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Greg Hogue

Greg Hogue
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  • Thoughts On Micron Earnings To Be Released After The Close [View article]
    Russ-

    I've been listening to you since your first article, and you surely have been a life changer.

    I thought you might like to see a visual representation of the past 5 earnings reports. It pretty much sums up your put position: http://bit.ly/1pw4PMF
    Jun 23 09:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Oh The Volatility! Getting Ready For Next Earnings Report [View instapost]
    Now that we are down around $24, I agree, the 25s have become a great buy. I'm layering the 25/26/27 with equal dollar amounts, but obviously more contracts at the higher strike prices.
    Feb 27 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Oh The Volatility! Getting Ready For Next Earnings Report [View instapost]
    The main reason I choose to sell before earnings is to lock in the highest price of volatility. I also choose to sell a majority of my holdings so that I limit the risk of a post earnings drop, but I also don't want to miss out on a pop either.

    This worked well for January, and although I missed out on some profitability, I slept a lot better knowing I had locked in profit rather than a gamble on earnings reaction.

    If we get a beat and a pop, it appears that the best plan is to sell the remaining holdings in the first 30 minutes of action at the open to capture the remaining volatility pricing and any sell off due to profit taking.

    Again, March has a slew of events coming up, so I may even trim a bit there if we go up significantly, but not buy. Now is the time to be buying!
    Feb 27 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: About Memory Prices, Both Spot And Contract [View article]
    Strong correlation number. Thanks for providing.
    Feb 26 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Are The Analysts Getting Cold Feet? [View article]
    Dothemathman is indeed correct here. Go to ivolatillity.com to track the changes in Implied Volatility (IV) and you can see that after earnings, it plummeted (~60% - 45%) which is one of the big factors affecting the price of your April options. Add in time decay, and his advice to convert into stock is very wise.

    I too hold NTM call options for April, but my cost basis is so low because I bought them back in September that I'm still quite in the green. My play is to sell into the next earnings report and capture the increase in IV on top of any increase in the underlying.

    If you want to hold and gamble a bit, there are several events early in Feb that could create a catalyst for the stock.
    Jan 28 05:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Are The Analysts Getting Cold Feet? [View article]
    Clever
    Jan 27 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Are The Analysts Getting Cold Feet? [View article]
    But like you've said, a beat is great and all, yet It's the guidance that matters.

    I'm very long, but taking a few chips off before the bell.
    Jan 7 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Amnesia In The Memory Market: Micron May Be A Good Short [View article]
    @MB-

    That is my favorite Author's Reply I have ever read.
    Jan 5 11:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: First Quarter Earnings And Other Goodies For 2014 [View article]
    stockstranger-

    Good find. I was wondering what today's catalyst was.

    Dothemathman-

    Volatility is very high (http://bit.ly/1cUA0yF). It should continue to get towards it's 65% IV 52wk high as Jan 7th approaches. All these Jan options are VERY expensive right now (Jan 10 are 67%!) and I would encourage everyone to avoid it except for a lotto play on deep out of the money. Even those are getting pricey...
    Dec 31 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: First Quarter Earnings And Other Goodies For 2014 [View article]
    I see it more of institutions/hedge funds selling to lock in their gains so they have some marketing material for next year
    Dec 30 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Reason To Worry About Micron? [View article]
    I don't believe Ichan or his holdings own any Micron. Could you reference a source if he does?
    Dec 23 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Why I Think It's Different This Time [View article]
    Been thinking to convert my options into stock at that point and that way I don't have to worry about time and don't have to worry about missing out on an earnings pop.
    Dec 11 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Why I Think It's Different This Time [View article]
    "It is a classic trading mistake to allow the market to psych you out and force you out of the option or the stock on a scary down tick. One must have absolute certainly and conviction in one's opinion and position."

    Great quote
    Dec 9 06:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Why I Think It's Different This Time [View article]
    Thanks for reaching out to him. Very helpful.

    I'm still trying to decide what to do before earnings. I am only in MU options and I'm fairly confident volatility will rise to about 60% right before earnings as has been the trend. That will make my options quite pricey...

    Obviously price momentum up until that point is also going to be a factor to consider. Right now, it seems like the smart play is to cash out my Feb calls right before earnings. But I'm really not sure what to do with my April calls, which is my largest holding (by # of contracts). What happened in October really was a bummer.

    Playing it smart is easy, but leaving money on the table could be really painful to look at. What is everyone else considering and why?
    Dec 8 07:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Einhorn Buys Into Micron, Should You? [View article]
    Slight uptick in volatility maybe?

    Based on last month's earnings volatility, I think now is a great time to buy any longer term options and sell them into earnings for maximum volatility play. (Currently around 37% and Oct. pre-earnings jumped to around 65%)
    Nov 29 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
44 Comments
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