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Apple at $135: Low Hanging Fruit

Low hanging fruit can always fall lower. Mo-mo stocks get hurt worst in a bear market. So, unless you are saying the bear is over, then AAPL is not a safe place for capital ...

Total Music Threatens Apple’s Music Distribution Revenue

Mark, you make some great points. However, you are making this black and white. I too was a huge skeptic of subscription based music -- but it has been much more successful than analysts ever anticipated. Thus, I am not ruling it out.

Second, you can focus on the $90 fee to the labels, but so long as it is "Free" to the consumer, it matters not who pays the labels or how much they pay. The bottom line is we cannot discuss the details of Total Music until they actually have some details. Your points are well taken, but you are assuming 99% of what the platform will be. All we know for sure at this point is that the top 5 labels are discussing a label owned platform. It is still the idea generating stage. When we have a final product to critique, then we can. Until then, I still believe this is a step in a hurtful direction for AAPL ... not short term, but long term. I look forward to revisiting as the details emerge ...

Total Music Threatens Apple’s Music Distribution Revenue

For those below who have married AAPL, go to iTunes and search for Radiohead.

It is entirely possible to succeed without iTunes. And the more music is free or pay-what-you-want in other places, people will download elsewhere and import to iTunes to use on their iPod ... Free.

Total Music Threatens Apple’s Music Distribution Revenue

For those below who have married AAPL, go to iTunes and search for Radiohead.

It is entirely possible to succeed without iTunes. And the more music is free or pay-what-you-want in other places, people will download elsewhere and import to iTunes to use on their iPod ... Free.

Total Music Threatens Apple’s Music Distribution Revenue

Then you would be competing with your clients (i.e., content providers), and they would all refuse to let you sell their music.

This option has already been slammed in thousands of other publications. Do some research ...

Total Music Threatens Apple’s Music Distribution Revenue

If your music is free, what new service will be better? That's not so smart. Have you seen BitTorrent? The platform is ugly and complicated to use. Hasn't really stopped millions of people from downloading on BitTorrent and importing to iTunes ... for free.

If iTunes runs at break-even (which I have not researched to respond here), then they will be in the red if a free service becomes viable.

Again, iPod is the current app killer (Sony Walkman once was). I am only pointing out that todays AAPL bulls have their blinders on like an SNE shareholder may have 10 years ago ...

I am not predicting that Total Music is the endgame, but it is a step in the right direction.

Total Music Threatens Apple’s Music Distribution Revenue

People want music free. Compare the amount of illegal downloads to iTunes sales. The HUGE difference, coupled with vertigo dropping CD sales, proves you are incorrect.

I am 30 years old and roughly 90% of my peers haven't paid for music since high school. Yes. I want to keep my music like I can keep the TV shows I like ... and I pay a subscription fee for those TV shows.

Creativity and innovation will bring us the next stage of the music business ...

Total Music Threatens Apple’s Music Distribution Revenue

I didn't expect the AAPL mega-bulls (which I am as well) to swallow anything anti-Apple. The point of my article is that everyone I know expects iTunes to dominate the music business for all eternity, and I think Rubin is on to something that may (as usual) surprise people who only see what is working today.

AAPL is being greedy because they are not willing to negotiate their distribution fee (which happens to be 800 to 1500 basis points above industry average). When business partners refuse to negotiate, new opportunities are sought. Thus, rather than keep the record labels content, I believe AAPL is encouraging competition ... which as you know inevitably decreases margins.

I agree that all current attempts to compete with iTunes have "sucked horribly." However, I still believe that as soon as someone makes music seem "free," we will see a major threat to Apple's music industry dominance. As the price of hardware inevitably decreases, the potential to bake in subscription fees is not so far fetched. And if you can get 75% of your music "free" from Total Music or whomever (which, by the way is more than 75% of the Top Selling music on iTunes), how much music will AAPL have left to sell?

I still believe the endgame is giving away albums for free as marketing material for touring, merch, and publishing. I believe Total Music is the first major push to assign the value "free" to recorded music. When all is said and done, you may be correct and advertising may play a large roll. Advertisers may contribute to the baked in subscription fee.

Time will tell ...

Total Music Threatens Apple’s Music Distribution Revenue

I didn't expect the AAPL mega-bulls (which I am as well) to swallow anything anti-Apple. The point of my article is that everyone I know expects iTunes to dominate the music business for all eternity, and I think Rubin is on to something that may (as usual) surprise people who only see what is working today.

AAPL is being greedy because they are not willing to negotiate their distribution fee (which happens to be 800 to 1500 basis points above industry average). When business partners refuse to negotiate, new opportunities are sought. Thus, rather than keep the record labels content, I believe AAPL is encouraging competition ... which as you know inevitably decreases margins.

I agree that all current attempts to compete with iTunes have "sucked horribly." However, I still believe that as soon as someone makes music seem "free," we will see a major threat to Apple's music industry dominance. As the price of hardware inevitably decreases, the potential to bake in subscription fees is not so far fetched. And if you can get 75% of your music "free" from Total Music or whomever (which, by the way is more than 75% of the Top Selling music on iTunes), how much music will AAPL have left to sell?

I still believe the endgame is giving away albums for free as marketing material for touring, merch, and publishing. I believe Total Music is the first major push to assign the value "free" to recorded music. When all is said and done, you may be correct and advertising may play a large roll. Advertisers may contribute to the baked in subscription fee.

Time will tell ...