Alexander Prisant

In Asia, 2010 Likely to Be as Bad as 1998

Comment from "Salacious" is correct. Growth is not the same thing as stock market performance.

Hang Seng and Hong Kong Exchange may be up this year, but they are way below 2007 levels. A recent tour of South America has convinced me that without question Asia is THE continent that will run away from the rest of the emerging (and developed) world in the 21st century economy.

China is genuinely out of recession--20 million more unemployed back to farming are a drop in the Chinese bucket. So whether you want to watch economic growth or the stock market, where would the author think is a better bet for 2010. London? Moscow? New York? Rio? Sorry, all alternatives look much more risky.

Disclosure: Hang Seng ETF, YZC, CNOOC

A S Prisant/Prism Ltd
wordsmithwars.blogspot...

Energy Impoverishment: Heading Back to Coal?

Hard to argue with the author's premise. That, combined with man''s 100,000 years of always taking the path requiring the least effort (and damn the consequences) and our spectacular inability to learn anything from our own history, virtually guarantee that we will opt for "cheap, plentiful" coal.

The fact this will (A) ultimately cause coal to be expensive (B) generate the highest asthma rates in human history and (C) help lead to places like Miami, Venice and Tokyo being totally submerged will not interfere with man's disinterest in the "common good."

Sandy Prisant/Prism/San Francisco

Chinese Private Equity: Will Bad Money Drive Out Good?

The author's theories are written out of context. This is not a mature and sophisticated capital market with a century or two under its belt. This is the Wild West of Capital Markets--China. It is acting in a thoroughly predictable manner for a young, inexperienced market.

When the US was about as old as the People's Republic, our Government organized something even more chaotic--the Oklahoma Land Rush.

Good Money? Bad Money? That may be relevant in the European Community, not in the case of a young, booming economy with lots of energy and little experience. Mistakes will be made and then heal and China's markets will ultimately evolve. Investors need to watch the timeline.

Making Sense of Robust Chinese Industrial Production

In China, we continue to see the first successful, centrally-planned economy in modern history--a stunning reversal of the past 100 years in dozens of countries.

At the very moment America is proving that the free market is not always efficient and does require some regulation to achieve stability, the Chinese Central Committee is demonstrating that total regulation of an economy can actually produce positive results even in challenging times.

In macro-economic terms, this is not far short of amazing.

Sandy Prisant/Prism Ltd

Disclosure: Holdings--CNOOC, YZC, 2883:HK, Hang Seng-H ETF

How Is China's Export Driven Economy Booming?

Two key points here. The author answers half his own question almost immediately by noting that deploying stimulus from a huge surplus is much more effective than a moderate stimulus from a huge deficit.

But the underlying point may be more crucial: For almost a century about 50 nations proved to us it was impossible to run an effective centralized economy. Whatever we may feel about China, no one can question their deft touch in recent years in banking, capital markets and monetary policy have disproven the one sure thing we thought we knew about international economics.

Bottom Line: A centralized economy can effectively compete with capitalism. That is an 8.2 on the Richter Scale.

A S Prisant/COO/Prism Ltd

T. Boone Pickens' Epic Wind Fail

Investors in energy are being overwhelmed by the trees, while few "analysts" are talking about the forest.

The issue is not about a more narrow focus on some obscure aspect of wind power.

The issues are:
1. The White House, let alone Pickens, does not have a viable energy plan. It does not appreciate nuclear's excellent record for three decades and is still buying into the PR stunt entitled "clean coal".

2. Finally, the White House and most potential investors are not grasping the dirty little secret that wind, solar and all alternative energy sources combined cannot deliver more than 15-20% of America's energy needs--even by the end of this century.

Bottom-Line: We need to get out of "trees" like this article and begin to understand the "forest."

A S Prisant/Prism Ltd

Latest Green Shoots Eaten by Black Crows of Recession

Mr. Richman is right. While the Bush administration spent its last 6 months struggling to concoct a "legacy", every single one of our major trading partners were quietly letting their currencies devalue against the dollar to shelter their exports. We did nothing--and wound up with the strongest dollar in years at the precise moment our entire economy was at the very edge of the precipice. Is that free market efficiency or American stupidity?

For the uninitiated, the alternative to a unilateral free trade policy is NOT protectionism; it is an internationally coordinated free trade policy. Those with limited attention spans and a child-like naivete about free markets as wild west carnivals, do not understand this--to our universal and long-term detriment.

Alexander Prisant/COO/Prism Ltd

Clint Cox: Digging for Opportunities in Rare Earths

A great deal of work went into this interview and Mr. Cox clearly has a level of knowledge in this sector that few could hope to match.

Given all that, I hope I am not being churlish in pointing out that this articles gives an aura of an open market discussion of freelytradable natural resources, unfettered by government intervention, in perpetuity.

Friends, may I humbly remind us all that we are talking about the People's Republic of China, where the government, often with great vision and a deft hand, nonetheless still controls all commodities and prices. All commodities and prices.

A S Prisant, COO/Prism Ltd
Investor, Hong Kong Stock Exchange

'Less Bad Is Good': The Mantra of Today's Energy Bull

There is no debate. Perception is reality--particularly on Wall Street. It is the only factor that gives the stock market any validity at all in signalling economic trends, vs. trailing but hard government statistics.

A S Prisant/COO/Prism Ltd

U.S. Needs to Return to Its Manufacturing Base

This looks like just another business article. It is not--it touches on the economic revolution we must undertake. While we cannot control total product quality or international policy manipulations, as proposed here , we do have to regain manufacturing independence, while gaining energy independence, while restructuring the entire financial pillar of our system.

The undertaking is massive--probably unprecedented in American history, but ionly thru this "root and branch" renewal (over a decade or more) can we find the engine(s) that will pull us out of the mess to which our own poor economic policies and deregulation have brought us.

Sandy Prisant, COO, Prism/San Francisco