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dtravlos

dtravlos
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  • GoPro Shares Tumbling, While The Business Is Better And Cheaper Than Ever [View article]
    A couple points on GPRO. 1. I think management mishandled the earnings call by being a little too glib and not providing enough information, examples such as markets they will address in 2015 (i.e., give current penetration rates) or the software features or benefits to expect in 2015. The call sounded like an Apple call in the old days, but Jobs always delivered and Woodman hasn't proved himself yet. Management needs to instill confidence in investors and give the analysts information to write about/defend the stock. 2. I think they are being conservative on guidance. One of the issues is that the growth rate of 2014/2013 is "artificially" lower than it should be because of a production glitch in Q42012 that pushed sales into Q12013. That "inflated" 2013 so that the comparison when made to 2014 looked like sales were decelerating faster than they are. 3. It's not about the hardware, really; it is about the software. Sure, lots of companies can attach a camera to a helmet but the convenience/cool factor here is getting that video to the internet quickly. We've seen hardware companies crushed by companies with super user-experience software embedded in hardware, namely Apple vs everyone else (Nokia, Blackberry, Palm, etc). IF GoPro can continue to develop software that makes purchase of their cameras compelling, it fends off competition. My biggest complaint about GoPro is how the stock has been handled - early lock up release and vague conference calls. Despite that, I do own GoPro.
    Feb 10, 2015. 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm: Understanding The Risks Before You Buy [View article]
    Very well done article, Michael. I'd only add new product categories to your analysis. If new mobile product categories would emerge in the near term, that would boost QCOM. But that seems unlikely. Will QCOM meander down like AAPL or back up based on quality of the earnings they have? Even ARMH got hit.
    Apr 25, 2013. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Undervalued Mega Cap Cash Cows [View article]
    John, I enjoyed your article. I think there is a moment of irony, as well, putting Microsoft and Apple in the same boat. It is ironic at any moment for both of these companies' histories. I question two of your assumptions. First, you assume that Apple will increase their dividend. I hope you are correct that Apple will either do that or initiate a big buy back, but the deaf and resistant ears at Apple give me a cause for concern. Second, you say the management is talented and with the big cash balance, should do something. I agree. However, it seems that their actions are not indicating that there is leadership right now. There are many great things about Apple and I believe it is undervalued for sure, but if Apple traded on the numbers, it would be higher than it is today. There is so much pressure on this stock, and in my humble opinion, it has to do with loss of confidence.
    Apr 21, 2013. 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook: The (Negative) $250,000,000,000 Man [View article]
    Bill, terrific article.
    Great companies need evangelists as leaders both externally and internally. Jobs was all that. Look at the multiples on NetFlix, Amazon, Salesforce as cases in point. If Tim Cook can't do this, he should hire someone who can - again, internally or externally. Apple isn't even running great ad campaigns anymore. If Apple communicates on this earnings call real strategies around new product categories, the long-term value in current product categories, and a cash strategy that recognizes shareholders, then we may see some upside. I agree with Bill - the biggest hit and easiest strategy is to split the stock. What are they waiting for?
    Apr 20, 2013. 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Calendar Chaos Trade Of 2013 [View article]
    Nice article Jason. I, too, have written about the distortions product releases have on earnings. Apple had to push forward product releases - recall that last week in August and first week in September when all the phone manufacturers came out with new product. The holidays have defined the product cycle, and that isn't a bad thing. We, as investors, must shift our analysis as Jason says to take product releases into account.
    Apr 18, 2013. 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Using Share Buybacks To Support Its Stock Price? [View article]
    Support the share price? Would you say the stock is being supported at these levels?
    Apr 9, 2013. 10:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apparent Lack Of Negative Sentiment On Apple Makes It Hard To Call A Bottom [View article]
    good article.
    Mar 6, 2013. 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Time Right for Nokia? [View article]
    Very good points and conclusion. I really liked this article, and the analogy to IBM.

    Consumers buy services, what hardware can provide. Research in Motion had ONE app - mobile email, Nokia ignored them, and now their market caps are very similar. Nokia has held onto Symbian way too long. Its other consortium members, back then thought to be the most powerful association, have backed out.

    Consumers also will buy what the hardware can provide, but at an attractive price. Since you have been around, you remember that Nokia had great innovation on the handset side - innovative smart handsets or innovative music handsets - but they did not catch fire with the consumer because, for one, they were really expensive. Nokia has never grasped the concept of the perfect price points for consumer electronics that, yes, Apple, RIMM, and even Palm have.

    And, yes, for the same reason that Nokia let RIMM have mobile email, is the same reason why they are losing ground - the Not Invented Here DNA which you identify.

    Will Nokia be able to reinvent itself without the IBM-like shock?
    Sep 21, 2009. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's an Unconventional Idea: Sell Apple [View article]
    The objective is for iPhones to cannibalize iPods. It is a replacement cycle with the added benefit of recurring monthly revenues and a definite product life cycle (unlike iPod). It is brilliant.
    Jul 6, 2009. 08:10 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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12 Likes