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Molehead

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  • Apple: A Low-Risk Bet On $130B Of Earnings Within 10 Years [View article]
    "The risk of commoditization in the smart phone market is not a measurable risk for the next ten years."

    It's not difficult to imagine an analyst making a similar statement regarding Blackberry several years ago.

    I hope you are right (longtime AAPL shareholder and frequent trader of AAPL LEAPS), but the pace of change in this sector is far too fast to predict anything beyond a couple years.
    Jul 18, 2014. 05:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Keep Apple In Their Portfolios [View article]
    Why does seemingly everyone feel compelled to publish their opinion on AAPL? This article, like the vast majority of AAPL columns, adds nothing new, fresh, original or insightful.

    Just stop.
    Apr 17, 2013. 10:27 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Offers Investors An Annualized Gross Return Of Up To 25% Over The Next 5 Years [View article]
    Just out this afternoon....

    "Global PC shipments fell 13.9% Y/Y in Q1 to 76.9M units, according to IDC. That surpasses Q4's 6.4% drop and Q3's 8.6% decline, and is steep even in light of IDC's recent commentary. "It seems clear that the Windows 8 (MSFT) launch not only didn’t provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market," says an IDC analyst."

    PCs face a long, slow but steady fade to oblivion, and MSFT's mobile strategy is a disaster. THAT is why it is so cheap, and deserves to be.
    Apr 10, 2013. 05:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Ideal Selection For An Overbought Market [View article]
    Bret,

    I enjoy your columns and insight. However, I must respectfully disagree with your stance on MSFT. To adopt your style, here are four reasons that MSFT has limited upside:

    1) Windows 8 is off to a tepid start. This wouldn't be so bad if the PC market was healthy, but PCs face a long and slow but steady decline as the world goes mobile.

    2) At best, Windows 8 Mobile can become a distant 3rd mobile OS. MSFT faces competition from Blackberry, Samsung's Tizen and Firefox Mobile OS for 3rd place.

    3) As for tablets, Surface is not quite to the level of Zune and Kiln - yet - but demand is weak for this overpriced product with a confusing OS mix (RT and Pro).

    4) Steve Ballmer. Under his 'leadership', MSFT completely whiffed on mobile, search and social, and produced a number of embarrassing flops (the aforementioned Zune and Kiln, Vista, Microsoft Mobile, etc)

    While downside is limited, this stock should only be bought for the dividend.
    Mar 7, 2013. 04:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Plunge Is Beginning Of Bad Trend [View article]
    David,

    As I watch SBUX climbed to over $58 today, I just want to thank you. I have found you to be a very solid contrarian indicator.

    Perhaps you'd like to update your 'sell' thesis?
    Mar 7, 2013. 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Google Checkmate Apple With Motorola Move? [View article]
    This article has nothing to do with the headline "Google Checkmates Apple With Motorola Move".

    There's little in the article to support your conclusion that "Google will outpace Apple, hands down." In fact, there's little in the article that's new or novel in any way.
    Oct 3, 2012. 10:11 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seagate Technology Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Rancour - I had the same thoughts. This is basic stuff that any STX investor should know. It makes the entire article not credible.
    Jul 23, 2012. 11:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Is Now a Good Time to Invest? [View article]
    Another potential future catalyst....

    How much longer can the world's 2nd most highly valued public company remain out of the Dow Ind Average? It's not a stretch to see AAPL overtaking XOM following current quarter results in Jan 12. Even if it doesn't, AAPL is too valuable, and too iconic, to be outside the DIA.

    I believe the DIA will seek to add AAPL, and in order for this to happen, AAPL will have to split, as the DIA is price-weighted. The AAPL board, without Steve Jobs, will be more receptive to such a move.

    Both events - a split and addition to the DIA - would serve as strong catalysts.
    Dec 2, 2011. 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Finally Be In Trouble: Competition Stepping Up In Tablet Market [View article]
    I have no idea, other that to say that the analysts were wrong.

    However, I put more stock in actual numbers than analyst estimates. And actual numbers show that the iPad, in AAPLs FY11 4Q, grew 164% Y/Y and 19% sequentially. Given AAPL estimates for the current quarter, it is reasonable to expect further strong Y/Y and sequential growth.

    I would expect the iPad to follow a similar path as the iPod. The first iPod, if memory serves, was $500. This was followed by new models in different configurations and lower price points. I think we'll see the same with the iPad. Maybe we'll see the current models drop $100 when the next iterations are introduced. We could also see smaller iPads. Of course we won't see an iPad shuffle, but you get the idea.

    We cannot ignore the rapid enterprise adoption of the iPad. Purely anecdotal, but I am seeing the iPad more and more every day at work - by colleagues, clients and suppliers. I would not expect to see the Amazon offerings made much of a dent in the business place.

    Lastly, AAPL has many growth drivers, but the primary product fueling growth is the iPhone. iPhone 4S demand remains very strong. The iPhone 4 and iPhone 3GS are also showing strong demand in response to price cuts. The Mac continues to grow at multiples higher than PC growth. Even if - a big if - iPad demand levels off, the AAPL growth story remains intact.

    At $380+, even if we somehow ignore the cash and equivalents, AAPL's valuation is less than its growth rate. I hardly consider AAPL to be in 'trouble'.
    Nov 11, 2011. 08:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Finally Be In Trouble: Competition Stepping Up In Tablet Market [View article]
    AAPL does not provide iPhone and iPad sales estimates, so they did not miss 'their' estimates. In fact, they soundly exceeded their revenue and EPS estimates. They did miss analyst estimates. This was widely attributed to the people holding off on iPhone purchases in anticipation of the next iPhone, which turned out to be the iPhone 4S. They also provided revenue and EPS estimates for the current quarter which exceeded analyst estimates - a very rare event - which somehow gets lost in all the noise.
    Nov 11, 2011. 03:47 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy Microsoft Is Now [View article]
    Think about this for a moment. Do you really have any confidence in a mobile OS share projection going out all the way to 2015? Imagine a four year projection back in 2007. Would such an estimate have included Android or iOS. Android had yet to be released and the iPhone was new. Would a prediction made back then have forecasted the dramatic declines of Symbian and Blackberry? No.

    I guess that's why there are LEAPS.
    Oct 20, 2011. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy Microsoft Is Now [View article]
    "Google's Android, Apple’s iPhone and Microsoft are anticipated to be the dominant operating systems globally."

    According to whom? Microsoft hopes to be in the top three - someday - but that is hardly assured, and it is a long way off if it even comes to pass.

    In addition to being opinion, rather than fact, you also are using a faulty comparison. 'Android' is an OS, iPhone is a smartphone, and you don't even specify which Microsoft product, and simply say 'Microsoft'.

    Not a very crisp article.
    Oct 19, 2011. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Excited for Windows Tablets [View article]
    Remember Microsoft Courier? Microsoft Surface?

    Windows 8 is vaporware, which Microsoft has mastered.
    Jun 5, 2011. 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Most Undervalued Equity in Techdom [View article]
    Nice article.

    Just one nit.....your point regarding the iPad remains valid, but I believe that the Xbox Kinect now holds the title of fastest selling consumer device.

    It's counterintuitive, but the cash is holding back AAPL. We need more clarity on plans for the cash holdings. As crazy as it sounds, I can't help but wonder if AAPL has designs on some major acquisition(s), such as Disney or DISH or Comcast or Time Warner. And how about the mobile payments space....would AAPL consider an acquisition of Mastercard?

    Should be interesting. Long AAPL.
    May 29, 2011. 10:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: Apple's P/E Ratio Falls to Lowest Level Since Financial Crisis Despite 92% Earnings Growth [View article]
    Testify, Andy! Nice work.

    The cash and equivalents do need to be addressed by AAPL at some point. Though its counterintuitive, the cash pile is a tremendous drag on the stock. It is simply not AAPL's style to make large acquisitions, but you have to think they are looking at making a big play, or plays. Would AAPL be interested in content providers? Even Disney is not out of the realm of possibilities. It won't be long before AAPL is sitting on $100B. Otherwise, they need to consider a dividend. Cash flow could easily support a 3% dividend, or about $10/share.

    Long AAPL. This is a $500 stock, easily. The market will eventually catch up to the fundamentals.
    May 13, 2011. 10:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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