
> a short memory.
>
> Perhaps the world no longer wants our services. In Iraq and Somalia,
> our soldiers got spat upon and their bodies dragged through the streets.
> If we must do "nation building" let nation building begin here in
> our own country.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162109-global-imbalances-the-fall-of-wal-mart-and-the-rise-of-rural-china?source=feed#comment-681891 681891 Thu, 17 Sep 2009 22:34:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161815-japan-to-the-u-s-we-don-t-want-to-exclude-you-but?source=feed#comment-679644 679644
But two sides are fighting, someone is always winning. The question is how we can be that "someone".]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 15:52:19 -0400
But two sides are fighting, someone is always winning. The question is how we can be that "someone".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161452-economists-and-the-fed-differ?source=feed#comment-676986 676986 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 04:30:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158755-the-looming-threat-of-peak-water-part-ii?source=feed#comment-675299 675299
3069 km^3 per 300 M inhabitants looks quite decent. In worst case we can get more from Canada, which has 3300 km^3 per 30M inhabitants.

But China and India are in really deep trouble.

4743 km^3 per 2400 M inhabitants looks a tight.]]> Mon, 14 Sep 2009 01:35:08 -0400
3069 km^3 per 300 M inhabitants looks quite decent. In worst case we can get more from Canada, which has 3300 km^3 per 30M inhabitants.

But China and India are in really deep trouble.

4743 km^3 per 2400 M inhabitants looks a tight.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159069-prospects-for-electric-cars?source=feed#comment-675295 675295
Tesla Motors currently expects at least 45 minutes for 300 miles distance. Even though I could live with that, I doubt most other people will have the same patience.]]> Mon, 14 Sep 2009 01:20:49 -0400
Tesla Motors currently expects at least 45 minutes for 300 miles distance. Even though I could live with that, I doubt most other people will have the same patience.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161189-obama-is-wrong-to-impose-punitive-tariffs-on-chinese-made-tires?source=feed#comment-674705 674705 Sun, 13 Sep 2009 15:08:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160785-death-comes-to-wal-mart-china?source=feed#comment-671505 671505 Fri, 11 Sep 2009 01:54:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160775-consumer-deleveraging?source=feed#comment-670543 670543
If the dollar suffers as a consequence, so be it! Let's just make the stuffs here instead of in China.]]> Thu, 10 Sep 2009 12:46:00 -0400
If the dollar suffers as a consequence, so be it! Let's just make the stuffs here instead of in China.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160840-a-much-needed-word-from-john-bogle-and-warren-buffett-on-short-term-markets?source=feed#comment-670527 670527 Thu, 10 Sep 2009 12:41:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160801-solar-is-gaining-momentum-will-the-u-s-be-left-in-the-dark?source=feed#comment-670522 670522
However, media noise attracts people's attention. China's recent 2GW sounds impressive, but won't be done for another decade. Within China, installed solar PV capacity is pathetically tiny at mere 100MW; and given that most wealthy Chinese live in concrete high rises, roof top is not going to make much sense there either.

Meanwhile, nobody is talking about the 800MW California plant that will be going online within a couple of years.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...]]> Thu, 10 Sep 2009 12:37:11 -0400
However, media noise attracts people's attention. China's recent 2GW sounds impressive, but won't be done for another decade. Within China, installed solar PV capacity is pathetically tiny at mere 100MW; and given that most wealthy Chinese live in concrete high rises, roof top is not going to make much sense there either.

Meanwhile, nobody is talking about the 800MW California plant that will be going online within a couple of years.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160444-the-curse-of-being-added-to-the-s-p-500?source=feed#comment-669190 669190 Wed, 09 Sep 2009 14:42:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160517-is-buffett-backing-away-from-stocks?source=feed#comment-669110 669110 Wed, 09 Sep 2009 13:53:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160298-chart-of-the-week-peak-hurricane-season-is-here?source=feed#comment-667169 667169

On Sep 08 01:46 PM dmz50 wrote:

> When NG hits a dollar, wake me up please so I can buy some UNG.]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 16:34:44 -0400

On Sep 08 01:46 PM dmz50 wrote:

> When NG hits a dollar, wake me up please so I can buy some UNG.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160298-chart-of-the-week-peak-hurricane-season-is-here?source=feed#comment-667162 667162 Tue, 08 Sep 2009 16:33:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160404-gold-breaks-1-000?source=feed#comment-667152 667152 Tue, 08 Sep 2009 16:29:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91100-forget-100-a-barrel-oil-will-plummet-to-30?source=feed#comment-663259 663259 Sat, 05 Sep 2009 14:05:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159326-i-m-slowly-rebuilding-my-chinese-position?source=feed#comment-657217 657217
Short FXI or CAF is way better.]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 17:07:19 -0400
Short FXI or CAF is way better.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159138-warren-buffett-s-stock-portfolio-part-iii?source=feed#comment-655103 655103
Management finally panics and throws tons of money at Wyeth.

Buffett will never buy this kind of capital destroyer.]]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:05:58 -0400
Management finally panics and throws tons of money at Wyeth.

Buffett will never buy this kind of capital destroyer.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158939-a-warren-buffett-stock-screen?source=feed#comment-654127 654127
1. Within his circle of competence, basically industries he could understand AND predict several years out;

2. Companies with enduring competitive advantages in industries with favorable economics, which require circle of competence in the first place to be identified;

3. Competent management with integrity;

4. A reasonable price for the stock.

All those "Buffett screens" merely looks for the least important Buffett criteria. You have to do the homework for the rest.]]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 01:07:41 -0400
1. Within his circle of competence, basically industries he could understand AND predict several years out;

2. Companies with enduring competitive advantages in industries with favorable economics, which require circle of competence in the first place to be identified;

3. Competent management with integrity;

4. A reasonable price for the stock.

All those "Buffett screens" merely looks for the least important Buffett criteria. You have to do the homework for the rest.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158592-warren-buffett-and-brett-favre-s-big-mistake?source=feed#comment-653982 653982 Sun, 30 Aug 2009 20:57:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155137-are-stocks-way-overbought?source=feed#comment-625330 625330
In fact, Nasdaq's RSI breached 80 in middle of November 1999 at 3000 level. Had you been short back then, well....

Nasdaq's RSI approached 80 again in early July and early September 2003, in the early stage of the last bull market.

Nasdaq's RSI closed above 75 in many instances between 2003 and today, only the very last instance (Oct 2007) led to a serious market crash.


On Aug 10 03:34 PM chap08 wrote:

> This is simply wrong. The NASDAQ hit an RSI of 75 in 2003, 2004,
> 2005 and 2006 without crashing.
>
> A high RSI can simply be a sign of strength in the market. It is
> misleading unless the market is oscillating.
>
> I'm not saying the market's going higher, I'm just saying decide
> on some other basis.]]> Tue, 11 Aug 2009 14:16:02 -0400
In fact, Nasdaq's RSI breached 80 in middle of November 1999 at 3000 level. Had you been short back then, well....

Nasdaq's RSI approached 80 again in early July and early September 2003, in the early stage of the last bull market.

Nasdaq's RSI closed above 75 in many instances between 2003 and today, only the very last instance (Oct 2007) led to a serious market crash.


On Aug 10 03:34 PM chap08 wrote:

> This is simply wrong. The NASDAQ hit an RSI of 75 in 2003, 2004,
> 2005 and 2006 without crashing.
>
> A high RSI can simply be a sign of strength in the market. It is
> misleading unless the market is oscillating.
>
> I'm not saying the market's going higher, I'm just saying decide
> on some other basis.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/341510-mad-hedge-fund-trader/21782-my-recommended-reading-list?source=feed#comment-622546 622546 by Edwin O. Thorp"

This is a must read. However, it's very hard to apply Kelly's Formula to portfolio allocation.]]> Sun, 09 Aug 2009 20:08:23 -0400 by Edwin O. Thorp"

This is a must read. However, it's very hard to apply Kelly's Formula to portfolio allocation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/341510-mad-hedge-fund-trader/21783-time-to-take-another-look-at-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-622545 622545 Sun, 09 Aug 2009 20:06:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154347-nine-roadblocks-to-a-bull-rally?source=feed#comment-619031 619031 Thu, 06 Aug 2009 22:15:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154420-in-defense-of-the-oracle-of-omaha?source=feed#comment-619011 619011 Thu, 06 Aug 2009 21:39:23 -0400